Diamond 2015

Overview of Democratic Recession

  • Author: Larry Diamond, founding coeditor of the Journal of Democracy, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and director of Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.

  • Historical Context: 2014 marked the 40th anniversary of Portugal’s Revolution of the Carnations, which initiated what Samuel P. Huntington called the "third wave" of global democratization.

Global Democratic Landscape

  • Democracy in 1974:

    • About 30% of independent states were electoral democracies; roughly 46 democracies worldwide.

    • Most were in the rich West; a few developing democracies included India, Sri Lanka, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela, Israel, and Turkey.

  • Democracy Growth (1975-2007):

    • Steady or expanding number of democracies during this period; unprecedented growth.

    • Various democracies categorized as illiberal or deemed “competitive authoritarian” regimes (Levitsky and Way).

  • Freedom Trends:

    • Average freedom level in 1974 was 4.38 (7-point scale with 1 being most free and 7 being most repressive). Improved to 3.85 by 1990 and peaked at 3.22 in 2005.

    • Post-2006: No net expansion in electoral democracies; numbers oscillated between 114 to 119 (about 60% of world states). Average level of freedom declined slightly to about 3.30.

Perspectives on Democratic Trends

  • Interpretation of Stability:

    • Equilibrium period where democracy neither expanded nor declined.

    • Notable durability of democratic regimes despite adverse conditions (poverty, strategic pressures).

    • Levitsky and Way’s view: Many failures of democracy were actually regressions of previously authoritarian regimes.

  • Concern for Decline:

    • Examination of democratic stagnation and decline in “gray zone” countries, where classification as democracies is ambiguous.

    • Deterioration of established democracies (e.g., United States).

Methodology in Measuring Democracy

  • Categorization of Regimes:

    • Democratic classification requires agreement among scholars; the variability of democracy creates challenges.

    • Comparative studies often involve a continuum; no system is perfectly fair. Key components include electoral competition, media access, and administrative fairness.

    • Methodological challenges in determining democratic failures.

Democratic Recession Breakdown

  • Global Context (2006-Present):

    • Initiating a democratic recession characterized by stagnation and decline.

    • Breakdown statistics: From 1974-2014, approximately 29% of democracies collapsed; 35% among non-Western democracies.

    • Rising failure rates from 12.7% (previous 15 years) to 17.6% in 2000-2014 period.

  • Detail on Democratic Failures:

    • Breakdown instances included overt coups, authoritarian consolidations, and gradual erosions of rights.

    • Distinctions between blatant military coups and subtle dictatorships.

Examples of Democratic Breakdown

  • Global Instances of Breakdown (2000-2014):

    • 2014 highlighted cases include Turkey, Bangladesh, Thailand, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.

    • Crucial observation: Most failures resulted from democratic executive abuses rather than outright military coups.

    • Executive overreach led to weakening institutional frameworks.

Trends in Freedom and Rule of Law

  • Decline in Freedom (2006-Present):

    • Freedom House reports show more countries regressed than improved in freedom annually from 2006-2013.

    • Notable declines in sub-Saharan Africa; 60% of countries experienced freedom regression.

  • Governance Issues:

    • Poor governance as a pervasive explanation for declines in democracy and freedom.

    • Assessment of countries' performance in transparency and rule of law highlights systemic issues across various regions.

Focus on Strategic Swing States

  • Definition: Swing states defined as countries with populations over 50 million or economies over US$200 billion.

  • Freedom Scores:

    • Declines by 2013 in numerous swing states including South Korea, Turkey, and Venezuela.

  • Overall Decline: Reports indicate stagnation in democratization efforts.

Authoritarian Evolution

  • Deepening Authoritarianism:

    • The prevalence of more coordinated authoritarian responses, particularly in Russia and China.

    • Sophisticated suppression of dissent and utilization of state-run media to fend off criticisms.

    • Notable examples of entrenched power through manipulation of frameworks supporting freedom, including anti-democratic laws.

Democratic Retreat in Established Democracies

  • Challenges in the United States:

    • Legislation processing issues, dwindling public trust in government, and low voter participation.

    • Declining international efforts towards democracy promotion impacting perceptions of U.S. governance.

Future of Democracy

  • Prognostic Outlook:

    • Potential for deeper democratic challenges ahead, but hope remains for democratic aspirations.

    • Public support for democracy may still exist, pointing towards future establishment resilience.

    • Importance of reinforcing democratic structures in emerging democracies and stabilizing existing ones.

    • Urgency in international support tailored towards nurturing democracy within at-risk regions.

Conclusion

  • Overall, the narrative emphasizes the fragility of democratic values across various global contexts while hinting at possible roads to recovery and the necessity for renewed efforts to fortify democracy worldwide.