110+115:Gordon, "'Assad must go': Syria 2011..." (2020)

Chapter 7: "Assad Must Go" - Overview

  • Background

    • In 2011, the Syrian conflict escalated, leading the U.S. to signal support for regime change.
    • On August 18, 2011, President Obama announced that Bashar al-Assad must lead a democratic transition or resign.

  • U.S. Position

    • Obama emphasized the U.S. could not impose changes but would support the Syrian people's desire for democracy.
    • Key Quote: "It is up to the Syrian people to choose their own leaders."
    • The U.S. objective was to help create a Syria that was democratic and inclusive.

  • Sanctions Implemented

    • Sanctions included freezing Syrian assets, banning U.S. investments, and prohibiting oil imports.
    • Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, anticipated these would deeply impact the Assad regime’s finances.

  • Historical Context of U.S. Involvement

    • U.S. had previously supported regime changes in the Middle East, marking a shift in policy priorities.
    • Concerns risen about the consequences of failing to oust Assad rather than the aftermath of his ouster.

  • Challenges Facing U.S. Policy

    • U.S. support for opposition forces increased but faced limitations and failed to significantly destabilize Assad’s regime.
    • Assad's resilience showcased by his ability to maintain power through violence and alliances with Iran and Russia.

  • Consequences of Intervention Discussion

    • Proponents of military action argued earlier interventions could have prevented mass killings.
    • Arguments underestimated the requirements and complexities of regime change, often leading to further escalation from Assad and his allies.

  • Misjudgment of Regional Dynamics

    • The impact of sectarianism and the strategic leveling of forces were often overlooked.
    • The civil war intensified, and despite the perceived U.S. military support, the Syrian opposition could not unify against Assad.

  • Obama’s Hesitance for Military Intervention

    • Initially focused on better relations with Assad, the U.S. administration hesitated to fully support opposition forces to avoid appearing as foreign interventionists.
    • Key Quote: Obama aimed for a U.S. role that was a “behind the scenes” supporter rather than an overt military presence.

  • Escalation of Brutality by Assad

    • Assad’s increasing use of violence against protesters shifted the U.S. strategy towards calling for Assad's resignation publicly.

  • International Relations and Support for Assad

    • Russia and Iran increased their support of Assad, demonstrating that regional power dynamics profoundly affected U.S. objectives.
    • U.S. diplomacy became increasingly complicated as Moscow's stance diverged sharply from Washington's goals.

  • Crisis of Credibility

    • U.S. support for the Syrian opposition remained nebulous, and public declarations created high expectations without backing actions that could fulfill them.
    • More senior officials began to privately support stronger actions against Assad but faced internal opposition.

  • Military Action Discussions

    • Various proposals for military enforcement of a no-fly zone or airstrikes were debated but ultimately rejected due to concerns of escalation and public backlash.

  • Shift in U.S. Strategy

    • By 2016, the U.S. policy objective shifted from active regime change to a more tempered approach focusing on humanitarian aid and countering ISIS, while still attempting to stabilize the region.

  • Trump Administration’s Approach

    • Under President Trump, U.S. policy moved away from active regime change efforts in Syria, indicating a significant shift in foreign policy priorities towards focusing primarily on counter-terrorism.