HM - NUMERICAL

🎯 THE REAL GOAL (IMPORTANT)

You are NOT trying to “understand everything”

You are trying to:
👉 recognise the question type → apply the exact steps → present it cleanly

🔥 STEP 1 — IDENTIFY THE ONLY NUMERICAL TYPES THAT EXIST

From your papers + guide, there are only ~5 types:

🔵 TYPE 1 — Health Economics (ALWAYS COMES UP)

You MUST be able to do this perfectly.

What you need to master:

  • QALY

  • CE ratio

  • CUA ratio

  • final decision

👉 This is guaranteed marks every year

🔵 TYPE 2 — Decision Trees

  • multiply probabilities

  • expected value

  • compare options

🔵 TYPE 3 — Markov Models

  • read transition matrix

  • interpret states

  • sometimes modify matrix

🔵 TYPE 4 — SIR / Differential Equations

  • write equations

  • modify model (vaccination etc.)

🔵 TYPE 5 — Survival Analysis

  • Kaplan-Meier calculation

  • interpret survival curve

🚨 STEP 2 — STOP DOING THIS (COMMON MISTAKE)

❌ Randomly doing questions
❌ Reading solutions passively
❌ Trying to “figure it out each time”

👉 This wastes time and causes panic in exam

✅ STEP 3 — DO THIS INSTEAD (THIS IS THE KEY)

🔁 “TEMPLATE LEARNING METHOD”

For EACH question type:

🧩 Step A — Build ONE PERFECT TEMPLATE

Take ONE past paper question and:

👉 Rewrite the solution like this:

Example (Health Econ)

Step 1 — Calculate QALYs

  • Baseline: …

  • Treatment X: …

Step 2 — CE Ratio

  • Write formula

  • Substitute

  • Answer

Step 3 — CUA Ratio

  • Same structure

Step 4 — Conclusion

  • “Treatment X is preferred because…”

👉 THIS becomes your template

🧩 Step B — Memorise the STRUCTURE (not numbers)

You should be able to say:

“Okay this is a health econ question → I do QALY → CE → CUA → conclusion”

WITHOUT thinking.

🧩 Step C — Repeat SAME TYPE 2–3 times

Don’t jump topics.

👉 Do:

  • 2–3 health econ questions

  • THEN move on

🔥 STEP 4 — MASTER PRESENTATION (THIS IS WHERE MARKS ARE)

Your lecturer is marking for:

  • structure

  • clarity

  • method

EVERY answer should look like this:

✔ Step 1 — Define

“QALY = life × QoL”

✔ Step 2 — Calculate

Show clean working

✔ Step 3 — Result

Final number (boxed mentally)

✔ Step 4 — Interpret

“Treatment X is more cost-effective because…”

👉 This alone can boost you a grade band

🧠 STEP 5 — MAKE A “RECOGNITION SHEET”

Before exam, you should instantly recognise:

If question says:

  • “life expectancy + QoL + cost”
    👉 HEALTH ECON

  • “probabilities + outcomes”
    👉 DECISION TREE

  • “matrix + states”
    👉 MARKOV

  • “S(t), I(t)”
    👉 SIR

  • “survival / censored”
    👉 KAPLAN-MEIER

👉 This removes 80% of exam stress

⏱ STEP 6 — TIME-EFFICIENT PLAN (FOR YOU)

You have 5 modules, so:

DAY STRUCTURE (for this module)

1 hour block:

20 mins
→ review template

30 mins
→ do 1–2 questions

10 mins
→ rewrite solution cleanly

PRIORITY ORDER:

  1. Health economics (highest return)

  2. Decision trees

  3. Markov

  4. Survival

  5. SIR

🚨 FINAL TRUTH (IMPORTANT)

You don’t fail this exam because it’s hard.

You lose marks because:

  • messy structure

  • forgetting steps

  • not interpreting answers

🎯 WHAT “EXAM READY” LOOKS LIKE

You see a question and instantly think:

👉 “Oh this is a CE/CUA question”
👉 “Step 1 QALY, Step 2 CE, Step 3 CUA, Step 4 conclusion”

No hesitation. No guessing.