Electoral college

Overview of the Electoral College

  • Often misunderstood by Americans, referred to as the "mysteries of the electoral college".

  • Lecture covers:

    • Origins of the electoral college

    • Math and how it functions

    • The electoral process and implications of the current system

Understanding the Electoral College

  • Definition: A group designated to formally elect the President of the United States, not the direct popular vote.

  • Voting Process: Voters select electors who then cast votes for the president.

  • Confusion: Many think when they vote for a president, they are voting directly for that candidate, which is not the case.

Historical Context

  • Founding Concerns: The electoral college was established due to a mistrust of the general populace and a lack of communication during the period.

    • Communication barriers: No modern mass communication, slow information spread.

    • Founding Fathers' skepticism of public knowledge about candidates.

  • Influence of Slavery: The voting system also reflects historical compromises related to slavery, particularly the 3/5 Compromise.

Why Not Direct Elections?

  • Opposition to Direct Vote: Arguments against direct presidential elections suggested by founding figures like Mason.

    • Mason compared the idea to letting a blind man choose colors.

  • Separation of Powers: Concerns about too much power consolidating in Congress opposed parliamentary systems where the legislature chooses the executive.

  • Electors' Role: Created as a trusted body of individuals who can act in the national interest, not tied to Congress.

Electoral Votes Calculation

  • Determining Electors: Each state's number of electors equals its total number of Senators (always 2) plus the number of Representatives in the House, which varies based on the state's population.

    • Example: California has 54 electoral votes (previously 55), change due to census data.

  • Total Electoral Votes: The entire electoral college consists of 538 votes, requiring a majority of 270 to win.

The District of Columbia (DC)

  • DC's Unique Status: Washington, DC is not a state but has electoral votes due to the 23rd Amendment, granting it 3 electors.

    • Residents do not have full congressional representation.

  • Statehood Discussion: DC's potential statehood poses challenges due to existing constitutional amendments.

The Winner-Takes-All System

  • State Vote Dynamics: The majority of states use a winner-takes-all method, where the presidential candidate winning the popular vote in a state gets all of its electoral votes.

    • Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes differently.

  • Historical Cases: Instances where candidates won the presidency despite losing the popular vote (e.g., George W. Bush in 2000, Donald Trump in 2016).

Swing States and Election Strategy

  • Battleground States: Candidates focus on swing states that can switch between parties.

    • Examples include Florida, Ohio.

  • Electoral Map Analysis: Candidates avoid campaigning in states they perceive as secure for one party; efforts are concentrated on battlegrounds instead.

Implications for Voting Participation

  • Importance of Voting: Every vote counts, not only in presidential elections but in local governments as well.

  • Political Engagement: Increased participation from diverse demographics can influence political behavior and policy decisions.

Challenges to Changing the Electoral College

  • Constitutional Amendments: Altering the electoral college requires a supermajority approval in Congress and state legislatures.

  • Political Climate: Due to bipartisan disagreements, substantial reforms to the electoral system are unlikely in the near future.