Lecture Notes on Data Interpretation, Research Justification, and Causality (comm research Sep 18, 2025)

iClicker troubleshooting and class logistics

  • Instructor notes that some students still have eye clicker issues; TA will coordinate with instructor to troubleshoot

  • Instructor can check on the back end for: registration status, whether the class is registered with iClicker

  • TA will contact iClicker tech rep if problems persist; rep is described as very helpful

  • Students should first report issues to the TA, who will collect information and pass it along

  • The IT support role is limited; the team will troubleshoot as a RA/TA collective, but students should go to the TA first to document details

  • If a student misses sessions, that will be considered in grading distribution; the instructor looks at patterns rather than penalizing isolated absences

  • Example given: a student (Nick) skipped the first three weeks, then started attending; the professor acknowledges life happens and will address it rather than punishing pattern alone

  • Current AVP (audio-visual and technology) metrics show about 86 ext{%} engagement, with time spent on technology; a rep was consulted on showing full results, but the provider doesn’t support displaying full results

Instrumental vs symbolic value: data interpretation exercise

  • The instructor introduces the concept with a data excerpt from a Newsweek article about AI in learning

  • Report details: 85 ext{ ext{%}} of teachers and students aged 14–22 use AI in some capacity; 66 ext{ ext{%}} in 2024; among students, 89 ext{ ext{%}} use AI for school work vs 77 ext{ ext{%}} the previous year

  • Instrumental value: numbers used to make concrete physical observations about the real world to guide decisions

  • Symbolic value: numbers used to reinforce or explain sociocultural beliefs, frame policy decisions, or represent broader attitudes

  • Example question: classify the given data as instrumental or symbolic; a student (Ella) answers ‘instrumental’ because the data show a real-world observation

  • Follow-up question: what value do we place in these data? This is trickier and invites scrutiny of data provenance and interpretation

Data sources and credibility: evaluating sources and language

  • Data source example: 2025 How America Learns report; data labeled as coming from Newsweek-like reporting

  • The instructor asks: what is the dataset, who produced it, and what is its trustworthiness?

  • Student (Gabby) admits not knowing much about the 2025 report but recognizes it as a data point; encourages asking for more information about the source and methodology

  • Additional data cited: as of 2024, 31% of public schools have a written AI-use policy; data from the “Post Panel,” a nationally representative survey of public K–12 schools; 18% of schools have certain policies (exact phrasing in transcript is imperfect)

  • The lack of a clear paradigm makes schools vulnerable to AI misuse; emphasis on asking about data origin, representativeness, and language used in reporting

  • The source mentions Child Trends (an advocacy organization translating education research into policy) and notes that the source’s language (e.g., “Post Panel, a nationally representative survey of public K–12 schools”) requires careful interpretation

  • The instructor encourages reading data critically, asking: Where do data come from? Who collected them? How were they analyzed? Is there peer review?

  • Peer review is introduced as a “gold standard” in publishing; overview of the process: author submits to editor, editor assigns to reviewers, reviewers provide comments, papers may be revised and re-submitted; timelines can be long (months)

  • The instructor notes limitations: peer review is not perfect; there are cases of false or flawed studies; Retraction Watch tracks such cases; some research may be produced without peer review (e.g., certain government panels or survey work)

  • Examples given of data sources lacking peer review or undergoing different vetting processes; emphasis on understanding data provenance and the vetting process

  • This discussion leads into a planned activity: students will read data critically and be prepared for a quiz the next day

Why do we do research? purposes, novelty, and impact

  • Research aims to provide answers to questions with a certain degree of certainty; justification often ties to predictive capacity and understanding causal trends in society

  • The instructor shares a personal anecdote from advertising: questions at work about consumer behavior that could not be answered in the workplace; pursued research to satisfy curiosity and inform practice

  • Core justification questions in research: Is the question worth asking? Can the study be novel or contribute to theory? Is the work feasible given resources and constraints?

  • Key criteria for evaluating research impact:

    • Novelty: originality and creativity; contributes to ongoing discussions or theories

    • Theory contribution: builds on or extends existing theories; helps integrate findings into broader knowledge; identifies gaps for future work

    • Feasibility: resources, time, tools, expertise available; research is often incremental due to practical limits

  • The speaker introduces the idea of theory-building and relation to broader knowledge: theory helps identify variables, connect findings, and explain relationships

  • There is a tension between novelty and feasibility; researchers may be overly ambitious, so feasibility often guides study design

  • The role of politics and ego in research: being mindful of how ambition and politics can influence research relevance and presentation

  • Three purposes of research (as reiterated from prior class): scripted (descriptive), exploratory, and explanatory

Explanatory research and causality: homophetic vs geographic explanations; nomothetic explanations

  • Distinction between explanatory and descriptive (and exploratory) research; explanatory power aims to answer the why behind observed relationships

  • Two kinds of causality discussed:

    • Nomothetic explanations: aims for generalizable patterns and statistical inference across populations

    • Idiographic/Geographic explanations: focus on deep understanding of specific cases or contexts; often qualitative; tries to identify all possible explanations for a particular event

  • The instructor uses two cases to illustrate expository approaches:

    • Gabrielle studies a specific manufacturer link to civil war (ideographic/idiographic approach); aims to explain a particular instance

    • Gabrielle’s roommate studies wars across history (nomothetic approach); looks for underlying generalizable factors across multiple cases

  • Geographic (idiographic) factors: micro-level attributes such as political orientation, age, region, religion, parental attitudes, personal experiences

  • Nomothetic factors: major predictors that apply across cases; emphasis on patterns that can be generalized

  • Normative vs statistical explanations: nomothetic explanations rely on statistical tests; idiographic explanations rely on qualitative observations and richer case detail

  • Correlation vs causality: correlation indicates a relationship but does not prove causation; must consider potential confounding variables or reverse causality

  • Spurious correlation: two variables related by coincidence or due to a hidden third variable

  • Post hoc reasoning: post hoc ergo propter hoc; the idea that because one event followed another, the first caused the second

  • Time ordering: establishing that the cause occurs before the effect is necessary to argue causality

  • The role of statistics in establishing causality: often require tests to demonstrate relationships and rule out alternative explanations

  • Early distinction between deep case studies (idiographic) and broader datasets (nomothetic) and the value of replication across studies for robustness

  • Missing variables in studies are common; subsequent research often adds variables (e.g., parental wealth) to explain outcomes; this highlights the need to consider omitted variable bias

  • Conceptual bridge: ways of knowing (epistemology) and how research approaches shape what we can claim to know

Ways of knowing, fallacies, and critical thinking in research

  • Humans rely on probabilistic reasoning and cause-and-effect reasoning; this is reinforced through everyday experiences and education

  • Fallacies and biases to watch for:

    • Authority: accepting a claim because it comes from an authority; can be flawed if authority is mistaken or biased

    • Personal experience: overgeneralization from a single or small set of experiences

    • Heuristics: mental shortcuts that can lead to systematic errors if not checked against data

  • The Mars “face on Mars” example: initial interpretation of a natural feature as a face; subsequent data (more imagery) debunks the illusion

  • The Uber example (careful: discussed in class context with a caveat): initial data implying a causal link between Uber availability and fewer events; later studies show the relationship may be explained by other factors

  • The value of the scientific approach: emphasizes systematic data collection, reproducibility, peer review, and skepticism toward simple cause-effect narratives

  • The plan for next week: unpack scientific approach further, including research ethics, true vs false claims, and the broader implications for knowledge and policy

Group activity and closing directions

  • Instruction to find a group of four students for an activity

  • The instructor emphasizes preparing for upcoming discussions and quizzes by applying the concepts discussed

Key terms and concepts to review

  • Instrumental value vs symbolic value

  • Data provenance, representativeness, and policy language

  • Peer review process and its limitations

  • Descriptive ( scripted ) vs exploratory vs explanatory research

  • Nomothetic vs idiographic (geographic) explanations

  • Correlation vs causation; spurious correlations; post hoc reasoning; time ordering

  • Ways of knowing: authority, personal experience, heuristics, scientific inquiry

  • Ethical considerations in research and the role of research in policy and society

Notable numbers to memorize (for quick recall)

  • 85 ext{ ext{%}} of teachers and students age 14extto2214 ext{ to }22 use AI in some capacity

  • 66 ext{ ext{%}} in 2024

  • Among students, 89 ext{ ext{%}} use AI for school work; 77 ext{ ext{%}} previous year

  • US Department of Education data: 31 ext{ ext{%}} of public schools have a written AI-use policy (as of 2024)

  • 18 ext{ ext{%}} of schools have a specified policy or related metric (as cited)

  • Time references: a half hour spent with a rep; research review timelines often range 3extto6extmonths3 ext{ to } 6 ext{ months} for peer review cycles

  • Mention of 2025 and 2024 data points: 20252025 and 20242024 as calendar years for the reports discussed

Quick recap of the big ideas

  • Research aims to provide reliable answers with some certainty, using a mix of descriptive, exploratory, and explanatory approaches

  • Data can be instrumental (observable, practical impact) or symbolic (interpretive, attitudinal/policy framing), and discerning which is at play requires careful consideration of data sources and context

  • Data provenance, representativeness, and peer review matter for trust and policy relevance

  • Causality requires careful reasoning beyond correlation, including time ordering and ruling out confounding factors

  • Humans rely on prior knowledge and heuristics, which can bias interpretation; the scientific method offers a disciplined path to minimize these biases while acknowledging fallibility

  • Ethics, transparency, and replication are central to credible research; be wary of claims that overstate causal findings without robust evidence

  • Practical next steps: practice data reading, identify data sources, assess whether findings are instrumental or symbolic, and consider how to ask better questions for future research