POLS233-Political Participation

Overview of Public Perceptions and Political Landscape

• Public Officials' Attitudes

  • Saying: "Public Officials Don’t Care About People Like Me"

  • Overall Agreement:

  • Approximately 90% of respondents agree with the statement.

  • Breakdown by years reveals a general trend over the decades from 1960 to 2020.

  • Survey Data:

  • ANES and Pew Research data presented graphical data comparing trends in agreement over the years indicating robust public perception on government indifference.

Consensus on Condition of the American System

• Perceptions on America Being Broken

  • Statements: "America is broken" and "The system in this country is broken" with a 72% consensus.

  • Demographics of Agreement:

  • Republicans or Lean Republicans: 81%

  • Democrats or Lean Democrats: 72%

  • All Americans trend shows 60% - 86% agreement depending on specific demographic engagement.

Main Reasons for Believing America is Broken

• Source: Ipsos Surveys

Republicans / Lean Republicans: Breakdown of Concerns

• Crime / Safety

  • Percentage: 22.2%

  • Example Statement: "When people get murdered for their opinion and people celebrate that murder."

• Polarization / Division

  • Percentage: 18.4%

  • Example Statement: "Too divided, too much hate."

• Leadership / Politicians

  • Percentage: 16.5%

  • Example Statement: "Because Biden allowed millions of illegal immigrants into America."

• Economy / Cost of Living

  • Percentage: 12.0%

  • Example Statement: "Healthcare is expensive, the medicine is expensive, the food is expensive."

• Democracy / Institutions / Norms

  • Percentage: 12.0%

  • Example Statement: "Democrats attempting to make government all powerful."

• Corruption / Elites / Lobbying

  • Percentage: 8.9%

  • Example Statement: "All politicians are corrupt. The justice system is corrupt and doesn't work."

• Immigration / Border

  • Percentage: 4.4%

  • Example Statement: "We have open borders and knowingly allow non-US citizens to vote."

• Foreign Policy / War

  • Percentage: 2.5%

  • Example Statement: "The war over tariffs. The war going on with Russia."

• Healthcare / Insurance

  • Percentage: 1.3%

  • Example Statement: "From health insurance all the way to government is horrible."

• Rights / Speech / Censorship

  • Percentage: 1.3%

  • Example Statement: "People spend too much time on social media."

Democrats / Lean Democrats: Breakdown of Concerns

• Leadership / Politicians

  • Percentage: 37.9%

  • Example Statement: "The Supreme Court and Congress have ceded power to Trump."

• Democracy / Institutions / Norms

  • Percentage: 15.2%

  • Example Statement: "Democracy is lost and the checks and balances our country was founded on no longer exist."

• Polarization / Division

  • Percentage: 12.6%

  • Example Statement: "Too divided with much of the rhetoric that divides us is coming from the top."

• Economy / Cost of Living

  • Percentage: 12.3%

  • Example Statement: "The groceries are too high, no raises at jobs."

• Corruption / Elites / Lobbying

  • Percentage: 6.7%

  • Example Statement: "Money in politics. Bribes, corruption, control of our government by large corporations."

• Crime / Safety

  • Percentage: 5.9%

  • Example Statement: "Too many things are going wrong from school shootings and police officers breaking amendments."

• Rights / Speech / Censorship

  • Percentage: 3.3%

  • Example Statement: "The system is broken. Redaction of free speech and free press."

• Foreign Policy / War

  • Percentage: 2.2%

  • Example Statement: "Our president is mostly concerned with retaliating against people who speak against him."

• Healthcare / Insurance

  • Percentage: 1.5%

  • Example Statement: "The healthcare system caters to insurance and pharmaceutical companies."

• Education / Schools

  • Percentage: 1.5%

  • Example Statement: "Education system, children never get what they need."

• Immigration / Border

  • Percentage: 0.7%

  • Example Statement: "Broken immigration system, broken families."

Cultural and Political Polarization

• Observation: Colleges have exhibited polarization along political lines, where both liberal and conservative institutions have become more entrenched in their respective ideologies.

Political Participation and Voting Behavior

Early Studies Review

• Main Points:

  • Modern democratic theories suggest that voters are often uninformed and lack coherent ideological beliefs.

  • The Guardian or Elitist Theory provides two perspectives on this:

    • Version 1: Elites guard democratic values and norms.

    • Version 2: Elites control decisions while maintaining the illusion of democracy.

Revision of Early Assessments

• Key Figure: V.O. Key who coined the phrase "voters are not fools" and introduced concepts of retrospective voting.

• Concepts: Limited Information Rationality using cues and heuristics.

  • Motivated Reasoning: More knowledgeable individuals display more resistance to changing their opinions.

  • The Paradox of Choice: Excessive options leading to stress and difficulty in decision-making.

  • Distinction between uninformed and misinformed voters.

Confidence and Knowledge Structures

Dunning-Kruger Effect

• Graphical Representation: An inverse relationship between actual knowledge and perceived confidence.

  • As knowledge increases, the confidence gap narrows, peaking before tapering off.

  • Graph: This curve illustrates the correlation between confidence levels (high at low knowledge) and expertise (low at lack of knowledge)

Political and Psychological Insights

Analysis of Political Cognition

• Understanding inconvenient truths is challenging, particularly in politically charged contexts.

• Case Studies:

  • Rash treatment studies showing varied outcomes with skin cream usage reflecting political implications on information processing.

• Crime Statistics:

  • Cities that enacted strict gun laws did not see as anticipated decreases in crime rates.

Partisan Communication and Media Trust

Trust in Mass Media

• Survey results indicating distrust levels in mass media among different party affiliations from 1997 - 2025

  • Democracy under threat as trust declines particularly among Republicans versus Democrats.

Causes of Death and Media Reporting

• Analysis of the disparity between actual causes of death in the US versus media coverage, highlighting the skewed portrayal in political narratives.

  • Example: Suicide, heart disease, and drug overdose stats across several outlets including Fox News and The New York Times,

Economic Assessment Trends in America

Assessment of Current Economic Conditions

• Survey Results: Trends from Republicans and Democrats showing diverging views on economic health.

  • Significant correlation between political affiliation and assessment of economic condition as excellent/good.

Concern Among Americans Regarding Economic Issues

Primary Concerns

• Survey data collected on American concerns regarding the price of food, housing, and consumer goods.

Responses by Age and Affiliation

• Breakdown of concerns based on party lines and provided economic indicators.

Voter Turnout Trends

Overview of Voter Participation Rates

• Historical voter turnout statistics by cycle from 1789-2022, delineating presidential vs midterm participation rates.

• A correlation between demographic characteristics such as income, education, and age with inclinations toward voting.

Mobilization Impact

• Examination of outreach efforts influencing voter turnout and noting the omission of many individuals from contact with campaigns.

Civic and Political Engagement

Planned Participation Trends

• Data highlighting the expected increases in civic engagement activities indicated by up-to-date polling metrics from 2024.

Political Culture in America

Political Hobbyism Critique

• Observations that politically engaged, yet uninvolved populations may hinder practical democratic efforts, exemplifying the struggles between college-educated voters versus working-class volunteers in political spheres.