Week 9 Reading

UNFPA (2019) – Policy Responses to Low Fertility: How Effective Are They?

Executive summary – main findings

Low fertility and policy responses

In the last three decades, fertility rates below replacement level have spread across much of the world. Today about half of the global population lives in countries where the total fertility rate is below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Particularly low fertility levels are found in East Asia, Southern Europe, and parts of Central, Eastern, and South-eastern Europe, where total fertility rates have fallen to between 1.0 and 1.4. For women born in the mid-1970s in these regions, completed family size is around 1.4 to 1.6 children.

Very low fertility rates are not primarily caused by people wanting fewer children. Surveys consistently show that most women and men still desire about two children. Average intended family size is therefore around or slightly above two children. The existence of very low fertility rates indicates a significant gap between fertility intentions and actual family size. This gap is particularly large among highly educated women, who often find it difficult to reconcile career aspirations with family life.

As a result, increasing fertility has become an explicit policy goal in many countries. The number of governments aiming to raise birth rates increased from 19 in 1986 to 55 in 2015. However, pronatalist aims are only one objective of family policy. Governments also design family policies to compensate parents for the economic costs of children, promote parental employment, support early childhood development, and reduce gender inequalities.

A key driver of low fertility is the incompatibility between professional careers and family life. As women’s participation in higher education and the labour market has increased, many individuals struggle to balance paid work with raising children. This often results in delayed parenthood, having only one child, or remaining childless. These trends are closely linked to persistent gender inequalities in the division of household work and childcare. Countries with more traditional gender role norms have tended to experience particularly low fertility levels.

Other more recent factors have also contributed to fertility decline. These include the rise of intensive parenting norms, which increase the time and financial investment required to raise children. Labour market instability, insecure employment, and high housing costs have also made it more difficult for young adults to establish families.

The effects of family policies on fertility

Evaluating the effectiveness of family policies is difficult because fertility trends are influenced by many social, economic, and cultural factors. Individual policies also operate within wider institutional contexts, making it challenging to isolate their direct effects.

In highly developed countries, governments typically spend between 1 percent and 4 percent of GDP on family support policies. There is a relatively strong correlation between higher levels of public spending on families and higher fertility rates.

One of the most important policies for supporting fertility is the provision of widely available, affordable, and high-quality childcare. Childcare services are particularly effective when they begin immediately after parental leave ends and when their operating hours match parents’ working schedules. Countries such as the Nordic states, Belgium, and France provide comprehensive childcare systems and devote a significant share of family spending to these services.

Other family policies have more mixed effects. Parental leave policies are important for bridging the period between childbirth and access to childcare. Their positive effect on fertility tends to be stronger when leave is well paid. Policies that encourage greater gender equality in childcare, such as non-transferable “use-it-or-lose-it” leave quotas for fathers, may also improve their effectiveness.

Financial incentives such as baby bonuses or one-time payments can have a positive impact on fertility, but their effects are usually modest and temporary. Labour markets that allow flexible working hours are generally more compatible with family life than rigid work schedules. In addition, subsidised and accessible assisted reproductive technologies can slightly increase fertility rates.

Large expansions of family policies can produce short-term increases in fertility, sometimes resulting in temporary baby booms. These changes often influence the timing of births rather than increasing the total number of children people have. Policies may encourage earlier parenthood or shorter intervals between births. However, their long-term effects on fertility levels are often limited.

Evidence from countries such as Estonia, Japan, Germany, and the Russian Federation suggests that expanded family policies can help stabilise or slow the decline of cohort fertility over time.

Family policies are most effective when they address the diverse needs of individuals and families. Successful policy packages usually combine measures that support work-family balance with financial assistance for families with limited resources. Countries such as the Nordic states, France, and Belgium have implemented comprehensive family policy systems of this type, while other countries, including Germany and South Korea, have been expanding their policy frameworks in this direction.

Future policy challenges

Future family policies must adapt to changing social and economic conditions. Families are becoming more diverse and may include single parents, unmarried couples, same-sex couples, and blended families. Policies must also address increasing economic inequality, new forms of insecure employment, evolving gender roles, and the rising economic importance of mothers’ employment.

High housing costs, labour market uncertainty, and shifting expectations about parenthood also shape fertility decisions. As a result, family policies must recognise the different preferences individuals have regarding the timing and number of children and the conditions they consider necessary before becoming parents.

Overall, effective family policies should aim to create societies that are supportive of families and children by improving access to childcare, education, healthcare, and economic security while promoting the wellbeing of both parents and children.