Greatest Hits, Odds and Ends, and Thanks!

Quick Bureaucratic Notes

  • The 2nd Midterm Exam is scheduled for this Thursday, June 5th.

  • Students are advised to check their grades online and report any discrepancies or questions.

Asteroid Mining

  • The previous discussion ended with considering the potential positive aspects of asteroids, specifically their vast mineral wealth.

  • It's uncertain if asteroid mining will be profitable, and trillions in profit seems unlikely due to economic and engineering challenges.

  • Progress is being made in launch capacity and the understanding of asteroids.

  • Asteroid mining enterprises may provide new data on the composition and distribution of different asteroid types.

Don't Look Up Movie Analysis

  • A quiz will test understanding of the science in the movie "Don't Look Up".

Question 1

  • The movie posits that the comet headed for Earth contains trillions of dollars worth of precious metals.

    • The idea that mining asteroids and comets for resources like water can extend humanity's reach to Mars and beyond.

  • Carl Sagan's vision of space exploration is mentioned.

  • The quest to explore and satisfy curiosity is a key element in human history.

Historical Perspectives

  • Thinkers like Grove Karl Gilbert and Ralph Baldwin shaped our understanding of impact craters on Earth and the Moon.

Asteroid Impact Dynamics

  • Asteroids hit the ground at high speeds, causing explosive craters.

  • The impactor is mostly obliterated into dust and debris, not buried in the crater.

  • An apology to Mr. Barringer, as the mining operation won't work out.

Historical and Modern Impact Events

  • Falling rocks from space have been known about for centuries and still occur.

  • The Chelyabinsk event is mentioned, but it wasn't the worst in Russia.

Impact Frequency and Scale

  • Studying impacts of various sizes leads to understanding the distribution of objects that hit Earth.

  • The ~10-km sized asteroid that formed the Chicxulub crater caused widespread devastation and devastated the Earth's biosphere.

Threat Detection and Prevention

  • Predicting and preventing catastrophes requires discovering threatening objects early.

  • Charles Messier and Giuseppe Piazzi are mentioned as people of great curiosity.

Asteroid and Comet Detection

  • Typical asteroid and comet detection images are shown.

Question 2

  • In "Don't Look Up", the scientists who discover the comet are not believed by the wider community, including the US Government.

  • Automated, all-sky surveys, driven by the US Government and Department of Defense, have discovered most NEOs greater than 1km in diameter.

  • Good progress is being made on finding smaller NEOs.

Large Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

  • The LSST project, in which UW plays a big role, will further advance asteroid detection.

  • Projections suggest a high likelihood of finding a potentially threatening asteroid within the next 15 years.

Torino Scale

  • Asteroids are assigned a value on the Torino Scale to describe the level of threat they pose.

  • The 2004 discovery image of Apophis is mentioned, which was initially given a Torino scale rating of 4 but is now rated at -3.

Mitigation Strategies

  • Given enough warning, threats can be mitigated via:

    • Mass drivers

    • Gravity tractors

    • Laser ablation

    • Changing the asteroid's orbit via sunlight

  • These slow-push methods are often inadequate, requiring more impulsive measures.

Kinetic Impactors

  • The effectiveness of kinetic impactors has been tested by the DART mission.

  • Plans are in place for a full-scale kinetic impactor, the Hypervelocity Asteroid Mitigation Mission for Emergency Response (HAMMER), capable of stopping ~100m asteroids.

Nuclear Options

  • The device could be rigged with a nuclear weapon.

  • A Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptor System could destroy or disrupt large asteroids quickly.

  • The use of space-based nuclear weaponry or weapons based on asteroids is concerning.

  • Most people are more concerned about the catastrophe of an impactor striking Earth.

Question 3

  • In "Don't Look Up", with only 6 months of notice, the plan turns to using nuclear weapons to destroy the comet.

  • We are better prepared than ever to detect and mitigate potential threats.

  • There are still ways things could slip through, especially long-period comets.

  • The danger recedes daily.

Question 4

  • In "Don't Look Up", the comet is discovered with only 6 months of advance notice.

  • Even if an asteroid doesn't kill you, something else will.

  • Time is limited, no matter what.

Final Thoughts

  • Continue using time wisely, stay curious, and keep studying the universe.

  • Thank you for letting us lead this course!!