Campaigns and Elections
Campaigns and Elections
Politics and Film
Voting (Video)
Voting: A traditional form of political participation considered the most important political act for most Americans.
Suffrage: The right to vote; has expanded throughout American history.
15th Amendment: Granted voting rights to African American men.
Nineteenth Amendment: Women gained the right to vote nationwide in 1920.
Twenty-Sixth Amendment: Expanded voting rights to individuals aged 18 to 21.
Voter Turnout is Low
Voter rights are granted to nearly all citizens aged 18 and older.
Despite this, U.S. voter turnout is relatively low.
Voter Turnout: Percentage of eligible individuals who actually vote.
Turnout since the 1960s in presidential elections has been around 60%.
In non-presidential election years, turnout is significantly lower.
US Voter Turnout
Preliminary Data on U.S. Election Turnout (since 1900):
Turnout rates highlighted for various years:
1900: 73.2%
1920: 66.9%
1940: 60%
1960: 58%
1980: 50%
2000: 51%
2020: Estimated as high turnout.
Sources: U.S. Elections Project, U.S. Census Bureau.
Voting is a Costly Act
Voting incurs costs, primarily in terms of time.
Utility: Refers to the satisfaction derived from various experiences or outcomes.
Individuals tend to prefer greater utility to lesser utility.
Expected Utility: The total satisfaction includes both the utility of outcomes and the probabilities of those outcomes occurring.
The Probability of Being Decisive
Impact of a Vote: An individual's vote can influence the probability of a candidate winning under these conditions:
A) When the election is a tie without the vote, and the vote determines the outcome.
B) When the election has a one-vote loss for a preferred candidate and the vote results in a tie.
Is it Rational to Vote
American elections are seldom determined by a single vote, making the costs of voting appear irrational.
Using the formula:
Cost-Benefit Analysis: P imes B < C
Where:
P: Probability of a decisive vote.
B: Benefits derived from voting.
C: Cost of voting.
Types of Benefits:
A) Future benefits post-election.
B) Present benefits from voting itself.
Civic Duty
Civic Duty: The sense of obligation to participate in governance leads to rationality in voting.
Modified relationship expressed as:
P imes B + D > C
Many individuals derive satisfaction from the act of voting, leading to the question of their intrinsic motivation.
Elections in America: Video
Types of elections highly differentiated:
Midterm Elections: Congressional elections not aligned with presidential elections.
Primary Elections: Select party candidates for general elections.
Closed Primary: Participation restricted to voters registered with a party.
Open Primary: Participation open to all registered voters, including independents.
Caucuses: Party meetings to select candidates.
General Election: Final election determining officeholders.
Presidential Party Nominations
Party selection of presidential nominees occurs through a prolonged process involving state primaries and caucuses.
Delegates are earned for national conventions, which have seen states prioritize earlier primaries.
Conventions also serve to develop party platforms that include philosophies, principles, and positions.
Presidential Elections
Individuals vote for electors in the general election, not directly for candidates.
Electoral College: Electors chosen by the state party of the winning candidate, which selects the president.
Total electors: 538; a majority of 270 votes is required.
Each state has electors equal to its congressional delegation (House members + two senators).
Electing the President: Steps in the Process
Formation of Explorer Committee: Begins fundraising and promotes candidate's name 18-24 months before the election.
Fundraising: Development of strategies to build financial support early in the campaign.
Campaigning: Local engagements, appearances, and advertisements prior to primaries.
Primaries and Caucuses: Candidates focus on early contests; must perform well to gain momentum.
Convention: National conventions announce party nominees for the presidency and vice presidency.
General Election Campaign: Focus on battleground states; candidates employ advertising and continued fundraising.
Debates: Engagements in televised debates prior to elections.
General Election: Voting occurs on Tuesday following the first Monday in November; most states operate a winner-takes-all system for electoral votes.
Electoral College: Electors meet in December; official vote counting occurs in January.
Inauguration: The president is inaugurated on January 20.
Election of 2000
Electoral Outcome: Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College 271-266.
Notable Outcome: 537-vote loss in Florida, triggering a recount mandated by state law.
Bush v. Gore: Supreme Court intervention stopped the recount, enabling George W. Bush's victory.
Third Parties Sometimes Change Major Parties and Elections
Third parties: Represent unvoiced social and economic interests, arise as protest movements against major parties.
Potential influence on major parties by forcing them to address third-party issues.
Example: Ralph Nader secured 3% of the popular vote in 2000, influencing George W. Bush's victory.
Parties and Candidates in 2016
Results Table: Candidate, Party, Vote Total, and Percentage of Votes:
Hillary Clinton (Democratic): 65,853,652 votes (48%)
Donald Trump (Republican): 62,985,134 votes (46%)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4,489,235 votes (3%)
Jill Stein (Green): 1,457,226 votes (1%)
Other candidates: 1,186,153 votes (0.9%)
(Counts are preliminary as of December 1, 2016)
Third Parties: Election Reforms
U.S. election rules heavily favor a two-party system.
Advocates of election reform propose proportional representation (PR) models.
Proportional Representation: Allocates governmental seats based on the percentage of votes received by parties.
State ballot-access laws create significant barriers for third parties, including registration fees and petition requirements.
Election Campaigns: Video
Modern campaigns are intricate, often contingent on whether an incumbent is present in the race.
Successful electoral campaigns require organized structures and significant volunteer support.
Campaign Strategy, Part 1
Two primary types of election campaigns:
Grassroots Campaigns: Operate locally with direct citizen engagement.
Mass Media Campaigns: Heavily utilize advertising, including negative or attack ads.
The rise of digital media impacts campaign outreach and voter engagement strategies.
Campaign Strategy, Part 2
Micro-targeting: Tailoring campaign messages to specific demographics has become increasingly sophisticated.
Campaigns largely focus on mobilization efforts to drive turnout to the polls.
Sources of Campaign Funds
Contribution limits are set as follows:
$2,800 per candidate per election.
$5,000 per federal PAC per calendar year.
$35,500 per national party committee per year.
$10,000 to state and local committees per year.
Political Action Committee (PAC): Groups that raise and allocate funds for election campaigns, representing businesses, unions, or advocacy groups.
Prior to 2002 campaign finance legislation, donations were largely “soft money” (unregulated).
527 Committees (Super PACs): Non-profit independent committees allowed to raise unlimited contributions, not permitted to coordinate directly with candidates.
501c(4) Committees (dark money): Nonprofit organizations that partake in political campaigns while keeping donor identities confidential, as long as campaigning is not their primary function.