Elections (POSC 1010)

ELECTIONS 4 POSC 1010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Contents in Brief

  • Nomination Process

  • General Election (w/focus on presidential)

  • Congressional Elections

  • Campaigning

  • Campaign Finance

  • Bundling

ELECTION BASICS

The Basics

  • Most states require a majority to win (50% + 1).

  • Some states have a plurality system where the candidate who receives the most votes wins, even if it is less than 50%.

    • Example: Ahnahld in Kulifornya won with 48.6%.

  • It is the responsibility of individual states to determine their own election laws.

Steps in the Election Process

  1. Nomination

    • Each party selects its nominee for office.

  2. General Election

    • Party nominees compete to win the office.

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

Evolution of the Primary System

  • Early Nomination:

    • Candidates for office were nominated by legislative caucus, where legislators of each party would meet to decide on candidates.

    • Candidates would then be put to popular vote.

  • 1824:

    • Andrew Jackson failed to win the nomination of the Congressional Caucus, leading to the formation of the party convention system for nomination.

Convention Process

  • Beginning of Conventions:

    • Precinct meetings allowed voters to become delegates to the county convention.

    • County conventions elected delegates to the state convention and nominated candidates for local office.

  • State Conventions:

    • Nominated candidates for statewide offices, such as governor, and delegates to the national convention.

  • National Convention:

    • Presidential candidates were nominated by delegates at the convention rather than by primary elections.

  • Democratic Reform:

    • The convention process was intended to democratize the nomination process, enabling broader voter participation and reducing elite control.

Problems with Convention Process

  • Manipulation:

    • The process was susceptible to manipulation by party bosses who were influenced by special interests.

  • Voter Discontent:

    • Nominees were often not popular among the electorate, especially in environments with one-party dominance, where general elections offered no real choice.

  • Leading to Primary Elections:

    • The issues led to the adoption of primary elections, initiated in Wisconsin in 1903.

    • Some states allow candidates to be nominated via either primary elections or caucused conventions.

Modern Primary System

  • Presidential Primaries:

    • Primary elections (or caucuses) are held on predetermined dates set by the political parties.

    • Presidential hopefuls must file to appear on each state ballot; they are not required to file in every state.

Delegate Voting and Selection

  • Determining Delegate Votes:

    • Can occur through primary elections or caucuses.

    • Democratic Party includes super delegates, who can only vote in contested nominations after 2016.

Types of Primaries

  • Primary Election:

    • Closed Primary: Voters may only vote in their registered party's primary.

    • Open Primary: Voters can choose to participate in either party's primary, but only in one per election.

  • States have the authority to decide if their primaries are open or closed.

Delegate Assignment in Conventions

  • The number of delegates from each state is based on its population and roughly proportional to electoral votes.

  • Delegates are allocated according to the winner in each congressional district.

  • The Republican National Committee allows winner-take-all systems in states that elect to use this method.

  • National Convention:

    • Delegates declare their selected candidate during the roll call.

    • The candidate with the majority of delegates is declared the nominee.

    • If there is no clear winner, voting continues until one candidate achieves a majority, although no national convention has gone beyond the first ballot since the DNC in 1952.

ELECTING A PRESIDENT: GENERAL ELECTION

Overview

  • It's critical to note that the popular vote does not elect the president in the United States.

The Electoral College

  • Definition:

    • The Electoral College is the body that formally elects the president and vice president.

    • The number of electors from each state equals the total number of its congressional representatives: House districts plus two senators.

  • Example:

    • South Carolina has 7 congressional districts, resulting in 9 electors (7 districts + 2 senators).

  • Census Impact:

    • The number of congressional districts and thus electors is re-evaluated and adjusted following each census, which occurs every 10 years.

  • Elector Behavior:

    • In some states, electors are not legally bound to vote for the candidate who won the popular vote in their state.

Distribution of Electors

  • All states except Maine and Nebraska utilize a winner-take-all system.

    • Maine and Nebraska use a proportional representation system where electors are assigned based on election outcomes in congressional districts.

  • The states decide how they apportion their electoral votes.

Electoral Vote Process

  • Following Election Day, electors convene in their state capitals to cast their votes.

  • The U.S. House of Representatives officially tallies the electoral votes.

  • Majority Requirement:

    • A candidate must achieve a majority of electoral votes (currently 270 out of 538) to win.

  • House Contingency:

    • If no candidate receives a majority, the House of Representatives selects the president from the top three electoral vote-getters, with each state delegation casting one vote.

  • This contingency scenario has only occurred twice: in the elections of 1800 and 1824.

Objections to the Electoral College

  • Concerns:

    • A candidate may win the presidency without winning the popular vote—a scenario that has occurred multiple times, including in 2000 and 2016.

    • Critics argue the Electoral College is outdated and that its original purpose (to avert “mob rule” leading to a despot) has never been realized.

    • There are fears regarding 'rogue' electors, highlighted by rumors prior to the Electoral College votes in 2000 and attempted manipulation in 2016.

  • Suggested Reforms:

    • Transition to a simple popular vote (requiring a constitutional amendment) which may cause less populous states and rural areas to be underserved.

    • Eliminate winner-take-all arrangements in favor of proportional representation to avoid needing a constitutional amendment.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Congressional (House) Districts

  • States are divided into districts based on population, with reapportionment occurring following each census.

  • Districts are typically drawn by state legislatures, potentially benefiting the majority party and impacting state House and Senate districting.

House and Senate Elections

  • House elections occur every two years, with all seats up for election.

  • Senate elections are staggered, with one-third of seats contested every two years.

  • Senators are elected at-large within their states, meaning there are no specific congressional districts for Senate representation.

Gerrymandering

  • Definition:

    • Gerrymandering involves drawing congressional districts with bizarre shapes for political advantage, often benefiting specific political parties or individuals.

    • This practice is subject to federal court review and can be overturned if not meeting constitutional standards of being compact, contiguous, and respectful of existing political boundaries.

  • Benign Gerrymandering:

    • Even what may seem like benign gerrymandering can be subject to legal challenges.

CAMPAIGNING

Strategies for Campaigning

  • Name Recognition:

    • Achieving name recognition is crucial, leading to campaign visibility through methods like campaign signs.

  • Campaign Levels:

    • Campaign efforts work on two levels:

    • Grassroots: Local, personal interactions.

    • En masse: Broader media approaches (TV, mass mailers).

  • Campaign goals can vary; sometimes, the key aim is to raise awareness rather than to win.

Running a Grassroots Campaign

  • Polling:

    • Conduct internal polls for voter identification and issue-oriented surveys to help identify likely supporters.

  • Phone Banks:

    • Utilize phone banks for outreach, whether asking for votes, donations, or conducting Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts.

  • Personal Contact:

    • Engage in door-to-door strategies, literature drops, yard signs, town hall meetings, and fundraising events.

Broader Campaign Strategies

  • Direct Mail:

    • Flyers sent to voters or likely supporters and fundraising letters.

  • Advertising:

    • Utilize local newspaper ads, radio, selective TV spots, and the internet including websites, social media, and email lists for outreach.

  • News Coverage:

    • Incumbents have an advantage through greater news coverage.

    • Historical statistics indicate an 82% incumbency rate for Senate candidates and over 90% for House candidates.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE

Types of Campaign Money

  • Hard Money:

    • Funds used strictly to endorse a candidate, subject to contribution limits set by law.

    • Personal contribution limits are currently $3,500 per candidate per election, increased by the McCain-Feingold Bill from $1,000 in 2002 and indexed to inflation.

    • Personal contributions from candidates to their own campaigns are unrestricted following the Buckley v. Valeo decision.

  • Soft Money:

    • Funds spent on issue advocacy ads that do not explicitly endorse a candidate.

  • Political Action Committees (PACs):

    • Created through the Campaign Reform Bill of 1971, PACs are private entities that gather funds to contribute to campaigns, allowing for larger contributions than individual donors and also providing soft money for issue ads.

    • Some candidates refuse PAC contributions due to principles.

Public Funding

  • Government Funding:

    • Available to major party candidates or those whose parties received at least 5% of the popular vote in the previous election.

    • Provided as matching funds once candidates meet fundraising thresholds, limiting total fundraising.

Enforcement of Campaign Finance

  • Federal Election Commission (FEC):

    • An independent agency with a six-member board responsible for overseeing campaign financing, ensuring compliance through reports, and pursuing inconsistencies.

  • State election commissions manage campaign financing for state and local elections.

BUNDLING

Overview of Bundling

  • Definition:

    • In the political context, bundling refers to a candidate representing a 'bundle' of policy positions on various issues such as immigration, abortion, taxes, and healthcare.

  • Voter Preferences:

    • Example scenario: In the 2016 presidential election, if 100 voters supported Trump, they may not have voted for him for the same reasons, indicating varied interests among voters.

  • A hypothetical breakdown:

    • Immigration: 30 agreed; 21 disagreed

    • Abortion: 45 agreed; 6 disagreed

    • Taxes: 40 agreed; 11 disagreed

    • Social Security: 21 agreed; 30 disagreed

    • Military Spending: 39 agreed; 12 disagreed

    • Healthcare: 42 agreed; 9 disagreed

    • Note: The above numbers are stylized for illustrative purposes.

  • Despite varied support across issues, a candidate may interpret a general victory as a mandate for all their positions.

CONCLUSION

Evolution of Elections

  • The evolution of elections reflects significant changes since the Founding, including moving from nominations by legislative caucus to conventions, and finally to primary systems.

    • Presidential elections are conducted through the Electoral College framework.

  • Congressional Elections:

    • House districts are structured based on population by state legislatures post-census.

    • Senators were originally appointed by state legislatures; however, direct election has been mandated since the ratification of the 17th Amendment in 1913.

  • Campaign Funding:

    • Numerous regulations have emerged, shaping the landscape of financing campaigns and influencing strategies, highlighting the shift towards a modern, technology-augmented campaigning approach.