Climate-Driven Habitat Loss for Bluetongue Lizards

Climate Change and Bluetongue Lizards

  • Aim: To model climate-driven habitat loss for bluetongue lizards (Tiliqua and Cyclodomorphus spp.) in Australia and New Guinea by 2060 and 2100 under various climate scenarios.

Key Findings

  • Most bluetongue lizard species (11 out of 13) are projected to lose substantial habitat by 2100, with 6 species projected to lose more than 50% of suitable climatic areas.

  • Species such as Tiliqua adelaidensis, T. multifasciata, and Cyclodomorphus celatus face extreme habitat reduction (83.3% to 100%).

  • Overall, up to 638,101 km² could become unsuitable for at least three bluetongue species, particularly in arid areas of Australia.

  • Protected Areas (PAs): These areas will not effectively shelter at least 10 species, with significant habitat loss projected within PAs (54.3% to 100% for some).

Methods Used

  • Ecological Niche Models (ENM) were applied under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5).

  • Dispersal limitations were included in projections to better estimate future distributions.

Conservation Implications

  • Current PAs may be inadequate to ensure the survival of bluetongue lizards under climate change.

  • Integration of climate projections into conservation strategies and enhanced measures against illegal trade is essential.

Urgency of Action

  • Immediate action is necessary as trends may start materializing by 2060, emphasizing the need for new conservation areas.