Treatment of climate change in extinction risk assessmentsand recovery plans for threatened species

Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Sarah Endicott, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Jessica Guezen, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
Correspondence: Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3. Email: ilona.naujokaitis-lewis@canada.ca

Threat of Climate Change: Poses an increasing risk to biodiversity, particularly for threatened species.
Interaction with Pre-Existing Threats: Climate change interacts with threats like habitat loss, increasing extinction risk.
Assessment of Species: 44.1% of species' assessments note climate change as a threat, while 43.5% omit it entirely.
Trends in Assessment: More recent assessments are more likely to identify species as climate-threatened, influenced by standardized processes.
Recovery Plans: Less than half of recovery plans for climate-threatened species include specific actions to minimize climate impacts.
Need for Consistency: Importance of standardized assessments and consideration of synergies between climate change and existing threats.
Recommendations: Propose ways to improve integration of climate change in recovery strategies for endangered species.

biodiversity, climate change, climate change adaptation, conservation, endangered species, extinction risk assessment, recovery planning, species extinction, threatened species, threats

Climate Change as a Major Threat: Recognized as a primary threat to global biodiversity.
- Significant Evidence: Species are responding to climate change at all taxa levels.
- Responses Varied: Some can adapt via range shifts, but others face high extinction risk.
Importance of Identifying Threats: Identifying climate change vulnerabilities is essential for effective conservation strategies.
Current Threat Rankings: Recent reviews indicate habitat modification, overexploitation, and pollution are ranked higher than climate change.
Underestimation Issues: Climate change vulnerability seems underestimated in formal assessments, creating discrepancies in conservation strategies.
Knowledge Gaps: Delay in integrating climate change insights into risk assessment processes can exacerbate extinction risks.

Species Selection: Included 510 species listed under Schedule 1 of the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA) as of February 22, 2018.
Evaluation Categories: Focused on species statuses (Endangered, Threatened, Special Concern) and designated units.

Data Extraction: Included taxonomic identity, publication year, threat identification (climate change or not), standardized tool usage, and SARA status.
Taxonomic Assessment: Groups included plants, mammals, herpetofauna, etc.
Threat Identification: Emphasized standardized threat assessment methodology.

Recovery Actions Recorded: Collected information on recommended actions, specifically those addressing climate change.
Action Types: Categorized broadly as outreach/stewardship, research/monitoring, habitat management, and population management.

Regression Analysis: Used generalized linear models to evaluate the probability of climate change being identified as a threat and the specification of climate-targeted recovery actions.

Climate Change Threat Identification Rates:
- 44.1% acknowledge climate change as a threat.
- 12.4% mention without identification as a threat.
- 43.5% do not mention climate change.
Influences on Assessment: More recent published reports and standardized threat processes positively influenced identification of climate change as a threat
Recovery Plans Analysis: Of species with climate change identified as a threat, only 46% had recovery plans specifying actions aimed directly at climate change impacts. Indirect actions dominated recommendations.

Critical Inclusion of Climate Change: Climate change's pervasive impact emphasizes the necessity for integration into extinction risk assessments.
Need for Standardization: Suggests standardized methods can ensure accurate species threat classifications, which enhances transparency and consistency in assessments.

Acknowledged contributions from various individuals and institutions regarding data access and feedback.

Outlined contributions by each author in data extraction, synthesis, writing, and supervision of the study.

All data and code to run analyses available from OSF repository DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/DBSGZ.

A comprehensive list of references, citing empirical studies, frameworks, and findings pertinent to climate change impact assessments and conservation strategies.