National Security Strategy and Theory of Victory Notes

The speaker is a former student of Texas A & M, having left in $2007$ . After a period away, including a year in Carville and living in the taxi industry, the speaker recently moved to Dallas.
To integrate into the community without explicitly stating they are an "Aggie," the speaker uses a "secret bat signal": mentions of "The Dixie Chicken."
The Dixie Chicken: A quintessential bar and institution in Northgate. It has been there since approximately the $1940s$ . It is described as "run down" and "beat up," noted for an environment where one might avoid touching surfaces.
This personal anecdote serves as a senior-level tactic for meeting neighbors in Texas before transitioning into the day's topic: national security theory.

Definition of Theory: An idea that offers both a prediction and an explanation.
Theory of Victory: A specific framework that predicts whether the United States will win or lose a war. It also explains the specific mechanics—the "how" and "why"—of a potential loss in advance.
The Central Question (Dr. Trace): "How does this end?" This question must be applied to any strategic goal, such as imposing freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Planners must consider the ultimate state of strategic end goals (e.g., peace, freedom) rather than just immediate military actions.

The Requirement for Success: Identification and linking of specific actions across the tactical, operational, and strategic levels.
The Tactical Level: Example given of an $18$ -year-old soldier in the streets of Baghdad handing out soccer balls. This individual must understand exactly how that small action contributes to the strategic goal of a "free and prosperous Iraq."
The Operational Level: The maneuvers and campaigns that connect individual battles to the larger goals.
The Strategic Level: The overarching political objective (e.g., containing communism, a sovereign South Vietnam).
Chain of Command: Every individual from the President to the $18$ -year-old on patrol must understand their specific place in the equation of victory.
Linkage Failures (Richard Betts): If there is a break in the link between these levels, victory will not be achieved. - In Vietnam, the U.S. won most battles at the operational level, but failed to achieve its strategy. - A specific dialogue is cited: An American O-6 told a North Vietnamese O-6, "We won all our battles," to which the North Vietnamese officer replied that such victories were irrelevant because they failed to break the North's strategy (insurgency and conventional warfare).

Iraq War (General Petraeus): The U.S. engaged without fully considering the endgame. The assumption was that the population, hating Saddam Hussein, would welcome U.S. forces as a "drooling crowd" and peace would naturally follow. Petraeus asked the question, "Tell me how this ends," leading to the development of surge doctrine.
Vietnam War (General Westmoreland): In his book A Soldier Reports, Westmoreland claimed he did his job within "bad restrictions" (no ground invasion of the North, no entry into Laos/Cambodia). - Westmoreland estimated that to win under those conditions, it would take a minimum of $5$ to $10$ years and $1 \times 10^6$ (one million) soldiers. - The critique presented is that Westmoreland did not explicitly relay these requirements to the President at the time to force a decision on whether the war was worth the cost.
Metrics of Success (Eli Cohen): Success cannot be "pie in the sky." It requires specific metrics, easily understood factors, and a clear list of reasons why success is achievable.

JP 5-0 (Joint Planning): Originally called "Joint Operation Planning Process (JOPP)," now a seven-step methodology. - Note: JP 5-0 replaced Joint Doctrine Note $2-19$ on strategy. It currently contains only $6$ pages dedicated to strategy, emphasizing an institutional focus on the operational level.
Strategic Hierarchy: - Grand Strategy/National Security Strategy (NSS): The big idea of how the U.S. views the world and its interests. - National Defense Strategy (NDS): Produced by the Secretary of Defense/War. It must be consistent with the NSS and covers department-wide goals, including homeland security. - National Military Strategy (NMS): Produced by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Focuses on the "M" (Military) instrument of power to achieve political objectives. - COCOM Plans: Regional applications of the overarching guidance. - Operation Orders (OPORDs): The five-paragraph execution document emerging from the joint planning process.

The speaker describes a shift from Liberalism (Bush $43$ and Obama administrations) to Realism (accelerated in the 2025 document).
Core Tenets of the 2025 NSS: - Realism: Focus on power, military strength, and pursuit of national interests. - America First/Unilateralism: External and domestic issues are intertwined (e.g., industrial base, border security). - Non-Intervention: A move away from regime change and nation-building. - Democratic Peace Theory Rejected: The idea that spreading democracy ensures peace is abandoned in favor of respecting different national traditions and histories.
Geographic Priorities (Ranked): 1. America (The Western Hemisphere). 2. Asia. 3. Europe. 4. The Middle East. 5. Africa.
The Monroe Doctrine and Trump Corollary: Reasserting control over the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing