Comprehensive Notes on EURUSD Price Action and ICT Market Structure (Tuesday Outlook)

Here is the requested trading strategy breakdown based on information provided in the notes:

Core Strategy Details

  • Strategy Name: Intraday FVG Continuation

  • Trading Style: Intraday / Scalping

  • Primary Timeframes: Daily, 5-minute, 1-minute (for entries)

  • Currency Pairs: Primarily EURUSD, but principles applicable to other pairs with correlated assets (e.g., DXY)

Mental Checklist Criteria

  • Session Requirements: Focus on NY session, but London session price action provides context.

  • Technical Indicators: Not explicitly reliant on classic indicators, but uses PD arrays, FVGs, breakers, and order blocks as key price action signals.

  • Market Structure:

    • Bearish daily close in London suggests continuation.

    • Price retraces into sell-side liquidity before moving lower.

  • Pattern Requirements:

    • No-wick FVG combined with a breaker pattern.

    • Market Maker Buy Model (Original Consolidation, Distribution, Re-accumulation, Redistribution, Smart Money Reversal).

    • Turtle Soup formation.

  • Risk Management:

    • Monitor equilibrium level (50% of the daily range) for drawdown.

    • Stop-loss placement not explicitly defined but implied to be around breaker zones or order blocks.

  • Confluence Factors:

    • SMT alignment between EURUSD and USD index (DXY).

    • Higher timeframe (e.g., 15-minute) bullish order block acting as support.

  • Entry Conditions:

    • Pullback into a bullish breaker or no-wick FVG after displacement.

    • Observation of the "power of three" pattern on the 1-minute timeframe.

  • Position Sizing Rules: Not explicitly defined, but examples suggest targeting around 20 pips, implying a scalping approach.

Implementation Questions

  • What makes a perfect setup?

    • Daily FVG not yet traded into.

    • Bearish daily close in London.

    • Formation of a sell-side imbalance on the 5-minute chart.

    • Price pulls back into a breaker/no-wick FVG.

    • SMT alignment with DXY.

  • What are the deal-breakers?

    • A prior daily up-close sequence inside the bearish delivery, suggesting potential for reversal instead of continuation.

    • Rushing to buy without a clear change in the state of delivery.

  • How do you measure confluence?

    • By aligning lower-timeframe setups (EUR) with higher-timeframe signals (USD index).

    • Confirming a bullish order block on a higher timeframe (e.g., 15-minute) that acts as support.

  • Position sizing approach?

    • The transcript indicates targeting specific pip movements (e.g., 20 pips), suggesting a fixed approach based on desired profit targets and risk tolerance.

Intraday FVG Continuation Strategy Checklist

  1. Pre-Market Analysis:

    • Check the daily chart for unfilled Fair Value Gaps (FVGs).

    • Note London session's daily close to anticipate potential continuations (bearish close suggests selling).

  2. Session Timing:

    • Focus primarily on the NY session.

    • Use London session's price action to provide context for directional bias.

  3. Market Structure Assessment:

    • Identify potential sell-side liquidity pools that price may retrace into.

    • Look for a bearish close in the London session to suggest continuation patterns.

  4. Pattern Identification:

    • Look for a "no-wick" FVG combined with a breaker pattern.

    • Be aware of Market Maker Buy Model possibilities (accumulation, distribution, re-accumulation, redistribution).

    • Watch for Turtle Soup formations.

  5. Confluence Measurement:

    • Ensure Smart Money Technique (SMT) alignment between EURUSD and USD index (DXY).

    • Check for supporting bullish order blocks on higher timeframes (e.g., 15-minute).

  6. Entry Conditions:

    • Wait for a pullback into a bullish breaker or "no-wick" FVG post displacement.

    • Observe "power of three" pattern on 1-minute timeframe for precise entries.

  7. Risk Management Protocol:

    • Monitor equilibrium level (50% of the daily range) for potential drawdown assessment.

    • Place stop-loss orders around breaker zones or order blocks (precise placement not strictly defined).

  8. Deal-Breakers Checklist:

    • Avoid setups with prior daily up-close sequences inside bearish delivery, indicating potential reversals.

    • Do not rush into buying positions without clear evidence of a change in the state of delivery.

  9. Position Sizing:

    • Implement a fixed approach (e.g., targeting 20 pips) based on profit targets and risk tolerance.

  10. Perfect Setup Criteria:

    • Ensure daily FVG has not been traded into yet.

    • Confirm a bearish daily close in London.

    • Look for the formation of a sell-side imbalance on the 5-minute chart.

    • Verify price pulls back into a breaker/no-wick FVG.

    • Ensure SMT alignment with DXY.