Notes on the Gulf War: 1990-91

Gulf War Overview: 1990-91

  • The Gulf War was initiated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, which led to a large-scale military intervention by a coalition of forces led by the United States.

Geopolitical Context

  • In 1990, the decline of the Soviet Union influenced Iraq's threat perception:

    • Saddam Hussein felt he could no longer rely on Soviet military and economic support.

    • Iraq lost its deterrent against US aggression, as the US was focused on Eastern Europe events.

    • The occupation of Kuwait was seen as a method to bolster Iraq’s geopolitical power.

Iraqi Ambitions and Regional Dynamics

  • There was a disparity between Iraq's aspirations for regional hegemony and its actual capabilities:

    • Intent to dominate the Persian Gulf region, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

    • Faced difficulties in mustering the necessary resources for achieving hegemony.

Specific Iraqi Grievances Against Kuwait

  • Historical Claims: Iraq referred to Kuwait as its “19th Province,” asserting historical claims to the territory.

  • Oil Production Issues:

    • Iraq and Kuwait were both OPEC members, leading to conflicting interests:

    • Kuwait favored lower oil prices to maintain market access.

    • Iraq needed higher prices post-Iran War to reinvigorate its economy.

  • Oil Prices 1990:

    • OPEC's target price: $18/barrel; actual price dropped to $10, inflicting financial losses on Iraq.

    • Accusations against Kuwait for “stealing” oil through slant drilling.

  • Debt from Iran War:

    • Post-war, Iraq accrued debts exceeding $30 billion, largely from Arab allies.

    • Iraq's call for debt forgiveness was denied by Kuwait, motivating Iraq's aggressive stance to reclaim resources.

Domestic Context in Iraq

  • Post-Iran War, Iraq faced severe economic and political fallout:

    • Public discontent with Saddam's regime grew, fueled by war fatigue and economic mismanagement.

    • Brutal repression of dissent, including uprisings and Kurdish resistance, undermined his legitimacy.

US-Iraq Relations and Miscalculations

  • US Position: In 1990, the U.S. maintained a stance of non-interference in Arab disputes:

    • Ambassador Glaspie's statements reflected a laissez-faire attitude towards Iraq's actions against Kuwait.

    • The U.S. anticipated that Iraq wouldn’t pursue aggressive expansion due to its recent war fatigue.

Conduct of the Gulf War

  • Military Mobilization: After the invasion:

    • The US laid out conditions for withdrawal through UN resolutions and imposed economic sanctions.

    • Formed a coalition of 30 countries for military intervention.

  • Operation Desert Shield and Desert Storm:

    • Deployment of US troops under “Desert Shield” in Saudi Arabia, followed by coalition military actions in “Desert Storm.”

    • Major airstrikes began January 16, 1991, leading to ground assault on February 24, 1991.

    • Rapid success: Iraq was expelled from Kuwait within 100 hours.

Strategic Decisions: WMD and Regime Change

  • Saddam's Restraint: Reasons for not utilizing WMDs included:

    • Risk of provoking a nuclear response from the US or Israel.

    • Desire to maintain control over domestic issues without escalating conflict.

  • US Decision Against Regime Change:

    • UN resolutions emphasized liberation of Kuwait without addressing Saddam’s ouster.

    • Concerns over creating instability within Iraq and escalating regional tensions led to a restrained approach.

Aftermath of the War

  • Following the war, internal uprisings against Saddam occurred, but US support was insufficient.

  • Saddam used force to suppress rebellions, maintaining power amid international sanctions and WMD program constraints.

  • The war’s outcome influenced the Middle East peace process and set the stage for future conflicts, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

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