Hutchings

Author: Vincent L. Hutchings
Affiliation: Professor of Political Science and Research Professor at the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies, Ann Arbor, MI.
Contact: vincenth@umich.edu

Political commentators and social scientists speculate on the implications of Barack Obama's election for race relations.
Optimistic Views: Some believe that the election indicates a fundamental transformation in White racial attitudes.
Objectives of the Article:
- Assess whether this transformation translates to support for policies aimed at reducing racial inequality.
- Investigate the role of racial prejudice in shaping policy preferences and its influence on the 2008 presidential vote.
Methodology:
- Comparative analysis of survey data from the 1988 and 2008 elections via the American National Election Studies (ANES).
Findings:
- Minimal evidence of change in racial attitudes; racial divides persist.
- Younger cohorts of Whites are no more liberal than their 1988 counterparts.
- Racial prejudice remains a strong influence on policy preferences and opposition to Obama.

Election Overview: Barack Obama was elected as the 44th President of the United States on November 4, 2008, acquiring 53% of the popular vote and 365 electoral votes against John McCain.
Commentary on Election Impact: Some commentators argue the election signifies that race no longer influences American politics.
- Example: CNN's analyst claimed it was as if race didn't matter.
- Thernstroms argue that racist stereotypes about white voters were debunked.
Social Psychological Studies: Findings suggest a decline in racial prejudice among Whites post-election.
Historical Context: Understanding racial relations requires analyzing survey data before and after Obama's election against a relevant historical context, particularly 1988.

Historical Progress: Although national surveys indicate a reduction in White opposition to Black presidential candidates over the last fifty years, skepticism remains.
Correlational Data: The 2008 presidential vote shows persisting racial divides:
- 95% of Black voters for Obama, only 43% of Whites match this support.
- Racial divide in vote choice exceeded 50 percentage points in 2008, consistent with trends since 1964.

Mixed Background of Obama: Obama's mixed racial heritage may have alleviated some racial biases among voters.
Policy and Coalitions: Obama, unlike traditional Black candidates, emphasizes universal over race-based policies, which may make him more palatable to White voters.
Racial Prejudice's Functional Role: Some scholars argue that racial bias legitimizes social inequalities; thus, White support for Obama does not equate to support for racial equity.

Comparison to Jesse Jackson's Campaign:
- Jesse Jackson in 1984 received only 5% of the White vote, and in 1988, only 11% despite strong Black support.
- Obama, however, established a bi-racial coalition, suggesting a possible shift in racial dynamics, especially with younger voters.

American National Election Studies (ANES):
- Data Scope: Comparisons between 1988 and 2008 regarding political attitudes and policy preferences.
- 2008 Survey Details: Oversample of African Americans and Latinos; introduction of race-specific questions and measures of stereotypes via ACASI for accurate results.

Fair Treatment in Employment:
- 1988 Findings: 93% of Blacks vs. 48% of Whites supported government action against job discrimination.
- 2008 Results: 90% of Blacks support it, while fewer than half of Whites do, indicating unchanged gaps.
Government Assistance for African Americans:
- 1988: 40% of Whites supported government aid; 2008: Declined to 37%, while Black support increased from 68% to 74%.
Support for Racial Preferences:
- 1988: 65% of Blacks supported preferences; 2008: Declined to 54%, with no change in white support.

Among Obama voters, the racial divide diminishes but is not eliminated; significant gaps remain on policy preferences, underscoring lingering racial biases.
The analysis suggests that while support for racial equity policies might rise among certain cohorts, racial divides persist in policy preferences even among those who supported Obama.

White Democrats in 2008: Showed slight increases in support for racial policies compared to 1988 but disparities still remain, ranging from 20-35 percentage points based on the solidity of ideological beliefs.
Young Voters: Contrary to expectations, younger cohorts (under 30) during 2008 did not show more liberal policy attitudes than older generations.

Persistent racial divides reinforce that prejudice significantly affects White support for racial policies; stereotypes shape opinions more than political values.
Findings Summary:
- Racial prejudice influences policy preferences significantly across both liberals and conservatives.
- The perception of racial superiority correlates with White opposition to Obama and support against racial equity proposals.

Symbolism vs. Reality: While Obama's presidency symbolizes progress, systemic racial divisions remain entrenched in policy and public opinion.
Future Implications: Changes in racial attitudes over broad social dimensions will likely unfold under Obama's administration; his approaches will be critical in shaping future racial dynamics in politics.

Extensive citations from studies and literature that support the article's claims regarding race, politics, and public opinion, including significant contributions from political psychologists and sociologists.
References range from historical studies on race relations to contemporary analyses of Obama's electoral impacts on racial attitudes.