Will China Ever Become a Democracy?

The question of China's potential democratization is complex and nuanced.
Many China experts believed since 1989 that China would eventually become democratic.
The Internet was expected to play a key role in disseminating information and connecting people, which to some extent has happened, leading to government restrictions.
Various reform movements, including environmental and political reform movements, have emerged in China.
Early on, there was hope that Xi Jinping, coming from a reform-minded family, would bring about democracy.
Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 after Jiang Zemin, leading many to believe he would catalyze democratic reforms.
However, Xi's actions have largely disappointed those expectations.

Xi Jinping's model is compared to a watered-down version of Maoism, as he has consolidated power since becoming president.
Despite expectations of liberalization, Xi has tightened control over the Chinese government.
He initiated an anti-corruption campaign, which led to the removal of many officials within the party.
Xi's actions are viewed by some as Machiavellian, addressing corruption while consolidating his control.
Industrial and commercial revolutions often lead to a division of classes and corruption, as seen in the Gilded Age in the U.S.
Xi understood China's corruption problem and used it as an opportunity to remove officials and replace them with his own people.
Some argue he went too far, while others believe he genuinely cleaned house.
This has led to a "spoiler system" where high government jobs are given to cronies, ensuring loyalty and control.

Xi has cultivated a congenial father figure image, contrasting with Mao's distant demeanor and Deng's behind-the-scenes approach.
He has embraced a celebrity status, being referred to as "Xi Dada" (Big Daddy Xi) or "Uncle Xi".
Despite initial optimism, Xi has seemingly acted against democratic reforms.
His actions reflect elements of Confucianism, particularly the emphasis on hierarchy.
Since the mid-2000s, there has been an increase in media and civil society control, including censorship.
In 2017, Xi was appointed to a second five-year term as president.
In 2018, the National People's Congress abolished term limits, allowing Xi to serve indefinitely.
The anti-corruption campaign helped pave the way for changing the law on term limits.
The rationale for abolishing term limits was framed around stability and consistent leadership.

Censoring media helps control the narrative and influence public opinion.
Echo chambers reinforce existing beliefs through selective information.
The term "fake news" has been used to dismiss unfavorable information and influence opinions.
Controlling the narrative can impact voting behavior and encourage self-censorship.
It's not just about what you say, but what you don't include, influencing perceptions by omission.
Political cartoons and imagery depict Xi as another emperor, unsettling those hoping for democracy.
China's global interconnectedness makes a return to strict totalitarian rule unlikely.
Xi's government allows for a more open China while maintaining control to avoid pushback.

"Enlightened despotism" involves understanding that keeping people happy is in the ruler's best interest.
Allowing civil liberties while maintaining underlying control is a strategy to avoid resistance.
The concept of "bread and circuses" refers to providing entertainment and basic needs to distract the population from political issues.
Sports, like the NFL, can serve as a modern form of bread and circuses, uniting people and diverting attention.
People use personal pronouns (we/us) when referring to sports teams, creating a sense of unity.
However, this unity is often superficial, as fans pay significant amounts of money to support teams.

The Chinese government and Xi have found a way to balance control and allowing people to live their daily lives.
This model is vexing for Americans who value freedom and liberty.
The possibility of a third term for Donald Trump is mentioned as a related concern.
Leaders like Hitler and Mussolini were democratically elected, highlighting the potential for democratic systems to change.
Jeffrey Washington and other Chinese scholars have identified key challenges facing China:
- Economic slowdown: Future generations will not experience the same economic growth.
- Corruption and credibility: Despite efforts, corruption, illegal businesses, money laundering, extortion, and bribery continue.
- Many Chinese people lack confidence in the government.
- The Chinese government has strong control at the national level but less control at the local level.
- Energy and the environment: China has vast coal reserves and hydropower potential.
- The Three Gorges Dam is a massive hydropower project with significant environmental and social impacts. The lecturer recalls witnessing the dam construction firsthand.