Contemporary Centres of Power
Alternative Centres of Power
After the bipolar structure of world politics ended in the early 1990s, alternative centers of political and economic power emerged, potentially limiting America's dominance.
The European Union (EU) in Europe and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Asia have become significant forces.
Both the EU and ASEAN have developed institutions and conventions promoting regional peace and cooperation while transforming countries in their regions into prosperous economies.
The economic rise of China has greatly impacted world politics.
European Union (EU)
Post-World War II Context:
European leaders considered whether to rebuild Europe on new principles or revert to old rivalries.
The war shattered existing assumptions and structures.
In 1945, European states faced economic ruin and destruction of established foundations.
Integration and the Cold War:
European integration was aided by the Cold War.
The US provided financial aid through the Marshall Plan.
NATO was created as a collective security structure with US backing.
In 1948, the Organisation for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC) was established to distribute Marshall Plan aid and foster trade and economic cooperation among Western European states.
The Council of Europe, established in 1949, further promoted political cooperation.
Evolution of the EU:
Economic integration progressed, leading to the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957.
The creation of the European Parliament added a political dimension.
The collapse of the Soviet bloc accelerated European integration, resulting in the establishment of the European Union (EU) in 1992.
The EU laid foundations for a common foreign and security policy, cooperation on justice and home affairs, and a single currency.
Characteristics of the EU:
The EU has evolved from an economic union to a more political one, acting more like a nation-state.
Although attempts to create a formal Constitution for the EU failed, it possesses its own flag, anthem, founding date, and currency.
The EU has a common foreign and security policy.
The EU has expanded its membership, especially to include countries from the former Soviet bloc.
Some populations are hesitant about granting the EU powers previously held by their national governments and there are reservations about including certain new countries.
Influence and Power:
The EU has economic, political, diplomatic, and military influence.
The European Union’s GDP is projected to be approximately trillion in the year 2024.
The euro poses a potential threat to the dominance of the US dollar.
The EU's share of world trade is larger than the United States, giving it leverage in trade disputes.
The EU's economic power extends influence over neighboring countries, as well as in Asia and Africa.
The Schengen agreement allows for a visa from just one of the EU countries to permit entry in most of the other countries.
The EU functions as a significant bloc in international economic organizations like the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Political and Diplomatic Influence:
France, an EU member, holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
The EU includes several non-permanent members of the UNSC.
The EU influences US policies, such as the US position on Iran’s nuclear program, through diplomacy, economic investments, and negotiations.
Military Power:
The EU's combined armed forces are the second largest globally.
Its total defense spending is second only to the US.
France, an EU member state, possesses approximately nuclear warheads.
The EU is also the world’s second most important source of space and communications technology.
Challenges and Limitations:
As a supranational organization, the EU intervenes in economic, political, and social areas.
Member states retain their own foreign relations and defense policies, which can conflict with each other.
There is significant Euro-skepticism regarding the EU's integrationist agenda.
Margaret Thatcher kept the UK out of the European Market.
Denmark and Sweden have resisted the Maastricht Treaty and the adoption of the euro.
This limits the EU's ability to act cohesively in foreign relations and defense.
Timeline of European Integration:
1951 April: Six west European countries France West Germany Italy Belgium and Netherlands Luxembourg countries signed the Treaty of Paris, establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC).
1957 March 25: The same six countries signed the Treaties of Rome, establishing the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom).
1973 January: Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom joined the EEC.
1979 June: First direct elections to the European Parliament.
1981 January: Greece joined the EEC.
1985 June: The Schengen Agreement abolished border controls among EEC members.
1986 January: Spain and Portugal joined the EEC.
1990 October: Unification of Germany.
1992 February 7: The Treaty of Maastricht was signed, establishing the European Union (EU).
1993 January: The European Economic Community (EEC) was renamed the European Community (EC).
1995 January: Austria, Finland, and Sweden joined the EU.
2002 January: The euro was introduced in 12 EU member states.
2004 May: Ten new members joined the EU: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2007 January: Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU. Slovenia adopted the euro.
2009 December: The Lisbon Treaty came into force.
2012: The EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
2013: Croatia became the 28th member of the EU.
2016: A referendum in Britain resulted in a vote to exit (Brexit) from the EU.
Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Historical Context:
Southeast Asia experienced economic and political consequences of European and Japanese colonialism before and during World War II.
Post-war, the region faced challenges of nation-building, poverty, economic backwardness, and pressure to align with major powers during the Cold War.
Efforts at Asian and Third World unity, like the Bandung Conference and the Non-Aligned Movement, were ineffective in establishing cooperation.
Establishment and Objectives:
ASEAN was established in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration.
Objectives included accelerating economic growth, social progress, and cultural development.
A secondary objective was to promote regional peace and stability based on the rule of law and the principles of the United Nations Charter.
Expansion and Principles:
Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), and Cambodia joined ASEAN, bringing its membership to ten.
Unlike the EU, ASEAN exhibits little desire for supranational structures and institutions.
ASEAN countries follow the ‘ASEAN Way’, characterized by informal, non-confrontational, and cooperative interactions.
Respect for national sovereignty is crucial to ASEAN's functioning.
Evolution and Community Pillars:
Driven by some of the world's fastest-growing economies, ASEAN expanded its objectives beyond economic and social spheres.
In 2003, ASEAN agreed to establish an ASEAN Community based on three pillars:
ASEAN Security Community
ASEAN Economic Community
ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community
ASEAN Security Community:
Based on the principle that territorial disputes should not escalate into armed confrontation.
By 2003, ASEAN had agreements in place committing member states to uphold peace, neutrality, cooperation, non-interference, and respect for national differences and sovereign rights.
The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), established in 1994, coordinates security and foreign policy.
ASEAN Economic Community:
The ASEAN region is a smaller economy compared to the US, the EU, and Japan, but its economy is growing faster.
Objectives include creating a common market and production base within ASEAN states and aiding social and economic development.
Aims to improve the existing ASEAN Dispute Settlement Mechanism.
Focused on creating a Free Trade Area (FTA) for investment, labor, and services.
The US and China have pursued FTAs with ASEAN.
Vision 2020:
Defines an outward-looking role for ASEAN in the international community.
Builds on the existing ASEAN policy to encourage negotiation over conflicts in the region.
ASEAN has mediated the end of the Cambodian conflict and the East Timor crisis, and meets annually to discuss East Asian cooperation.
The current economic strength of ASEAN, especially its economic relevance as a trading and investment partner to growing Asian economies like India and China, makes this an attractive proposition.
India and ASEAN:
During the Cold War, Indian foreign policy did not pay adequate attention to ASEAN.
Since the early 1990s, India’s ‘Look East’ Policy and ‘Act East’ Policy since 2014 have led to greater economic interaction with East Asian nations.
India signed trade agreements with three ASEAN members: Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.
The ASEAN-India FTA came into effect in 2010.
ASEAN's strength lies in its policies of interaction and consultation, providing a political forum for Asian countries and major powers to discuss political and security concerns.
The Rise of the Chinese Economy
Economic Transformation:
China's economic success since 1978 has been linked to its rise as a great power.
China has been the fastest-growing economy since reforms began and is projected to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2040.
Economic integration into the region makes China the driver of East Asian growth, giving it enormous influence.
Early Economic Model:
After the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the economy was based on the Soviet model.
China severed links with the capitalist world and relied on its own resources and Soviet aid.
The model focused on creating a state-owned heavy industries sector from capital accumulated from agriculture.
China substituted imports with domestic goods due to a shortage of foreign exchange.
This model established the foundations of an industrial economy and improved employment, social welfare, education, and healthcare.
The economy grew at a respectable rate of - per cent.
China's industrial production lagged, international trade was minimal, and per capita income was very low.
Policy Changes in the 1970s:
China ended its political and economic isolation with the establishment of relations with the United States in 1972.
Premier Zhou Enlai proposed the ‘four modernizations’ (agriculture, industry, science and technology, and military) in 1973.
By 1978, Deng Xiaoping announced the ‘open door’ policy and economic reforms.
Market Economy Introduction:
China followed its own path in introducing a market economy, avoiding ‘shock therapy’ and opening the economy step by step.
Privatization of agriculture in 1982 was followed by privatization of industry in 1998.
Trade barriers were eliminated only in Special Economic Zones (SEZs).
The state played a central role in setting up a market economy.
Economic Growth and Development:
The new economic policies helped the Chinese economy break from stagnation.
Privatization of agriculture led to a remarkable rise in agricultural production and rural incomes.
High personal savings led to exponential growth in rural industry.
The Chinese economy, including both industry and agriculture, grew at a faster rate.
The creation of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) led to a phenomenal rise in foreign trade.
China has become the most important destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) anywhere in the world.
Large foreign exchange reserves allow China to make big investments in other countries.
Accession to the WTO in 2001 further opened China to the outside world.
Challenges and Issues:
Not everyone in China has benefited from the reforms.
Unemployment has risen.
Female employment and working conditions are poor.
Environmental degradation and corruption have increased.
Economic inequality has risen between rural and urban residents and coastal and inland provinces.
Regional and Global Influence:
China has become an economic power to reckon with.
Integration of China’s economy and inter-dependencies has enabled China to have considerable influence with its trade partners.
Outstanding issues with Japan, the US, ASEAN, and Russia have been tempered by economic considerations.
China hopes to resolve its differences with Taiwan by integrating it closely into its economy.
Contributions to the stability of the ASEAN economies after the 1997 financial crisis have mitigated fears of China’s rise.
Outward-looking investment and aid policies in Latin America and Africa are projecting China as a global player on the side of developing economies.
India – China Relations
Historical Context:
India and China were great powers in Asia before Western imperialism, each exercising political, economic, and cultural influence in distinct regions.
Limited political and cultural interaction between the two countries resulted in mutual unfamiliarity.
Post-Independence Hopes and Challenges:
After India regained independence and China expelled foreign powers, there was hope for cooperation.
The slogan of ‘Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai’ (Indians and Chinese are brothers) was popular, but Chinese aggression on the Indian border marred that hope.
Differences arose from the Chinese takeover of Tibet in 1950 and the final settlement of the Sino-Indian border.
Border Conflict of 1962:
China and India engaged in a border conflict in 1962 over territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region of Ladakh.
India suffered military reverses, leading to long-term implications for India–China relations.
Diplomatic relations were downgraded until 1976.
Improvement in Relations:
Relations began to improve slowly after a change in China’s political leadership in the mid to late 1970s.
China's policy became more pragmatic and less ideological.
Both countries initiated talks to resolve the border issue in 1981.
Post-Cold War Relations:
Significant changes occurred in India–China relations after the end of the Cold War.
Relations now have a strategic as well as an economic dimension.
Both countries view themselves as rising powers in global politics and seek a major role in Asian economy and politics.
Agreements and Cooperation:
Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in December 1988 provided the impetus for improved relations.
Both governments have taken measures to contain conflict and maintain ‘peace and tranquility’ on the border.
Agreements on cultural exchanges and cooperation in science and technology have been signed, and four border posts have been opened for trade.
Economic Ties:
India–China trade has grown significantly, increasing from million in 1992 to more than billion in 2017.
Both countries have agreed to cooperate in areas such as bidding for energy deals abroad.
India and China have adopted similar policies in international economic institutions like the World Trade Organisation.
Challenges and Concerns:
India’s nuclear tests in 1998 were justified on the grounds of a threat from China.
China’s military relations with Bangladesh and Myanmar were viewed as hostile to Indian interests in South Asia.
Talks to resolve the boundary question have continued, and military-to-military cooperation is increasing.
Recent Developments:
Indian and Chinese leaders and officials visit each other’s countries with greater frequency.
Increasing transportation and communication links, common economic interests, and global concerns should help establish a more positive and sound relationship.
Recently, relations have experienced a downslide due to border disputes, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and China’s support to Pakistan in the UN against India’s move to counter terrorism.
Japan
Economic and Technological Power:
Japan is known for high-technology products and famous brands such as Sony, Panasonic, Canon, Suzuki, Honda, and Toyota.
Japan has few natural resources and imports most of its raw materials, yet it progressed rapidly after World War II.
Japan became a member of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1964.
In 2017, it was the third-largest economy in the world and the only Asian member of the G-7.
It is the eleventh-most populous nation in the world.
Post-War Constitution and Security:
Japan is the only nation that suffered the destruction caused by nuclear bombs.
It is the second-largest contributor to the regular budget of the UN, contributing almost per cent of the total.
Japan has a security alliance with the US since 1951.
As per Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.”
Although Japan’s military expenditure is only one per cent of its GDP, it is the seventh largest in the world.
South Korea
Division and Emergence:
The Korean peninsula was divided into South Korea (Republic of Korea) and North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) at the end of World War II along the 38th Parallel.
The Korean War during 1950-53 and dynamics of the Cold War era further intensified rivalries between the two sides.
Both the Koreas became Members of the UN on 17 September 1991.
South Korea emerged as a center of power in Asia.
Economic Development:
Between the 1960s and the 1980s, South Korea rapidly developed into an economic power, termed as “Miracle on the Han River.”
Signalling its all-round development, South Korea became a Member of the OECD in 1996.
In 2017, its economy was the eleventh largest in the world, and its military expenditure was the tenth largest.
Human Development:
According to the Human Development Report 2016, the HDI rank of South Korea is 18.
Major factors responsible for its high human development include “successful land reforms, rural development, extensive human resources development and rapid equitable economic growth.”
Other factors are export orientation, strong redistribution policies, public infrastructure development, effective institutions and governance.
Brands and Agreements:
South Korean brands such as Samsung, LG, and Hyundai have become renowned.
Numerous agreements between India and South Korea signify their growing commercial and cultural ties.