Racial Attitudes and American Politics in the Trump Era

Growing Partisan Divide By Racial Attitudes Under Obama

  • Partisan preferences became more divided by racial attitude during the Obama era.
  • Partisan politics were more divided by immigration attitudes.
  • There was a growing partisan divide between whites and non-whites.
    • Low education, racially conservative whites increasingly identified as Republican.
    • Racially conscious African Americans increasingly identified with Democrats.
    • Latinos and Asian-Americans with cooler feelings towards whites also increasingly identified as Democrat.
  • Partisan preferences were more divided by attitudes about Muslims during Obama's presidency.

Trump Taps Into Growing Racial and Ethnic Backlash against Obama

  • Birtherism tapped into widespread sentiments that people of color are less American.
  • Anti-immigrant sentiment was activated by fears of changing demographics and a declining white majority under Obama.
  • Islamophobic opposition was activated by widespread misperceptions of Obama’s religion, leading to the Muslim Ban.

Republican Support For Trump At the Height of Birtherism in 2011

  • Data from a USA Today/Gallup Poll in April 2011 shows significant Republican support for Trump during the height of the birtherism movement.

Ethnocentric Misinformation Strongly Linked to Support for Trump in Primaries

  • An ANES Pilot study from January 2016 (Republicans + Leaners Only) indicated a strong correlation between believing misinformation about President Obama’s religion and voting intention for Donald Trump in the primaries.

Concerns about Immigration Immediately Fueled Trump's Rise to Top of Republican Party

  • YouGov/Economist surveys showed that concerns about immigration heavily fueled Trump's rise to the top of the Republican Party.

Anti-Muslim Sentiment More Closely Linked to Support for Trump than Romney and McCain

  • CCAP 2008/RAND PEPS 2016 and CCAP 2012/ANES Pilot 2016 data indicate that anti-Muslim sentiment was more closely linked to support for Trump than for Romney and McCain in previous elections.

Racial Resentment More Closely Linked to Support for Trump than Romney and McCain

  • 2008 CCAP/2016 YouGov Surveys and 2012 CCAP/2016 YouGov Surveys reveal that racial resentment was more closely linked to support for Trump than for Romney and McCain.

Racial Attitudes and the 2016 General Election

  • It could be harder to activate racial attitudes in the general election than in the primaries.
  • Fundamental causes of presidential vote, such as partisanship and presidential performance, could overwhelm other considerations.
  • Obama may have put a ceiling on the influence of racial attitudes in general election votes for president.

Racial Attitudes and the 2016 General Election

  • Obama Didn’t Talk Much About Race (Gillion 2016)
  • Clinton Tracks Left of Obama On Racial and Ethnic Issues
    • “As a result, some white voters may have decided I wasn’t on their side”
    • “That’s not ‘identity politics.’ It’s simple Justice”—(Clinton 2017, pg. 415).
  • Identity Issues Dominate Campaign Ads
  • Americans Were Well Aware of Trump’s Racial/Ethnic Controversies
    • 85% Had Heard About Muslim Ban in December 2015
    • Majorities consistently say term “racist” describes Trump in YouGov/Economist surveys
  • Americans see wider divide between candidates on race in 2016…

Perceived Differences between Dem-Rep Presidential Candidates

  • Graph showing perceived differences between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates on a 7-point aid to Blacks scale over time.

Racial Attitudes and General Election Preferences (2012-2016)

  • Data from RAND/ALP/PEPS controlled for Party and Ideology showed that whites' support for the Republican presidential candidate in 2016 was more strongly correlated with racial resentment and white ethnocentrism than in 2012.

Racial and Ethnic Attitudes and General Election Preferences (2012-2016)

  • CCAP Reinterviews, controlled for Party and Ideology show that whites' support for the Republican presidential candidate in 2016 was more strongly correlated with racial resentment and anti-immigration attitudes than in 2012.

Racial Attitudes and Gen Election Vote (2016)

  • Data illustrating Hillary Clinton Vote Intention among Whites (Controls for Party, Ideology, & Demographics) indicates that racial resentment and white ethnocentrism significantly impacted vote choice between Clinton and Trump versus Clinton and Cruz/Rubio.

Perceptions of Economic Deservingness and 2016 Vote

  • “Ultimate Attribution Error” (Pettigrew 1979)
    • When whites struggle, their troubles are generally attributed to situational forces (e.g., outsourcing).
    • When non-whites struggle, their plight is more often attributed to dispositional traits (i.e., poor work ethic).
  • “If every economic issue is framed as a struggle between [the] hard-working white middle class and undeserving minorities, then workers of all shades will be left fighting for scraps while the wealthy withdraw further into their private enclaves.” –Obama Farewell Address

Trump Voters Think African-Americans Are Much Less Deserving Than "Average Americans"

  • Data demonstrating that Trump voters believe African-Americans are much less deserving than