The Turbulent Twenties: A Prediction of Political Upheaval in America

Introduction

Jack A. Goldstone and Peter Turchin predicted political upheaval in America in the 2020s.
Goldstone developed a model based on population changes affecting state, elite, and popular behavior.
Turchin applied Goldstone’s model to U.S. history, forecasting growing instability in the U.S. and Western Europe, even before Trump's election.

The Model: Elite Behavior and Political Instability

The model is based on how elites react to long-term population increases.
Three Cardinal Sins of Elites:
- Increased Inequality: Taking a larger portion of economic gains amid wage stagnation.
- Restricting Mobility: Limiting access to elite status, e.g., top universities, favoring the already successful.
- Resisting Taxation: Avoiding taxes on wealth and profits, leading to underfunded public services and rising government debts.
These actions create conditions for greater inequality and distrust in government.
Urbanization and education concentrate aware and organized groups who can mobilize for change.
Inclusive leaders can manage conflicts, while divisive leaders exacerbate crises.
Tensions arise between elites preserving privileges and reformers seeking an open social order.
Each side portrays the other as a threat, leading to deep polarization and worsening problems.
Similar conditions preceded major historical upheavals like the French Revolution, the U.S. Civil War, and the Russian and Chinese revolutions.

Applying the Model to the U.S.

Indicators tracked from 1800 to the present include:
- Ratio of median workers’ wages to GDP per capita.
- Life expectancy.
- Number of new millionaires and their political influence.
- Party-line voting in Congress.
- Incidence of deadly riots, terrorism, and political assassinations.
Two broad cycles in U.S. history were identified.
First Cycle:
- Post-independence: Compromise among elites and broadly shared prosperity.
- Peaked around 1820, followed by rising polarization and inequality leading up to the Civil War.
- Crisis indicators peaked in the 1860s, remained high until 1920 (Reconstruction, Jim Crow, Gilded Age).
Second Cycle:
- A wave of unity and prosperity began after 1920.
- Progressive Era and New Deal reforms reduced inequality.
- The 1950s: A golden age of worker progress and party cooperation.
- The 1960s: Far-reaching reforms despite racial conflicts.
- The 1970s and 1980s: Things began to turn.
- The 1990s: Rising inequality and political divisions (Newt Gingrich).
- Late 2010s: Inequality rising to Gilded Age levels, median wages falling to historic lows.
The Political Stress Index (PSI) and Well-Being Index are used to measure these trends.
$PSI$ combines declining living standards, increasing elite competition, and a weakening state.
$PSI$ indicates likelihood of political violence.
Well-Being Index indicates equality, elite consensus, and legitimate state.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the death of George Floyd delivered a double crisis.
These events occurred amid extreme political polarization and declining worker's share of the national income.
Entrenched elite opposition to increased spending on public services hampered effective responses.

The Likelihood of Greater Protests and Violence

Inequality and polarization are at levels not seen since the nineteenth century.
Democrats fear the end of democracy if Trump is re-elected.
Republicans fear socialists seizing wealth and destroying the economy if Trump loses.
Both sides believe the other will change democratic rules to prevent future competition.
Elections have become existential battles, with potential losers viewing results as rigged.
Almost any election scenario could trigger mass violence.
Narrow Trump win: Protests against the outcome, potential federal intervention.
Trump loss: Claims of a rigged election, leading to protests in support of honoring election results.
Potential for federal forces clashing with state troopers or Trump supporters.
Even a large Biden victory could be seen as fraudulent due to pre-existing false impressions.
Americans overestimate the Muslim population and the percentage of illegal immigrants.
Mail-in ballots may delay clarity, allowing both sides to claim victory and mobilize supporters, potentially leading to clashes.
Dangerous tinder has accumulated, and any spark could generate an inferno.

The Unraveling of American Exceptionalism

American exceptionalism was founded on cooperation between rich and poor.
Unity across economic classes and regions was a marvel to European observers.
This spirit unraveled in the mid-nineteenth century, leading to the first “Age of Discord.”
It was reforged during the New Deal as a social contract among government, business, and workers.
Since the 1970s, this contract has favored government and business, underfunding public services.
Real median household income has stagnated, while high-paying blue-collar jobs have declined.
Politics has fallen into a pattern characteristic of developing countries, where elites win support by persuading the working class that they are beset by enemies who hate them.
Liberal elites are perceived as neglecting problems like opiate addiction, declining social mobility and real wages, contributing to distrust of government and experts.

Ending the Current Age of Discord

A new social contract is needed to overcome polarization, redistribute economic growth, and improve government funding for public services.
Historical cases show countries teetering on calamity can recover.

Case 1: The United Kingdom in the 1820s

The Duke of Wellington sought to maintain the dominance of traditional landlord elites.
Workers demanded political reforms and objected to the Corn Laws.
The Peterloo Massacre in 1819 led to sharp political polarization.
Despite repression of protests, agitation continued.
The Reform campaign sought voting reforms to reduce the power of landlords and support the industrial working class.
In 1830, the Tories lost control of Parliament, and Lord Grey became prime minister.
The Reform Bill of 1832 expanded the franchise and gave representation to factory cities.
Additional Reform bills followed, allowing Britain to avoid revolutions and emerge as a leading economy.

Case 2: The United States in the 1930s

Democracy was retreating in Europe, and the U.S. economy was in a depression.
Prohibition heightened cultural conflict, and nativist demagogues stirred fear.
In 1932, Franklin Delano Roosevelt replaced Herbert Hoover and undertook sweeping reforms.
Labor organizations were strengthened, and public works programs provided jobs.
The transition to an economy based on mechanization, skilled labor, strong unions, and public education resulted in a strong country.

The Formula for Recovery

Replace leaders trying to preserve the past with leaders willing to undertake reforms.
Carry out reforms within the existing institutional framework without radical revolution.
Implement pragmatic solutions and build broad support for reforms.
Support and strengthen the opportunities and fortunes of ordinary working people, which will require the wealthy to endure some sacrifices.

Conclusion

A clear pathway exists for a strong, united, and inclusive America.
It involves shifting leadership, focusing on compromise, and responding to the world as it is.
Heroic efforts are needed to rebuild the political center, restore fairness in taxation and public spending, and ensure that all sides recover a stake in government.
Only then can America avoid sliding into a crisis that will undermine the Constitution and pit Americans against each other.