Urban Planning and Climate Change
The Challenge of Urban Growth
- Simultaneously solving climate change and building cities for 3 billion people, doubling the urban environment.
- Failure to plan cities correctly jeopardizes climate solutions and impacts social well-being, economic vitality, and community.
- Shaping cities reflects our humanity and values.
The Villain: Sprawl
- Sprawl is not just low-density development but anything that isolates people.
- It segregates people economically and by land use, separating them from nature and hindering interaction.
- The antidote to sprawl is crucial for this massive construction project.
California Case Study: Sprawl vs. Compact Development
- A model for California compared sprawl (shopping malls, subdivisions, office parks) with compact development (walkable neighborhoods, mixed-use).
- Compact development means streetcar suburbs which constitute low rise but integrated mixed use envrionments.
- Results showed significant differences and co-benefits of urban form.
Land Consumption
- Sprawl almost doubles the urban footprint, concerning environmentalists, farmers, and neighborhood groups.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Compact development leads to tremendous savings due to reduced car dependence, as California's largest carbon emission source is cars.
- Cities that don't depend on cars as much obviously create huge savings.
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
- Reducing average VMT by 10,000 miles per household annually has a huge impact on air quality, carbon emissions, and household finances.
- Reducing the average from mid 26,000 per household.
Healthcare
- Prevent pollution by promoting walking and biking through city design, rather than fixing the consequences later.
Household Costs
- The 2008 financial crisis was partly due to selling the wrong kind of housing such as large lot, single family, and distant homes.
- Reducing costs by 10,000 is significant, considering California's median income is 50,000.
- Affordable housing advocates find common cause with environmentalists and politicians.
- Los Angeles is transforming into a transit-oriented environment.
- Since 2008, 400,000,000,000 in bonds were voted for transit versus 0 for new highways.
- Transforming LA into a city of walkers and transit users, not cars.
High-Density Sprawl in China
- China faces high-density sprawl with similar problems of isolation in superblocks.
- Smog results, costing 12% of China's GDP in health impacts.
- Traditional Chinese cities had robust communities with local shops and walkable environments.
- New superblocks have 5,000 units, gated and lacking sidewalks or ground-floor shops which results in a sterile environment.
- People desire local services, even setting up illicit shops in garages.
Chongqing Case Study: Alternatives to Sprawl
- Chongqing, a city of 30,000,000, tested alternatives to sprawl for a 4.5 million person growth area.
- Walking radius around transit stations is the foundation.
- Massive investment in Metro and BRT allows working within walking distance of transit.
- Principles include preserving green space and ecological features.
- The streets in the red area are auto free streets.
- Small blocks (500 families per block) with street perimeter shops create local destinations.
Equitable Street Allocation
- If only a third of people have cars, allocate 70% of street space to pedestrians, bikes, and transit for better city function.
- No matter how many ring roads they build in Beijing they just can't overcome complete gridlock.
- This can be solved by geographic equity in our circulation system.
- Auto-free streets with mixed-use edges and transit in the middle.
Seven Principles for Urban Planning
- Adopted by the highest levels in the Chinese government, these principles are globally universal.
Preserve
- Protect the natural environment, history, and critical agriculture.
Mix
- Create mixed uses with mixed incomes and age groups.
Walk
- Prioritize walkability, as great cities are enjoyable to walk in.
Bike
- Support biking with policies like six meters of bike lane on every street.
Connect
- Establish a street network with multiple routes and street types.
Ride
- Invest more in transit as there is no silver bullet.
Focus
- Base the city hierarchy on transit rather than freeways.
Hope for the Future
- Changes are well accepted in California, the United States, and China.
- Most people understand the value of great cities.
- Analysis enables connecting the dots and forming political coalitions for community development.
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Concerns
- Over-hyped; AVs may increase vehicle miles traveled and congestion.
- Privately owned AVs will enable people to travel greater distances, revitalizing sprawl.
- If 50% of people are not willing to share taxis, there's a 90% increase in VMT even if they share them it would still amount to 30%.
- Walking, biking, and transit are superior for cities compared to private bubbles (AVs).
- The image of AVs running errands without owners is concerning.