Mueller Reading - GVPT 200 - “The Upside of Putin’s Delusions" - 5/3/26

Historical Context of the Long Peace and Recent Interstate Conflicts

• The Post-WWII Long Peace in Europe:     * When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his "special military operation" against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Europe had been substantially free from international war for nearly $80\,\text{years}$.     * This duration represents the longest period that Europe—historically the most warlike of continents—has gone without such a war since at least the era of the Roman Empire.

• Global Spread of Aversion to War:     * In recent decades, the trend of avoiding international war, initially led by Europe, has spread globally.

• Frequency and Definition of Interstate War:     * Over the last $30\,\text{years}$, there have been only three interstate wars besides the current conflict in Ukraine.     * Interstate war is conventionally defined as an armed conflict resulting in at least $1,000$ battle-related deaths per year.     * Identified Interstate Wars (Source-Specific):         1. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Fought during the final years of the $20^{th}$ century.         2. Afghanistan (2001): A brief, $09/11$-induced invasion by the United States to topple a regime, which later transitioned into an extended counterinsurgency/counter-occupation.         3. Iraq (2003): A brief US-led invasion to topple a regime, which similarly devolved into counterinsurgency.

Debates on the Future of International Conflict

• Concerns Over a Reversal of the Decline of War:     * Yuval Noah Harari: Shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, the Israeli writer Harari declared the decline of international war to be the greatest political and moral achievement of modern civilization. However, he expressed concern that a war in Ukraine could signal a return to the "law of the jungle."     * Tanisha Fazal: In a May essay for Foreign Affairs, political scientist Tanisha Fazal expressed concern that Putin’s invasion could lead to an increase in both the incidence and the brutality of war globally.

• The Mueller Hypothesis (John Mueller):     * Mueller argues that Putin's venture is more likely to reinforce and revitalize the global aversion to and disdain for international war.     * The primary objective of the global community is not just ensuring a "win," but making sure the aggressor is significantly worse off than they would have been had they not started the war. This has substantially been achieved through global condemnation and isolation.

Concrete Costs and the Reality of Russian Failure

• Universal Revulsion and Isolation:     * The world's response to the invasion of Ukraine mirrored the nearly universal revulsion following Saddam Hussein's seizure of Kuwait in $1990$.     * Despite concerns that China might find inspiration for an invasion of Taiwan, there is no evidence of a "groundswell of prospective imitators."

• Economic and Human Toll on Russia:     * Potential aggressors are deterred by Russia's high casualties, economic losses, and international isolation.     * The Russian economy is characterized as "kleptocratic" and has been struggling for the better part of a decade.     * Future outlook: Even if the war is settled, Russia will likely alienate buyers and investors for the duration of Putin’s rule and potentially longer.

• The Difficulty of Occupation and Administration:     * Russian forces have struggled to govern occupied areas. The author notes that Russians appear poorly equipped for civil administration and occupation.     * Brutality by Russian forces has increased the hostility of the local populations toward foreign occupiers.     * Strategic Constraints: Without a durable ceasefire, Russia must defend its acquisitions for years or decades.     * Ukrainian Resistance: Areas targeted for conquest, such as the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, present targets for a better-armed and hostile Ukrainian military. For context, Ukrainian forces harassed smaller Donbas enclaves for seven years prior; the new, larger acquisitions will be even harder to maintain.     * Partisan Warfare: There is a high prospect of years of partisan urban warfare.         * Specific Example: In the city of Kherson, a Ukrainian man appointed by Russian forces as the head of the department of youth and sports was recently killed in a car bombing.

Putin’s Delusions and Comparative Hubris

• Putin's Rationalizations:     * Claimed Russia could not feel safe while facing a permanent threat from Ukraine.     * Analogized today's Ukraine to Nazi Germany before World War II.     * Claimed a showdown was inevitable and falsely asserted that Ukraine was seeking nuclear weapons.

• Historical Comparisons of Executive Delusions:     * George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton: Both insisted that a coup in Haiti was an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the national security and economy of the United States.     * Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson: Believed that failure to intervene in the civil wars in Korea and Vietnam would lead to a third World War.

• Strategic Backfire of the Invasion:     * NATO Expansion: Putin claimed the war was intended to push NATO away and create disunity. Instead, it inspired long-neutral neighbors Sweden and Finland to seek admission.     * NATO Unity: The alliance has become more united, better armed, and effectively closer to Russia’s borders.

Shifts in Ukrainian Public Sentiment and Political Alignment

• Westward Alignment Statistics:     * December 2012 (Democratic Initiatives Foundation Poll): Only $15\,\%$ of Ukrainians favored joining NATO.     * January 2022 (Eve of War): Support for joining NATO rose to $64\,\%$.     * Post-Invasion: According to the Ukraine Institute of the Future, support has likely risen far higher.

• European Union (EU) Progression:     * Ukraine has entered the formal process of joining the EU.     * The desperation for admission might finally drive Ukraine to address its "epidemic corruption problem," which previously hindered its integration with the West.

• Demilitarization and De-Nazification Failure:     * Demilitarization: Failed as international arms continue to pour into Ukraine.     * De-Nazification: If this intended to establish a compliant regime or destroy democracy, the failure is described as total.

Linguistic and National Identity in Ukraine

• Treatment of Russian Speakers:     * Putin claimed a goal of the war was to rescue and protect Russian speakers from discrimination.     * Insiders report it is nearly impossible to convince Moscow officials that Russian speakers in Ukraine are not being discriminated against.     * National vs. Linguistic Identity: The majority of Russian speakers have sided with Ukraine, demonstrating that national identity is distinct from linguistic identity.     * The use of the Russian language in Ukraine is expected to slide as it is now viewed as the language of the "hated invader."

Military Degradation and Historical Legacy

• The Failure of Russian Military Might:     * In $2014$, Putin bragged of possessing $1,200,000$ soldiers and the world's most sophisticated weaponry, claiming he could take Kyiv in $2\,\text{days}$.     * The current war revealed the military to be "poorly led and undermotivated."     * Russian defenders with less training and equipment repelled forces from Kyiv.     * Gains in the Southeast were only achieved by "pulverizing the territory from a distance" and occupying "substantially depopulated rubble."

• Historical Judgment:     * Steve Chapman of the Chicago Tribune notes that while Putin admires Peter the Great and seeks to emulate his imperial rule, he will likely be remembered as "Vladimir the Fool" rather than "Vladimir the Great."     * The author concludes that this "self-inflicted debacle" will make other world leaders more "trigger-shy," ultimately continuing the decline of international war.