Stone and Wilcox 2020 - Empty Cradles Mean a Bleaker Future

• Fertility fell in the US after the Great Recession

• in 2020, the TFR fell below 1.7 → exceptionally low fertility rate

• COVID-19 fertility fallout

• The lost births will be felt among Hispanic, Native American, Black and working-class white women → most vulnerable

• A rising share of American men and women will be childless

• Declining fertility is not just a tempo effect (lost births now will be made up later)

• Women’s transition into parenthood is delayed

• The fertility level is going well below replacement-level

• Consequences of declining fertility:

  • Economy

    • Slower growth

    • Loss of economic dynamism

    • Rising inequality

  • Public programs

    • Underfunded pensions

    • Overburdened health systems

    • Collapsing local governments

  • National security

    • Fewer potential soldiers

• Real tragedy: what it means for the men and women who will not have the kids they hoped to have

  • Women are more likely to report they didn’t have as many children as they wished to have

  • Average number of women desiring children is rising to more than 2 children

• Women’s concern: economic + social difficulties associated with parenthood

  • Financial costs

  • Time demands of parenting

  • State of the economy

• Most of the decline in birthrates has been among younger, less-educated, minority, and unmarried women

• Family life: is becoming an upper-middle-class luxury good

• Bare branches: term for men (or women) without kin

• More older people are living without a spouse

  • Aging + dying alone, unvisited and uncared for

  • Ex: pandemic → extreme isolation

• Covid

  • Delayed childbearing

  • Some women: want a greater total number of children (don’t want to die alone)

• Having children: now makes people happier if it doesn’t bring financial distress

• We need to help families achieve their desired size

• Solutions:

  • Provide reasonable financial support to families

  • Remove obstacles to marriage

  • Create a more family-friendly society

Adshade 2020 - Falling Birthrates Are No Big Deal

• Delayed parenthood

• Importance of age impact on birth rates

• Low fertility rates are not bad for economic growth and they don’t lead to high levels of government debt

• In the US, technology is driving the growth, not population growth

• Decline in teen birthrates

  • Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program - 2010

  • Causes the TFR to underestimate the future number of births

• Completed fertility: the number of children women have had by their early 40s

  • It is increasing

• Men delay even more childbearing

  • Overestimate how easy it will be to have children when they are older

  • Underestimate how effective medical interventions are at overcoming the relevant problems

→ Because of that, they will probably never have children

Cohen 2013 A - Declining Fertility Is Not the Root of America’s Problem

• We should focus on making things work with fewer children, which would improve the lives of children

• The scary drop in TFR is due to the recession and it’s bottoming out

• US: has the highest fertility rate among major rich countries

• Getting populations to have more children doesn’t work

• Birth rates do not primarily respond to government policies (except in draconian cases)

• Fertility: is mostly about economics and culture

• Today, people have fewer children in China because they have become too expensive

Cohen 2013 B - Let’s Not Panic Over Women With More Education Having Fewer Kids

• Women with more education: have fewer children

• We must figure out how to raise and support fewer children to be happy and productive

• Fewer children = higher status (and vice-versa)

  • Individual level + societal level

• Countries with lower fertility have less gender inequality

• There is a lot that can be done about gender inequality once fertility rates are reduced

• Fertility rates of more educated women are rising