Stone and Wilcox, Adshade, Cohen

Stone and Wilcox 2020 - Empty Cradles Mean a Bleaker Future

  • Fertility fell in the US after the Great Recession
  • in 2020, the TFR fell below 1.7 → exceptionally low fertility rate
  • COVID-19 fertility fallout
  • The lost births will be felt among Hispanic, Native American, Black and working-class white women → most vulnerable
  • A rising share of American men and women will be childless
  • Declining fertility is not just a tempo effect (lost births now will be made up later)
  • Women’s transition into parenthood is delayed
  • The fertility level is going well below replacement-level
  • Consequences of declining fertility:   * Economy     * Slower growth     * Loss of economic dynamism     * Rising inequality   * Public programs     * Underfunded pensions     * Overburdened health systems     * Collapsing local governments   * National security     * Fewer potential soldiers
  • Real tragedy: what it means for the men and women who will not have the kids they hoped to have   * Women are more likely to report they didn’t have as many children as they wished to have   * Average number of women desiring children is rising to more than 2 children
  • Women’s concern: economic + social difficulties associated with parenthood   * Financial costs   * Time demands of parenting   * State of the economy
  • Most of the decline in birthrates has been among younger, less-educated, minority, and unmarried women
  • Family life: is becoming an upper-middle-class luxury good
  • Bare branches: term for men (or women) without kin
  • More older people are living without a spouse   * Aging + dying alone, unvisited and uncared for   * Ex: pandemic → extreme isolation
  • Covid   * Delayed childbearing   * Some women: want a greater total number of children (don’t want to die alone)
  • Having children: now makes people happier if it doesn’t bring financial distress
  • We need to help families achieve their desired size
  • Solutions:   * Provide reasonable financial support to families   * Remove obstacles to marriage   * Create a more family-friendly society

Adshade 2020 - Falling Birthrates Are No Big Deal

  • Delayed parenthood
  • Importance of age impact on birth rates
  • Low fertility rates are not bad for economic growth and they don’t lead to high levels of government debt
  • In the US, technology is driving the growth, not population growth
  • Decline in teen birthrates   * Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program - 2010   * Causes the TFR to underestimate the future number of births
  • Completed fertility: the number of children women have had by their early 40s   * It is increasing
  • Men delay even more childbearing   * Overestimate how easy it will be to have children when they are older   * Underestimate how effective medical interventions are at overcoming the relevant problems

→ Because of that, they will probably never have children

Cohen 2013 A - Declining Fertility Is Not the Root of America’s Problem

  • We should focus on making things work with fewer children, which would improve the lives of children
  • The scary drop in TFR is due to the recession and it’s bottoming out
  • US: has the highest fertility rate among major rich countries
  • Getting populations to have more children doesn’t work
  • Birth rates do not primarily respond to government policies (except in draconian cases)
  • Fertility: is mostly about economics and culture
  • Today, people have fewer children in China because they have become too expensive

Cohen 2013 B - Let’s Not Panic Over Women With More Education Having Fewer Kids

  • Women with more education: have fewer children
  • We must figure out how to raise and support fewer children to be happy and productive
  • Fewer children = higher status (and vice-versa)   * Individual level + societal level
  • Countries with lower fertility have less gender inequality
  • There is a lot that can be done about gender inequality once fertility rates are reduced
  • Fertility rates of more educated women are rising

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