Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait

Overview of the Monograph

This monograph, authored by Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris, analyzes the evolving dynamics of deterrence concerning Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It presents an urgent assessment of how deteriorating deterrence mechanisms may increase the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan within the next decade.

Key Themes

Historical Context of Deterrence

The authors establish a historical framework of deterrence mechanisms against China’s aggression towards Taiwan, dating back to 1949. They argue that various deterrents, both external (from the United States and allies) and internal (self-restraint in China), have historically contributed to maintaining the status quo.

Decay of Deterrence

McKinney and Harris assert that the effectiveness of these deterrents is sharply declining. Several factors contribute to this decay:

Military Modernization: The PRC’s military capabilities are increasing, making threats of deterrence from Taiwan and the U.S. less credible.
Political Changes in Taiwan: The election of pro-independence leaders in Taiwan has hardened attitudes against both reconciliation and deterrent strategies.
Erosion of the One China Framework: The authors claim the concept of a One China policy, once a stabilizing diplomatic tool, is increasingly unsustainable due to shifting political dynamics and aggressive Chinese policies.
Domestic Legitimacy Problems in China: As economic challenges persist, the Chinese Communist Party may lean more on nationalism and aggressive foreign policy to consolidate its domestic legitimacy, increasing the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan.

Dynamics Influencing Chinese Decision-Making

The monograph identifies four key variables currently influencing the decision-making calculus of Chinese leadership:

Erosion of the One China framework as a viable peace tool.
Nationalistic Appeals by the Chinese Communist Party to legitimize rule amid economic adversity.
Decoupling from Global Semiconductor Supply Chains due to U.S. export restrictions, making military action seem less costly.
Shifting Balance of Military Power suggesting an imminent preference for action from Chinese leaders before they lose military advantage.

Deterring Future Conflict

The authors discuss urgent steps needed to restore deterrence:

Investment in Asymmetric Military Capabilities: Taiwan is advised to enhance its defensive stratagem adopting asymmetric warfare tactics intended to impose higher costs on potential invaders.
International Cooperation: Strengthening international partnerships, particularly through the U.S. commitment to Taiwan, is emphasized. The goal is to present a united front that dissuades Chinese aggression.
Developing Deterrents: Establish robust, interconnected deterrent frameworks, combining military, economic, and diplomatic strategies to counteract the decay of previous deterrents.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

Short-Term Strategies: The need for Taiwan to reassess its self-defense capabilities and enhance its military readiness, including potential preemptive measures against invasion.
Long-Term Planning: The authors suggest Taiwan and the U.S. collaborate to create a strategic environment where the costs of invasion outweigh any perceived benefits for China.
Economic Considerations: These strategies should also leverage economic interdependencies, particularly the high stakes involved in Taiwan's semiconductor industry, which could serve as a deterrent against invasion.

Conclusion

The monograph concludes with a stark warning: Taiwan's security situation is increasingly precarious, with an urgent need for prompt action to reinforce deterrents before it faces a stark reality of conflict. The authors emphasize that deterrence is still possible, contingent upon wise policy decisions by Taiwan and its allies to reinstate the credibility of deterrents against a backdrop of rapidly evolving geopolitical threats.

Key Takeaways

Current U.S. policies must navigate a delicate balance of supporting Taiwan without provoking an aggressive response from China.
Taiwanese military strategy must evolve to emphasize defensive capabilities that can effectively counteract a potential invasion.
The deterioration of deterrence mechanisms represents a critical turning point for Taiwanese security in the coming decade, requiring immediate and cooperative responses from the U.S. and regional allies.