Authoritarian Legitimation and the Russo-Ukrainian War

The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was driven by domestic interests, specifically the legitimation of Vladimir Putin's personalist autocracy, rather than pure geopolitical security gains.
The study addresses why Russia invaded and how Putin’s regime benefits from warfare through social support and the justification of repressive policies.

Three Pillars of Stability: Authoritarian regimes rely on repression, co-optation (economic distribution), and legitimation (Gerschewski, 2013).
Diversionary War Theory: Leaders initiate armed conflicts to distract from domestic woes, boost nationalism, and demonstrate competence (Oakes, 2012).
Securitization Theory: Threats are socially constructed by "securitizing agents" to justify "urgent measures" and executive expansion (Buzan et al., 1998).
Protection Pacts: Perceived threats allow elites and society to coalesce around an autocrat for security, reinforcing regime durability (Slater, 2010).

Economic Stagnation: Following the early 2000s economic boom, the 2010s saw downturns and weakened "authoritarian bargains."
Protest Instability: Major protests occurred in 2011 (electoral fraud), 2017 (corruption), and 2021 (imprisonment of Alexei Navalny).
"Rally 'round the Flag" Effect: Levada Center data shows Putin's approval ratings peak during conflicts, such as the Second Chechen War (1999–2000), the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, and the 2022 invasion.
Siege Mentality: The regime promotes the belief that Russia is surrounded by a hostile world to foster group solidarity.

The "Collective West": NATO expansion and Western liberal values are framed as existential threats to Russian traditional values.
Historical Revisionism: Putin's 2021 article "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" argues Ukraine was an artificial creation of the Soviet era and a Western "anti-Russia" project.
Orange Revolution (2004): This event served as a catalyst for shifting the narrative from internal threats (Chechnya) to external threats (NATO/Ukraine).

Repressive Legislation: The 2012 "foreign agents" law was used to crack down on NGOs like Memorial and oppositionists; a record 188 agents were registered in 2022.
Disinformation Laws: 2022 bills mandate the term "special military operation" and criminalize "disinformation" about the armed forces.
Militocracy: The conflict empowers the siloviki (security establishment), shifting influence away from business elites.
Institutional Confidence: 2022 ratings showed high trust in the president ( $80\%$ ), the army ( $77\%$ ), and security organs ( $61\%$ ).

New Russia Barometer (2007): Analysis shows the perception of the US as a threat significantly correlates with approval for dictatorship and Soviet nostalgia.
Presidential Addresses: Mentions of external threats in Putin's speeches rose to almost $30\%$ by 2023.
Detentions: Over 19,600 people were detained for anti-war stances between February 2022 and April 2023 (OVD-Info).