Benner's Prophecies of Future Prices

BENNER'S PROPHECIES OF FUTURE UPS AND DOWNS IN PRICES

  • Author: Samuel Benner, Ohio Farmer
  • Published: Cincinnati: Robert Clarke & Co., 1884

PREFACE

  • Objective:
    • To provide a clear exposition of the price fluctuations for certain products and commodities in the market.
    • Aimed at those struggling in finance and commerce to achieve competence.
  • Key Themes:
    • Understanding supply and demand is essential for predicting future prices.
    • Importance of speculative activity in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing.
  • Challenges in prediction:
    • Risks associated with business operations and financial contracts.
  • Author's Intent:
    • To offer practical predictions for high and low price years to assist farmers and manufacturers in making informed decisions.

INTRODUCTION

  • Observations:
    • The average prices of pig-iron, hogs, corn, and provisions have shown regular fluctuations.
    • Understanding these trends can lead to success in trading.
  • Predictions:
    • A downward trend in prices is expected for the next two years.
    • The author's intention is to utilize historical price data to forecast future trends accurately.

PREDICTIONS

PIG-IRON

  • Forecasts on prices for No. 1 foundry charcoal pig-iron:
    • 1876: Lower than 1875.
    • 1877: Lower than 1876 (daily prices dropping below $20/ton).
    • 1878: Higher than 1877.
    • 1879: Higher than 1878.
    • 1880: Higher than 1879.
    • 1881: Higher than 1880 (potential daily prices exceeding $50/ton).

HOGS

  • Price Forecasts:
    • 1876: Lower than 1875.
    • 1877: Lower than 1876.
    • 1878: Higher than 1877.
    • 1879: Higher than 1878.
    • 1880: Higher than 1879.

PANIC

  • Major Predictions:
    • Expect considerable business depression and failures in 1876 and 1877.
    • Anticipate a commercial revulsion and financial crisis in 1891.
  • Importance of Timing:
    • Knowledge of predicted downturns can lead to financial savings.

MARKET CYCLES AND THEORIES

  • Concept of Cycles:
    • Price behaviors (ups and downs) seen as cyclical and predictable.
    • The author does not claim to possess a "gift of prophecy," but outlines rules based on historical patterns.
  • Empirical Basis:
    • Predictions based on twenty years of observations, utilizing data from reliable sources.

WEATHER AND PRODUCTION

  • Weather's Role:
    • Weather patterns impact agricultural production and pricing.
    • Limitations of current forecasting abilities due to lack of detailed weather statistics.

CAUSAL CONNECTIONS

  • Discussion of how cyclical patterns correlate with natural laws.
  • Emphasis on observable phenomena (weather changes, price fluctuations in hogs and corn).

CONCLUSIONS

  • The author stresses the importance of understanding these cycles for successful trading.
  • Successful traders predict market conditions, while others risk loss due to ignorance.
  • The cyclical nature of prices across various commodities highlighted as a roadmap for future investment.

ADDENDA (1884)

  • Updates and revisions to earlier findings.
  • Added a new chapter on Railroads, highlighting the importance of this industry in price cycles.
  • Continued emphasis on the importance of understanding historical cycles to predict market conditions.