demographics

50-50 Nation

red america (repubs):

blue america (dems):

white

rainbow coalition

overwhelmingly Protestant

attending church isn’t important

joined by practising Catholics (abortion)

wealthier, predominantly urban

wealthy

thinks the federal govt should do more to solve problems

rural/suburban

supports tax increases for the wealthy

thinks govt does too much, better left to private businesses/individuals

pro-choice

supports cuts in federal income tax

supports gun control

pro-life

pro-same sex marriage

pro-guns

supports obamacare

pro-trad marriage

watches cnn n snl

opposed to obamacare

loved the clintons, hated bush n trump

watches fox news, listens to conservative talk radio

loved george bush, hated cintons n obama

voting preferences: 2020

biden

trump

female

57%

43%

male

45%

53%

white evangelical Christians

24%

76%

no religion

62%

31%

hispanic

65%

32%

white

41%

58%

black

87%

12%

college graduate

55%

43%

no college degree

48%

50%

gender

  • clear trend of women showing a stronger preference for Democrats

  • consistent with other recent elections

    • in 2012: 55% of women voted Democrat n in 2016 was 54%

  • there’s no major difference between the vote preference of men n women, although the gap has been wider in previous elections

  • other social groups are more significant in determining voting behaviour.

    • eg: there’s a bigger division if you compare gender within racial groupings

biden:

trump:

black men

87%

12%

black women

95%

5%

hispanic men

57%

40%

hispanic women

61%

37%

white men

40%

57%

white women

46%

53%

race

  • racial minority groups show overwhelming support for the Dems

    • socio-economics could be a driving factor here though given 90%+ of black voters support the Dems in many elections

  • other racial minority groups also show a strong preference for the Dems

    • native Americans typically support the Dems

    • whites however are more Repub » 58% of the white vote in 2012, 2016 n 2020

  • hispanic voters are more unpredictable

  • republicans managed to secure significant Hispanic support

  • in 2004, gw bush secured 44% of the Hispanic vote

  • party support amongst whites is also unpredictable as the % gap is lower in this group

religion

  • very strong support amongst white evangelical born again Christians for the Republicans at 76%

    • consistent pattern

  • other religious groupings such as Jewish ppl n those without religion show a strong preference

  • the difference amongst Christians in general in their support for the Dems or Repubs is not as clear

  • Catholics tend to favour Dems by a small margin

  • differences only become apparent when considering Evangelicals

education

  • the higher the level of education, the more liberal that person is likely to be

  • can be seen in 55% of college-educated voters who supported Biden with this figure rising to 67% for those who completed postgraduate education

  • as with UK politics, education is only emerging as an important factor in more recent elections

  • smaller gap between the 2 parties amongst college-educated voters in 2020 compared to 2012 n 2016

  • other social groupings esp race, income n age may have a bigger bearing on choice than levels of education