The Iraq War: The Al Anbar Awakening, the Surge, and US Withdrawal

Context of the Escalating Civil War (2006)

• Governmental Transition: Iraq had transitioned to a new government under Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, yet the civil war continued to escalate despite the political shift.

• Escalation of Violence: Attacks from insurgents were increasing, leading the White House and the Pentagon to ramp up their use of military force.

• Limits of Kinetic Force: US service members and certain Iraqi factions realized that a purely military solution (“shooting their way to a victory”) was not feasible.

• Casualty Statistics:

  • During the initial invasion and major combat operations in March and April $2003$, the United States lost fewer than $300$ service members.

  • In $2004$ and $2005$, the death toll for Americans in Iraq tripled compared to the initial invasion figures.

  • By $2006$, US troops in Fallujah and Ramadi were frequently targeted by small arms fire and roadside bombs (IEDs).

The Al Anbar Awakening (Sahwa)

• Definition: A process of realignment and reconciliation where Iraqi Sunnis struck a modus vivendi (a way of getting along) with their former American adversaries.

• The Turn Against Al Qaeda: While foreign Sunni operatives following Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Al Qaeda practiced extreme religious violence, indigenous Iraqi Sunnis (many former Ba'ath Party members or Saddam Hussein supporters) were not enthusiastic about these alien extremist groups.

• Motivations for Alignment:

  • Iraqi Sunnis were alienated by Paul Bremer’s Order Number $1$ (De-Ba'athification) and Order Number $2$ (Dissolution of the Iraqi Military) in May $2003$.

  • They chafed at the violence of the US occupation, specifically referenced in the Battles of Fallujah in $2004$.

  • Eventually, they viewed the Americans as the ‘lesser of two evils’ compared to the brutality of Al Qaeda.

• Leadership of Abdul Sattar Abu Ghurisha: In September $2006$, the Sunni leader known as Abu Risha began organizing Sunni elites in Western Iraq to assist the US military in fighting Al Qaeda and the insurgency. This movement was centered in Anbar Province, giving it the name "The Al Anbar Awakening."

Key Military Figures and Counterinsurgency Tactics

• Captain Travis Patrick Quinn: An Arabic-speaking officer who brokered deals with local Iraqi leaders. He emphasized listening to the local population and striking compromises rather than imposing ideas through force.

  • The Quinn Comic Book: Quinn authored a famous instructional guide illustrated with PowerPoint stick figures that detailed how to turn the tide against Al Qaeda through cooperation.

• General David Petraeus: George W. Bush put Petraeus in charge of "The Surge." He scaled up the local-level cooperation pioneered by soldiers like Patrick Quinn.

• Counterinsurgency (COIN) Doctrine: This innovation focused on reversing the exclusion of Sunnis and addressing the insecurity caused by Bremer’s initial orders. Use of revenue flows was central to this strategy:

  • The US began paying former insurgents to serve as neighborhood guards rather than fighting them as enemies.

  • At the peak, Petraeus was spending approximately $30,000,000$ per month to hire these guards.

  • Individual salaries for these guards ranged from $300$ to $500$ per month.

• Evolution of Categorization: The strategy involved reclassifying ‘evildoers’ or ‘insurgents’ into ‘partners in counterinsurgency.’

The Execution of Saddam Hussein

• Conviction: In November $2006$, an Iraqi court convicted Saddam Hussein of crimes against humanity.

• Sentence: He was sentenced to death by hanging.

• Execution Details: The sentence was carried out on December $30, 2006$.

• Sectarian Tensions: Leaked cell phone footage revealed that during his final moments, Shiite guards taunted Saddam with sectarian slogans and cheered the name of Muqtada al-Sadr. Saddam replied, “Is that what you call manhood?”

The Surge of 2007

• Policy Shift: Despite public expectations of a withdrawal due to rising casualties and the absence of WMDs, President Bush announced a troop increase on January $10, 2007$.

• Resource Allocation: Bush committed over $20,000$ additional troops, primarily five brigades deployed to Baghdad.

• Troop Ceiling: The expansion of the US presence, known as “The Surge,” eventually maxed out at approximately $170,000$ troops.

• Objectives: The goal was to clear and secure neighborhoods, protect the local population, and embed with Iraqi units to ensure they were capable of maintaining security in Baghdad.

The ‘Sons of Iraq’ and Local Security

• Formation: The US military paid local residents to form units known as the “Sons of Iraq.”

• Effectiveness in West Baghdad:

  • West Baghdad, once a prosperous area compared to Notting Hill, had become a “no-go zone” for US troops due to Al Qaeda influence.

  • After the formation of the Sons of Iraq, tip-offs about Al Qaeda activities “rocketed” and attacks on US troops plummeted.

  • Captain Mark Badges reported that IED attacks in his sector dropped from one per day in June/July $2007$ to nearly zero.

• Shift in Strategy: Captain Badges noted a transition from patrolling in Humvees to walking the streets and speaking with market owners, acknowledging the balance between the risk of foot patrols and the strategic necessity of local engagement.

Statistical Outcomes and Casualties

• Reduction in Civilian Deaths: In December $2006$, approximately $2,900$ Iraqi civilians were killed per month. By January $2009$, the death toll had dropped to $586$ per month.

• The Human Cost of the Awakening:

  • Captain Travis Patrick Quinn was killed by a roadside bomb in December $2006$.

  • Abdul Sattar Abu Ghurisha (Abu Risha) was assassinated in September $2007$, only ten days after meeting with President Bush in Iraq.

• Cumulative Loss: Anbar Province alone accounted for roughly $1,100$ US deaths, particularly in the cities of Fallujah, Ramadi, and Haditha.

• Personal Narratives: Gretchen Mack, from rural Wyoming, lost her $19$-year-old son in Iraq and uses long-distance walking as therapy to cope with the loss.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Al Qaeda in Iraq

• The Alaskaria Shrine Bombing: In early $2006$, armed men in police uniforms bombed the golden-domed Alaskaria Shrine in Samarra, a holiest site in Shia Islam, sparking intense ethno-sectarian violence.

• Zarqawi’s Brutality: Zarqawi was described as personifying a “dark, sadistic, and medieval vision” involving beheadings and suicide bombings.

• Nicholas Berg: A $26$-year-old American freelance radio technician kidnapped and brutally beheaded by Zarqawi’s group in $2004$. Decapitation became a signature tactic of this militant branch.

• Death of Zarqawi: He was killed by a US airstrike using a $500$-pound bomb after the military confirmed his location.

The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and Withdrawal

• Political Shift: Following the $2008$ election, Barack Obama prepared to uphold his campaign pledge to leave Iraq.

• SOFA Terms: Signed on December $14, 2008$, by Bush and Maliki, the agreement mandated:

  • US troops must pull out of most Iraqi cities by the summer of $2009$.

  • All American troops must depart by the end of $2011$.

• Sovereignty Day: Prime Minister Maliki proposed that January $1, 2009$ be celebrated as ‘Sovereignty Day’ as the Green Zone reverted to Iraqi authority.

• Conclusion of Operations: The last full combat brigade (the $4$th Striker Brigade of the $2$nd Infantry Division) crossed into Kuwait in late $2010$. Operation Iraqi Freedom officially ended in December $2011$, with the Iraqi people taking full lead responsibility for security.

Questions & Discussion

• Was the Surge successful?: President Bush maintained that “The surge is succeeding. We are winning in Iraq.” Conversely, some critics argued the war was lost and the violence remained extreme.

• What was the primary factor in the change of course?: The most prominent controllable factor was the shift from imposing direct rule to working indirectly through popular local authorities on the American payroll.

• The Risks of Engagement: A US unit lost five soldiers when a man they were speaking to in the street detonated a suicide vest under his clothes, highlighting the danger of the “close to the people” strategy.