Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis

Four-Hour Downtrend Analysis

  • Price broke down from left to right, indicating a clear four-hour downtrend.
  • Pivot points are marked to dissect the structure.
  • Following a break of structure, a retracement is typically expected.
  • Previous price behavior shows price going down, retracing a lot.
  • No aggressive expansions are mitigating previous supply ranges.

One-Hour Dissection of the Last Leg

  • Structure is forming from top to low.
  • High, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, and lower low are identified.
  • The last one-hour lower high is noted.
  • Fractal structure within this leg will be analyzed on the 15-minute timeframe.
  • Pivot points are marked.

15-Minute Timeframe Analysis

  • Looking for the downtrend that exists within the leg.
  • Lower low, lower high, and lower low are identified.
  • Pivot points of the fractal structure are marked.
  • Structure went up and appears to be returning for a slowdown.
  • Potential for the fractal structure to make a higher low, higher high, etc., for a larger swing pullback.

Determining Fractal Structure Potential

  • Watch the structure between the high and low.
  • If structure transitions bullish, the low has likely been established.

Five-Minute Timeframe Analysis

  • Structure is forming from the top down.
  • Lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, and possibly a lower high are identified.
  • Breaking the high would indicate a potential structure shift.
  • Waiting for the low to be taken and a structure transition would be ideal.
  • Different levels of internal structure are contained within the fractal structure.
  • No break of structure occurs initially; price continues lower.
  • A lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, and lower low are established.
  • The low is taken, confirming it as a valid structure point.

Identifying Potential Targets

  • If a close on the 15-minute timeframe occurs above a specified point, price will likely head towards a weak swing level.
  • Breaking the one-hour lower high with a one-hour close suggests a move towards the four-hour lower high.
  • Breaking the four-hour lower high with a four-hour close would initiate a new uptrend on the four-hour timeframe.

Trade Execution

  • Patience is necessary.
  • A close above a key level occurs, prompting consideration of a long position.
  • Initial trade idea involves a long position with a stop loss under the recent low, targeting the recent high.
  • Looking for mitigation within a specific zone to add to the position.

Analyzing Contents of the Move Up

  • The fractal move up between the high and low is analyzed for a break in structure.
  • Structure presents itself with an up, down, up pattern.
  • A previous range demand zone is identified as a potential mitigation area.
  • If the low is broken, the trade may need to be derisked.

Scaling into the Trade

  • Scaling in is considered as structure forms.
  • Potential for a mitigation of a newer demand zone.
  • If the high is broken, more may be added.

Structure Development

  • Structure drawing evolves as higher highs and higher lows form, indicating a favorable trend.
  • Another range demand model is identified as a potential entry point.
  • The trade is now considered safe and free, with a stop loss adjusted accordingly.
  • Partials are taken as the high is hit.
  • The purple structure drawing is no longer relevant and can be removed.

Continuing the Structure Drawing

  • Continuing on with the red drawing indicates a possible mitigation at the unmitigated portion of the move.
  • If price does not mitigate and breaks below, the scenario becomes risky.
  • Bullish structure change out of the demand zone would be desired.

Higher Timeframe Perspective

  • On the fifteen-minute timeframe, a break in structure is observed.
  • The target may still be a weak high, and the four-hour lower high is the primary swing structure point.
  • However, if structure turns bearish locally, the high becomes weak.

Trade Management and Structure Analysis

  • The red and black structures meet, indicating convergence.
  • Prices coming back to mitigate that demand range are marked.
  • Waiting for upside initiation is marked.

Structure Following Mitigation

  • Mitigation of the demand range occurs, and we await further upside initiation.
  • Monitoring structure from high to low to gauge the potential higher low.
  • Breaking the identified level confirms higher low.
  • Inefficient price action and fair value gaps are noted below.
    • Using a fair value gap indicator is valuable to identify them. Alternatively, the gaps can be drawn manually.

Identifying New Highs and Lows

  • After wicking into fair value gaps and order blocks, the next goal is to break the high.
  • A refined mitigation occurs.

New Trading Ranges and Structure Changes

  • New trading ranges are marked.
  • A structure change occurs from the internal high downwards: down, up, down, up, down; breaking up.

Analyzing Potential Failures and Weak Levels

  • Analysis identifies the two-minute screw-up.
  • Consideration for if entering long without confirming structure.
  • Entering long after breaking past structural point and finding support there.

Concluding the Trade and Reflecting on Structure

  • Taking the profit at a high.
  • There is no such thing as being perfect.
  • Analysis of the down, up, down, up, down, up, down on the four hour scale.

The Importance of Following Structure

  • It's best to have something against you before switching to longs.
  • For shorts, wait for something to come up against your position to switch to shorts.