trends

So what even is a trend in the US? First place, okay? A trend, it's almost like, You have a basketball. Ball on a flat surface. You just push it, right? It's going to roll and roll and roll and roll, okay? Because of that momentum that's pushing it forward, okay? Same thing with market, okay? When market gets a little push or a market structure shift, it's going to start trending. Okay, soGlitching.

This is why I need my PC. Which is coming in like... Three weeks, but I ordered it and it's on its way. But anyways, Why do we care about the trend? Because it tells us exactly where market's going. Okay, so the very first thing that we need to understand is how can we spot a trend within the market? And it's honestly one of the easiest and one of the most simple things taught in day trading. Okay, so when market is trending higher, okay, let me do this.

That was terrible, but... When market is trending higher, there we go, put a little cap on it. It moves. In higher highs and higher lows, right? It'll look something like this, just with a bunch of little candlesticks in the way. And we'll show real life examples of this on charts. But this is like a very simplified version of a trend, right? This is a high. This is a low. When it pushes past this high, it makes a new high that's higher than the previous one. And it makes a new low that's higher than the previous one.

So higher highs. and higher lows.

But, okay.

Let's get back here.

Right, just like that. And it continues all the way until it breaks its trend, okay? So same thing with the downtrend, just the exact opposite. For downtrends, it is lower highs and lower looks. That is honestly what a chart could look like though. Okay, that was terrible. I had to do it with my other finger, but I don't have a mouse yet. Okay, so, right? Downtrend, very similar. We have a high right here, then we make a low right here. Let's say we have a low.

And we had low right here, right? This low is lower than this one. This high is lower than this one and it continues. Okay, and it's really easy to see these trends. What? Oh, oops. It's really easy to see these trends within markets Okay. So... Right, if we just go to the daily. Right here. Okay. We see. Or this is just a more recent break in structure. We can We can highlight this one right here. Okay. So write down over here.

Okay, we haveDude. A high, then a low. Boom. What do we get? A higher high, then a higher low. Then boom. What do we get? A higher high, a higher low. Okay, boom. What do we get? A higher high, a higher low. Boom, higher high, higher low, higher high. Higher high. Now, lower low because we just surpassed this. So what can we assume that market's going to do now that it broke structure? It's probably going to flip its direction, right?

Let me get all these drawings off of here so it looks better. But you can see that, right, once we broke structure and changed direction of the trend, we continued that for a while, right? And now that we just broke structure, odds are we're going to start trending in the opposite direction for a little bit. Okay, so With this understanding, what can this help us do? Trends give us the overall idea of where market is going. Is it exactly how we are going to execute every single time?

No. We're not just going to go, okay, once the high gets pushed above, we're going to enter a trade. That's how you can get stopped out. There's a bunch of problems with that and we want to optimize our entry. However, the The trend is pretty much telling us what direction to place our trades in, okay? Because if market is trending in one direction, why in the world, right? If market is trending to the upside, why in the world would you try and take a trade to the downside?

If the momentum is pushing it to the upside, wouldn't you want to ride that wave? Wouldn't you want to, you know, be on, right? It's like, um, it's like if you're in a car, right? If you're in a car and you don't have a gas or a brake pedal and you want to get... And you want to get to a certain point. Okay, there's two roads that you can take. uphill or downhill? Okay, which car are you going to get in?

The one that's going uphill or downhill if you want to get to the end of that road? You're probably going to want to go downhill, right? Because the momentum will just take you there instantly. Versus if you try and go uphill... You're not going anywhere, right? It's very similar with with trading in these trends. Okay, you want to be able to Follow this wave, okay? Follow the momentum because that's where price is going to go either way, right?

There's no reason to try and catch a retracement because one, you don't know how far or how deep that retracement is. Like this right here, we had a very small low get formed here. And this, we had a very big low. But the extension is always the same. The extension always goes past the high, right? We see the high get pushed through. High get pushed through. High get pushed through. High get pushed through.

Every single time, high gets pushed through. Okay? So, with that being said, wouldn't it make sense for us to follow that momentum? Okay, so that is our goal. If you can identify a trend, okay, which most of you guys should, most of you guys should be able to do that because it's a fairly, beginner, um, beginner subject, all right? But you want to follow these overarching trends, okay? And when I say overarching trends, this is where it gets kind of tricky because people get so caught up in all these different timeframes, okay?

They see different trends on a bunch of different timeframes, right? There could be a hundred different trend switches and changes on the 15-minute Over the course of this weekly uptrend that we outlined, right, there's probably way more than that.

There's probably like a couple thousand different trends, switches and changes within that weekly uptrend on the 15 minute timeframe.

And that's where people go wrong a lot of the times. They get so caught up on these small timeframes saying, oh, the 15 minute broke structure. But higher time frames hold higher power. If the four hour is saying, no, we're bearish, we're bearish right now, it's going to go lower and lower and lower, but the 15 minute just broke structure, why do we care about what the 15 minute is saying? We want to use the 15 minute in confluence with the higher trend.

So if the four hour, if the daily, if the weekly is telling us that market is going to go down And the 15 minute is telling us market's going to go up. Why don't we just wait for the 15 minute to tell us, okay, market's going to go down now. Right, that would make sense because then, We can follow the trail. trend of the market, okay, and then also scale down to the shorter term time frames, right?

Because we know that these high time frames are going to push price in that direction, but we want an optimized entry, right? That's what I was just talking about. We want to go on these lower time frames and be able to catch the large high time frame trend moves, but with an optimized entry. Okay. So. That is why trends are so important. They literally help optimize your entry and help push price in the direction that you want price to go, right? Going against the trend is never smart.

And this has honestly been one of my biggest struggles and issues in trading is trading against the trend and trading against my bias. I'm very good at being able to spot, okay, this is where market wants to go. You know, like this is, I know where market wants to go on a high timeframe. It's pretty easy to spot. However, when I get onto these smaller timeframes, I'm like, oh wait, wait a second. This could be a liquidity sweep and then a retracement.

But that's the issue, right? We can't be trading off of retracements. We have to be trading off of... We have to be trading off of... Fuck, what? We... We have to be trading off of momentum. I'm sorry, I just spaced the fuck out for a second. Okay, so. Trade with the trend the trend is your friend. I know it's I know it's stupid, but it's very very true Okay, the trend is your friend and you're probably going to say well wait TJR I thought you trade off of liquidity sweeps.

I thought you trade off of trends changing Yes, we do but on lower time frames, right we trade off of that on lower time frame so if we see a liquidity sweep And if we see like a liquidity sweep on the 30 minute time frame, And then a break of structure to the downside on the five minute time frame and the four hour and the daily are saying bear bear bear bear bear. That's great. That's perfect. That means that we just caught the top.

of the next leg down. Okay, that's why I trade the way that I do. Okay, so now that we understand how to read a trend, how to spot them, right? So literally just higher highs and higher lows, and the next trading video will jump into break of structure because that's going to be huge, okay? I might even do two trading videos on that because people do seem to get confused on it, which is pretty interesting because it is a fairly simple concept to grasp, but I do want to make sure people understand it because it's...

It is very, very important when understanding these markets and how they move and how structure shifts and how trends form and how, you know, just markets are moving in general. Okay. So the trend is your friend. Trade with the trend, right? Obviously, it's hard for me to say... At this point in the boot camp, it's hard for me to be like... Yeah, the downtrend, it's hard for me to tell you exactly where and when to execute code because we don't have all the pieces yet, right? This is just giving...

An overall umbrella, right? Find that overall umbrella. And again, we need to start on these main overarching themes. to get lower and lower and lower and more exact so we can be able to master these small precise things within price action, but we have to understand the basics first, okay? What have we learned so far? We know how to identify a trend, literally higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows.

Okay, there is another way that market trends and this just reminded me of it. It's through consolidation, okay? There's three different ways that market moves, okay? How much are you?

Bluetooth connected Auxiliary Input Or just consolidation, right? Look at this. Within here, right, okay, we see a higher high and then we see a higher low, but right, like this is not a trend. When do we know that market's trending? if it continued higher like this, right? But no. It just stayed like this stat. It was static stagnant. Didn't make a move until boom right here. What happens? Okay, we're making highs with recent before before this break. We were going higher and higher.

Right then we chop it up boom we break we break the floor we break the low we change market structure and you'll you'll understand that when we get to the break structure and market structure portion but we break the low and then what happens okay we have high right here low right here high right here boom market structure shift Right now, what are we in? We're in a downtrend. Okay, so what can we assume that gold's going to do, right?

We came back up here. High, low, lower high, lower low. Lower high, what's next? Probably a lower low targeting this area of liquidity, which we will get into eventually. Right? But again, see how we just, see how I was able to just Take a very simple overarching subject and Literally Like... This is you like this is Some of you could be trading like this and be profitable.

Don't believe me? Fucking try it. Some of you guys can trade this.

Ideally, right, we don't trade this way so we get more optimized entries, right, so we can have tighter stop losses, right, so we can get higher risk-reward trades. But some of you guys can trade like this. If the shit that I trade, if the shit that I teach doesn't make sense to you, you can still do the basics. Okay, you can still do the basics. All right, so There we go. We know how to identify a trend. We know that it shifts momentum within the market. It shifts market structure. And it tells us the direction that market wants to go.

We cannot be caught up. Notice how when I identified that trend, again, that trend is on like the 30 minute. Okay, but it's following... following The daily trend, right? We have boom, high, Lower high. We have a low right here and another lower high and then boom. Lower low. Another lower high, lower low, probably in the process of forming another lower high just to form another lower low, right? The daily is telling us lower, lower, lower, lower, lower.

Perfect. So when we scale down onto a smaller time frame, we can say, okay, where does price want to go? We know on the high time frame it wants to go down. We're on a small time frame. Wouldn't it make sense for us to want to catch, you know, the big massive wave and not these little ticky-tacks to the upside, right? We would want to find something that's going down. Right, to continue that daily trend.

Right, so how are we going to do that? Right? Literally just finding shorts. Finding shorts on a short, on a small timeframe. And we'll get there. We'll get to the point where we can execute. We're not there yet, okay? Because we just started. And hopefully you guys can be patient with this. But trust me, this will benefit you. Because I see so many people. There's a reason why you're losing in these markets, guys.

There's a reason why you're losing every fucking day.

Because you're not taking these basic, simple, very, very important strategies, not even strategies, just concepts. You're throwing them out. You're going completely off of liquidity. Liquidity sweep, break of structure, must enter. There's a liquidity sweep and break of...

I could go on the one minute time frame and find a million liquidity sweeps and breaks of structure. All throughout in here. All in here. All in here. I could do that a million times within this. Right? Some of you guys are entering off of these little ticky tack things and it's like, "No!" No!

That isn't going to get you winning trades. That's not going to get you high probability trades. What do you think is more high probability?

Taking a liquidity sweep and a break of structure off a purely five-minute price action, off a purely a five-minute trend, and maybe like the help and the confluence of the hourly. Or... Understanding where price wants to go long term, maybe on the four hour or the daily at least, right?

Because we're working with intraday price action. At least know where the where where we're going for the day Right, because if you don't know where price wants to go for the day, you're going to lose.

If you cannot understand where price wants to go for that single day and you are trading intraday trades, if most of your trades last a couple hours, if not a couple minutes, you need to know where price wants to go on the day. Okay, and that's where understanding and knowing the trend matters. Okay, you have to be able to understand that. Okay, use your trend to your advantage, okay, when looking for small timeframe trades.

That's what I have written down. Okay, let's see if I missed anything. Where is the market going? We understand that, right? Literally just by reading the trend. And guys, something that really helped me When I was first learning this, look, simplifies the fuck out of it. Where's Marky going? Hi. Hello, hi. Low, higher high, higher low, right? Oh, we get a trend shift, right? High, low. Let me remove this.

Right? We see high, low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, not a lower low. Okay, we push it a little bit higher, continue, right? And when that happens, right, what can we assume? It's just retracement on a higher timeframe. Now what's this? Low, lower high, lower low. Okay, right. We're understanding. Okay, and then boom, right? What happens? I get to push above. Now what?

Higher, higher low, higher high. Big dive. Okay, use the line chart. to your advantage. Okay. If we're looking at the 15, We scale down into this. can tell you, right? Doesn't this look a lot simpler

Okay, make that prediction. Write it down. Please journal this. Write down where you think price is going to go. Choose just one or two pairs. Okay, it can either be the SP500, Gold, GJ, GU, whatever you want. Okay, just identify where you think price wants to go for the week. Okay, and then once you do that, once you identify this is where price wants to go for the week, cool. Once you do that, scale down to daily.

Then say okay, where is price going to go in the next couple days? Because he can make an accurate prediction on the week. What does that mean? You'll be able to be accurate on these lower time frames, you know? Okay, so Where does it want to go in the week? Where is the draw of liquidity? And we'll talk about that sooner or later, okay, eventually, right?

We just need to cover these super simple things first.

Okay, where does price want to go in the week? Where does price want to go in the next couple days? And then, where does price want to go today? Where is price going to go today? And then if you are capable, if you already know my strategy, if you already know how to trade, Draft up a trade based off of those biases and it only has to be just one trade. Okay, right? Where do you think price is going to go for the week?

Perfect. Do you understand that bias? Now, where is price going to go the next couple days? Perfect. Do you understand that bias? Okay, where is price going currently? Where is price going currently, right? Everything on gold says it's going to go down. But currently, price is going up. So what's it giving us an opportunity to do? Find an area in which we can go short. Okay, so we're going to look for an opportunity To predict to project where price wants to go.

I don't even want you to draft up a trade I don't want you to have a stop-loss. I don't even want you to set up this position thing on I literally just want you. To use the forecast tool, drag it from wherever price is at right now and show where price wants to go. Just like that. Just like that. And it's okay if price goes a little bit higher and then fulfills your targets. Okay, because at least you knew where price wanted to go.

Right? The execution will come later. Just like it, first want you. To use the forecast tool, drag it from wherever price is at right now and show where price wants to go. Just like that. Just like that. And it's okay if price goes a little bit high. and then fulfills your targets, okay, because at least you knew where price wanted to go, right? The execution will come later and we'll talk about when we know when price is going to change direction in the market.

But this is a great step and this is a great learning point, okay? Do this on one or two pairs, right? Choose whatever your favorite two pairs are or if you only trade one pair, only do it on that one. If you trade three pairs, only do it on two of them and throw the third one out, okay? You only need to be focused on one or two pairs this entire boot camp. What makes you think you can understand asset classes if you're already losing on 10 of them.

Okay, if you're losing on every single one of them, Wouldn't it make sense for you to try and slow it down, to try and simmer down, right, and try and focus on just one of them first instead of trying to study 10 or 20? It probably would make sense. Okay. I advise you guys to experiment with the line chart to help understand direction, right? Because it's really easy just to scale back. these higher time frames and

Very easy. You don't even have to... Get all up in your head. Where's the ha-ha-ha-ha-loat? Just look, look, where...