Institutional Support and Government Approval Trends

Core Concepts of Institutional Support

Definition of Institutional Support: Support for government institutions is generally divided into two distinct categories: diffuse and specific support.
Diffuse Support: This refers to the support for the institution itself, the overarching idea of democracy, and the fundamental system of government. It represents a long-term commitment to the political system, regardless of who is currently in power.
Specific Support: This refers to support for the particular individuals currently holding office within an institution. Examples include the public's approval or support for the current president, specific members of Congress, or other active political leaders.

Confidence in U.S. Institutions (2015 vs. Historical Averages)

Measurement Metrics: Confidence is measured as the percentage of respondents who report having "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in a given institution. Statistics from a Gallup poll conducted June 2-7, 2015, compared current levels to historical averages dating as far back as $1973$ or $1993$ .
Ranked Confidence Levels (2015 Data): * The Military: Current: $72\%$ . Historical Average: $68\%$ . Difference: $+4$ percentage points. * Small Business: Current: $67\%$ . Historical Average: $63\%$ . Difference: $+4$ percentage points. * The Criminal Justice System: Current: $23\%$ . Historical Average: $24\%$ . Difference: $-1$ percentage point. * The Medical System: Current: $37\%$ . Historical Average: $38\%$ . Difference: $-1$ percentage point. * Organized Labor: Current: $24\%$ . Historical Average: $26\%$ . Difference: $-2$ percentage points. * Big Business: Current: $21\%$ . Historical Average: $24\%$ . Difference: $-3$ percentage points. * The Police: Current: $52\%$ . Historical Average: $57\%$ . Difference: $-5$ percentage points. * Newspapers: Current: $24\%$ . Historical Average: $32\%$ . Difference: $-8$ percentage points. * Television News: Current: $21\%$ . Historical Average: $30\%$ . Difference: $-9$ percentage points. * The Public Schools: Current: $31\%$ . Historical Average: $41\%$ . Difference: $-10$ percentage points. * The Presidency: Current: $33\%$ . Historical Average: $43\%$ . Difference: $-10$ percentage points. * The U.S. Supreme Court: Current: $32\%$ . Historical Average: $44\%$ . Difference: $-12$ percentage points. * Banks: Current: $28\%$ . Historical Average: $40\%$ . Difference: $-12$ percentage points. * The Church or Organized Religion: Current: $42\%$ . Historical Average: $55\%$ . Difference: $-13$ percentage points. * Congress: Current: $8\%$ . Historical Average: $24\%$ . Difference: $-16$ percentage points.

Trends in Government Institutional Confidence

Record Lows in 2014: Confidence in the Executive Branch, Congress, and the Supreme Court reached near-record lows in $2014$ .
Historical Confidence Trends (1973–2013): * The Military has consistently maintained the highest levels of confidence among the measured government sectors. * Confidence in Congress has consistently remained lower than other branches, showing a significant downward trend over the decades. * The Supreme Court and Executive Branch have fluctuated, but both saw sharp declines toward the end of the 2000s and early 2010s.
Institutional Confidence Scale ( $0$ to $3$ ): * A scale mapping confidence from $0.50$ (Some) to $1.00$ (Quite a Lot) to $2.50$ (High) shows: * The Supreme Court typically trends higher than the Executive Branch and Congress, though it is currently in decline. * The President/Executive Branch varies significantly by administration (e.g., Nixon-Ford, Reagan-H.W. Bush, Clinton, G.W. Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden). * Congress sits at the bottom of the scale, often dropping below the "some" confidence threshold of $0.50$ .

Presidential Approval Ratings: Highs and Lows

Historical Peak and Trough Data: * Harry Truman (D): High of $87\%$ (April 1945); Low of $23\%$ (November 1951). * Dwight Eisenhower (R): High of $79\%$ (December 1956); Low of $48\%$ (April 1958). * John F. Kennedy (D): High of $83\%$ (May 1961); Low of $56\%$ (September 1963). * Lyndon Johnson (D): High of $79\%$ (March 1964); Low of $35\%$ (August 1968). * Richard Nixon (R): High of $68\%$ (January 1973); Low of $24\%$ (August 1974). * Gerald Ford (R): High of $71\%$ (August 1974); Low of $37\%$ (March 1975). * Jimmy Carter (D): High of $75\%$ (March 1977); Low of $28\%$ (July 1979). * Ronald Reagan (R): High of $68\%$ (May 1986); Low of $35\%$ (January 1983). * George H.W. Bush (R): High of $89\%$ (March 1991); Low of $29\%$ (August 1992). * Bill Clinton (D): High of $73\%$ (December 1998); Low of $37\%$ (October 1994). * George W. Bush (R): High of $90\%$ (September 2001); Low of $25\%$ (October 2008). * Barack Obama (D): High of $69\%$ (January 2009); Low of $38\%$ (November 2013).

Analysis of Support Factors and Polarization

Sources of Presidential Approval: * Party Identification: The primary filter through which citizens view the president. * The Economy: This includes the objective state of the economy (GDP, unemployment) and subjective perceptions. * Sociotropic vs. Pocketbook: Sociotropic refers to the evaluation of the national economy as a whole; Pocketbook refers to the evaluation of one's personal financial situation. * Prospective vs. Retrospective: Prospective evaluations look toward future economic expectations; Retrospective evaluations look at past economic performance. * Honeymoon Effects: The brief period of high approval immediately following an inauguration. * Rally-Round-The-Flag Effects: Surges in approval during international crises or wars (e.g., G.W. Bush following the $9/11$ attacks). * Presidential Scandals: Negative events that diminish public trust.
Polarization in Approval: Since $1950$ , there has been an increasing gap between Republican and Democratic approval of the president. Independents generally fall in the middle but track with the overall trends.
Consequences of Approval - "Going Public" (Kernell): * Presidents increasingly bypass traditional pluralist bargaining with politicians and "go public." * This involves making direct appeals to the electorate to pressure Congress into passing the president's legislative agenda. * Constraints on Going Public: The effectiveness of this strategy is limited by the president's outsider status, current levels of popularity, and their record of past success or failure.

Congressional and Supreme Court Approval

Congressional Approval Trends: Congressional job approval has reached historic lows, often dipping into the single digits (e.g., $8\%$ in $2015$ ).
The Individual vs. The Institution: While approval for Congress as an institution is very low, approval for the respondent's own member of Congress is significantly higher. * May 2013: Institutional Congress approval was very low, but approval for the local representative was $46\%$ . * Historical High: In August 1990, approval for the local representative reached $66\%$ .
Sources of Congressional Approval: * Party Identification and Subjective Economic Perceptions (Sociotropic vs. Pocketbook; Prospective vs. Retrospective). * Congressional Scandals: Historical examples include the House banking scandal, ABSCAM, and the resignation of Speaker Jim Wright. * Legislative Activity: Public approval react to veto overrides, intra-Congress conflict (gridlock), and the passage of major pieces of legislation.
Supreme Court Approval: Approval has historically been higher than the other branches but has faced increased polarization. * Approval dropped from the high $60$ \text{s} in the early 2000s to around $42\%$ in $2022$ . * Partisan Polarization in the Court: Reactions to the Court are increasingly split by party ID, influenced by landmark cases/events such as Bush v. Gore, the election of Barack Obama, the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and the Hobby Lobby decision. * By $2014$ , Democratic approval of the Supreme Court was drastically lower ( $44\%$ ) than Republican approval ( $51\%$ ), though these numbers shift depending on the ideological direction of the Court's rulings.