Lecture 14, March 10th: Fragile States: The Case of Iraq

Iraq: Vital facts

• Population: 44 million (2024)

• 1932: Independence from Britain

• 4th-largest oil exporter in the world

Origins of State Weakness: Iraq

• 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement: As the Ottoman Empire fell, the UK and France made a secret pact to carve up their respective spheres of influence in the Middle East

• Russians removed from equation after 1917 revolution

• 1920: Iraq (Mesopotamia) assigned as a British Protectorate, then British had colonial/political control over Iraq

Middle East, 1920

• Russian & Italian spheres of infleunce changed

• French and British both have significant control

• Italian colonies

• Various independent countries by 1920, most natably Libya & Turkeye

Iraqi revolt, 1920

• Iraqis angered by British control, Iraqis revolted across Iraq

• British forces put down the revolt only with great difficulty

• British forces relied on aerial bombardment (rare commodity at the time) to suppress uprisings

• When you consider Iraqi invasion then war in 1991 and 1993, interesting to look at historical parallels

Iraq: Independence into the Cold War

• 1932: Iraq gains independence: Britain retains military bases, advisory role Iraq: Independence into the Cold War, independence was very partial

• 1958: Military coup overthrows Western and British aligned monarchy, installs secular Arab Nationalist government to promote Arab rule

• 1960-75: Iraqi government wages war against separatist Kurdish population in northern Iraq • 1963, 1968: Successive coups d’etat, at same time Iraq is gaining financially from its oil

Iraq under Saddam Hussein

• Hussein seized power in 1979 and ruled till US forces overthrew him in 2003; one of the most brutal leaders in the region’s history Iraq under Saddam Hussein

• Under Hussein, Iraq was a “hard state” and a “fierce state” but not a strong state (Nazih Ayubi, 1995) (Ruthlessly hunted down opponents, especially domestic, the violence that teh Iraqi state displayed under Hussein was an indicator of the state’s weakness. Violence was needed in order to control state. His state lacked popular legitimacy

• Hussein excluded rivals; promoted communal, ethnic, and interreligious mistrust (promoting his own tribe, the Al-Takritis, and playing others off against each other) ; developed patronage networks; and crushed dissent

• Many sectors of society opposed Hussein’s regime

• The Iraqi state was very powerful in terms of monopoly over the use of force, but lacked popular legitimacy

• The people who suffered the most under Sadam Hussein were Iraqis, even though Iraqis get blamed for the war

Internal and external conflicts

• With arbitrarily-drawn borders, Iraq has had separatist ethno-regional elements seeking independence (Kurds) or aligning with foreign powers (Iran) Internal and external conflicts

• 1960s-2003: Iraq waged a protracted low intensity war vs. Kurds

• 1980-88: Saddam Hussein launches extremely long and bloody war with Iran, he thought he’d win quickly along w oil wealth, but Iraq lost in a bloody war with Iran, and no one wanted to give up

• Saddam launched a military invasion of Kuwait in 1990

• External powers led by US fought large-scale wars against Iraq in 1990-1 (Operation Desert Storm) and 2003 (Operation Iraqi Freedom)

Iraq’s Population

• Historically, Iraqi Sunni and Shi’a Muslims got along well and intermarried, 2 major groups in Iraq, as well there are Christian Iraqis

• But Saddam Hussein played different groups against each other to reinforce his own control

• Hussein’s regime killed over 200,000 Iraqi citizens

• Iran-Iraq war killed 1 million people

• 2003 US-UK invasion and violent aftermath killed untold thousands of Iraqis

• Almost 50% of Iraqis are under 19 which means large population of people looking for jobs and stability and without it they are easy to mobilize into malisias and violent gangs; between 55% and 65% are women, because so many men were killed in the war

• Power in Iraq had historically been shared between ethnocultural groups of Iraq before Hussein

Post-invasion Iraq

• March 2003: US and UK invade Iraq on the pretext of stopping Hussein’s support for Post-invasion Iraq terrorism (post 9/11) and building weapons of mass destruction, claims which have been discredited

• During the invasion, thousands of Iraqis were murdered by the US & UK, yet the US is viewed as a hero in this situation in the West

• There can be no stabilizing a peaceful democratic future through forceful violent methods

• Iraqis were not supportive of Al Qaeda

• Under US occupation, Iraq became a democracy with multiparty elections and a constitution, but few Iraqis regard the new government as legitimate

1 May 2003: Bush declares end of “major combat operations” in “Mission Accomplished” speech aboard USS Abraham Lincoln

Outcomes of invasion

• The Iraqi state has since been paralyzed by extreme corruption and deep sectarian divisions; key features of Iraqi politics

• Transparency international ranked Iraq the most corrupt country on Earth

• Iraqi economy has stagnated; malnutrition and food insecurity have increased; health services have deteriorated

• In 2014, the US-trained Iraqi army was rapidly defeated by the much smaller Islamic State (ISIS) forces due to lack of cohesion and motivation

Non-State Actor: Islamic State In Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

• Founded 2006 in US-occupied Iraq

• Captured extensive territory in Iraq and Syria since 2014

• Weakened states, porous borders have enabled militants to move freely •Religious divisions (between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims) have contributed to conflict

• ISIS established Caliphate in areas under its control, collected taxrevenue, provided infrastructure, enforced laws

Maximal Area Under ISIS Control (2014-5)

• Peak of Isis in terms of territory controled was 2014-15

• Fought against multiple countries, some whom were fighting against eachother but who all wanted the same goal of breaking down ISIS

Iraq: Who Controls What?

• Iraqi gov controls most

• North West some ISIS

• North East some Kurdish

The meaning of Iraqi democracy

• Despite successive free-and-fair elections, Iraq remains plagued by chronic political violence • Despite getting the franchise, Iraqi women are in many ways worse off than in Hussein’s time • Growing insecurity targets women disproportionately, and they have withdrawn from the social and economic spheres

Women also have very little political representation