Scenario Method Overview

The basic scenario process follows a structured, multi-stage method for developing scenarios focused on the future.
Developed by various writers (e.g. Schwartz, 1991) and organizations (e.g. GBN, SRI International).
Emphasizes 'intuitive logics' and involves exploring multiple scenarios rather than a singular ideal future.

Multiple Scenarios: This method enables the exploration of various potential futures based on known and plausible information.
Structured Process: A structured approach helps participants navigate complexities and uncertainties in discussions.
Diverse Applications: Can be employed in different organizational contexts and over various timescales, from hours to months.

Setting the Agenda: Define the key issue and the timeframe for the scenarios to explore.
Determining Driving Forces: Identify key external forces shaping the context (political, economic, social, technological, ecological, legal - PESTEL).
Clustering Driving Forces: Group related driving forces to understand their interconnections and impacts.
Defining Cluster Outcomes: Establish extreme yet plausible outcomes for each cluster of driving forces.
Impact/Uncertainty Matrix: Assess the significance and uncertainty of identified factors, leading to the selection of key scenario drivers.
Framing Scenarios: Define the bounds of scenarios based on the selected key factors' outcomes.
Scoping Scenarios: Develop a broader set of descriptors for the four scenarios generated based on the interactions of the key factors.
Developing Scenarios: Create detailed narratives that explain the progression from the current state to the defined future scenarios.

Creative Thinking: Aim to expand contemplation of all possibilities rather than narrow options.
Structured Approach: Maintain a balance between creativity and structured processes to avoid chaos.
Inclusive Participation: Encourage contributions from all participants to enrich scenario development.
Adaptability: Flexibly adjust processes and stages to meet participant and project needs.

Use a 'round robin' discussion format for sharing ideas to ensure all voices are heard.
Limit discussion to clarifying questions initially, avoiding any judgment on ideas.
Foster an environment where disagreement is acceptable and encouraged for robust outcomes.

Conduct initial readings related to focal themes prior to workshops.
Engage stakeholders through interviews to gather diverse viewpoints and guide scenario discussions.
Collect data through content analysis to distill themes from stakeholder interviews into a coherent document that informs the initial session.

Scenarios are not predictions but explorations of potential futures that aid in strategic decision-making.
They highlight opportunities and threats within the external environment, guiding organizations in planning and resource allocation.
Facilitate understanding of complex interdependencies and can be used as tools for testing current strategies against various scenarios.

Scenario thinking is a fundamental practice, useful for navigating uncertainties and preparing for diverse future outcomes.
Active participation and a structured approach are key to successful scenario development, leading to better-informed strategic decisions.