Notes on Technological Change Theories

Technological Change Theories

  • Purpose of the Discussion

    • Explore who, what, where, why, when, and how changes occur in technology.

  • Historical Context

    • Notable Quotes:
    • 1903: New York Times editorial predicting flying machines may evolve in a million to ten million years.
    • 1943: Thomas Watson of IBM predicting a market for only five computers.
    • Rapid Technological Advances:
    • 20th Century saw monumental changes in technology influencing all aspects of human life.
    • Changes have accelerated significantly in recent decades compared to historical progress over 250,000 years.

Cultural and Technological Evolution

  • The Culture Matrix:

    • Historical context of technological changes over cultural epochs (e.g., Medieval to Modern).

  • Key Eras and Characteristics:

    • Medieval (1400s):
    • Energy sources: Muscle power, wind, water.
    • Communication: Oral traditions, early written accounts.
    • Social Structures: Extended families, tribes under monarchies.
    • Modern Era:
    • Shift to coal, steam, and electricity.
    • Communication revolutionized with technological advances (telegraph, telephone, internet).
    • Social structures evolve towards capitalism and multinational enterprise.

Technological Change Definition

  • Concept:
    • Invention, innovation, and diffusion of technologies and processes.
    • Continuous improvement, commercialization, and the societal impact of technology.
    • The Induced Technological Change Hypothesis:
    • Policymakers can influence technological advances by adjusting factor prices, e.g., climate policies making fossil fuels more expensive.

The Evolution of Flight

  • Wright Brothers:
    • Credited with the first controlled flight in 1903.
    • Significance: The rapid transition from initial flight (Wright Brothers) to landing on the Moon (Neil Armstrong) in less than 60 years exemplifies radical technological advancement.

Major Revolutions Shaping Understanding

  • The Four Major Revolutions:
    1. Copernican Revolution:
    • Shifted the understanding of the universe's structure.
    1. Darwinian Revolution:
    • Proposed evolution and natural selection.
    1. Freudian Revolution:
    • Understanding human psyche and behavior.
    1. Digital Revolution:
    • Recent technological advancements significantly alter perceptions of the self and interactions with the world.

Theories of Technological Change

  • Technological Determinism vs. Social Determinism:
    • Technology shapes society versus society's needs shape technology.

Instrumentalism

  • Technology as a neutral tool; its ethical use is determined by human intentions.

Substantivism

  • Technology creates and controls social orders and relationships based on its inherent qualities.

Critical Theory

  • Emphasizes the interplay of political and social factors in technology governance, highlighting the need for a participatory approach to technological development.

Marshall McLuhan’s Media Theory

  • Four Ages of Media:

    1. Tribal Age: Oral communication, acoustic space.
    2. Age of Literacy: Visual communication through writing and reasoning.
    3. Print Age: Print media dominance, linear thinking.
    4. Electronic Age: Rise of multi-sensory technologies, e.g. TV, computers.

  • Tetrad of Media Effects:

    • Questions impact of new technology:
    1. What does it enhance?
    2. What does it make obsolete?
    3. What does it retrieve?
    4. What does it reverse into when fully developed?

Brian Winston’s Change Modeling

  • Performance vs. Competence:

    • Distinction between what science can explain (competence) and what technology can achieve (performance).

  • Concepts in Technological Adoption:

    • Supervening Social Necessity: Factors driving innovation and adoption.
    • Suppression of Radical Potential: Barriers to the implementation of revolutionary technologies.

  • Institutional and Social Implications:

    • Economic, social, and political dynamics determine technology's path to viability in the market.

Conclusion and Future Considerations

  • Questions regarding humanity's identity in the context of advanced technologies and the future governance of AI development remain crucial.

  • Notable Readings:

    • Digital technologies reshape global society; the shift necessitates awareness of its broader implications.