Elections: Part 2

Presidential Campaigns and Elections

Goals of a Presidential Campaign

  • Objective 1: Amass enough delegates to secure a party’s nomination at the national party convention.

  • Objective 2: Win enough states in the general election to garner at least 270 of the 538 available Electoral College votes, thus winning the presidency.

  • Problematic Aspect: These two goals can sometimes be incompatible, creating strategic dilemmas for candidates.

State Rules Governing Primaries and Caucuses

Four different kinds of state rules governing primaries and caucuses include:

  1. Ballot Access Requirements: Rules that define how candidates can get on the ballot.

  2. Allocation of Delegates:

    • Winner-Take-All or Proportional Allocation: Determines how delegates are awarded based on primary or caucus results.

  3. Voting Rules for Delegates:

    • Pledged or Not Pledged: Defines whether delegates must vote for a specific candidate or have the freedom to choose.

  4. Order of Primaries: The sequence in which states hold their primary elections can greatly impact candidate momentum.

Primaries and Caucuses

  • Determine which candidates the state party will send to represent them at the national party nominating convention.

  • Representatives chosen for this purpose are known as Delegates.

  • Delegates are accumulated by candidates through various statewide elections, each with distinct rules, over a period of several months.

Caucuses

  • Definition: Registered party members attend meetings in election precinct locations and vote to choose delegates for county or state party conventions.

  • Characteristics:

    • Typically, delegates chosen are pledged.

    • Some delegates, not pledged, usually help resolve tie situations.

    • National convention delegates are selected during the state convention.

  • Example of Early Caucus: Iowa Caucus marks the first contest in the presidential nomination process.

Primary Elections

  • Definition: More prevalent method for delegate selection than caucuses.

  • Process: Voters visit the polls on Election Day (or earlier for early voting) and cast their votes for their preferred candidate.

  • Characteristics:

    • In contrast to caucuses, voters do not participate in discussions; they simply vote and leave.

    • Participation rates are generally higher in primary elections due to their less time-consuming nature.

Types of Primary Elections

  1. Closed Primary:

    • Only registered party members can vote in their party’s primary.

    • Tends to lead to ideologically extreme candidates in general elections.

  2. Open Primary:

    • Any registered voter can vote in any one party's primary.

    • Although partisans can vote in the opposing party's primary, it occurs infrequently.

    • Independents can participate, which encourages more moderate candidates to emerge in general elections.

  3. Semi-Open Primary:

    • Only occurs in states allowing runoff elections if no candidate receives a majority (50% +1).

    • Voters can participate in the primary of their choice, but only those who voted in the initial primary can vote in the runoff.

  4. Semi-Closed Primary:

    • Primarily for party members, with an option for voters to change their affiliation on primary Election Day.

Uncommon Primary System

  • Top Two Primary:

    • Utilized in CA, WA, and nonpartisan elections in NE, where all candidates appear on a single primary ballot.

    • Voters can select one candidate per office and may choose candidates from different parties.

    • The top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Delegate Allocation

  • The Democratic Party employs a proportional representation system for delegate allocation.

    • A candidate must achieve at least 15% of the vote in a particular contest to receive delegates.

    • Notable party members are referred to as super delegates, who cannot vote in the first round at the national convention.

  • The Republican Party utilizes a combination of proportional allocation, winner-take-all methods, and hybrids depending on state-specific regulations.

Importance of Early Primaries

  • Early primary contests significantly influence candidate nomination by signaling candidate viability.

  • Establishes a ’front-runner.’

  • Candidates who win early primaries often gain increased media exposure and campaign contributions.

  • However, these candidates also undergo intensified scrutiny.

  • Frontloading: States attempt to schedule primaries earlier to maximize their influence on the nomination process.

Effects of Super Tuesday

  • The trend of states positioning their primaries for the same day leads to "Super Tuesday" scenarios.

  • Candidates must assess whether they can adequately gather resources to compete across multiple states on the same day.

  • Candidates who accumulate at least $5000 in donations of $250 or less from across 20 states may qualify for public funding via the Federal Elections Commission, with associated spending limitations.

Strategies for Choosing a Running Mate

  1. Compensatory Expertise: Select someone knowledgeable who counterbalances the presidential candidate's weaknesses.

  2. Geographic Appeal: Choose a running mate capable of securing votes from crucial states or regions.

  3. Demographic Support: Select candidates from particular political or demographic groups to strengthen appeal.

  4. Healing Divisions: Pick running mates to mend internal party divides.

  5. Image Reinforcement: Choose a candidate who enhances the overall image of the primary candidate.

The National Nominating Convention

  • Since 1972, conventions have become grand events featuring:

    • Development of the party platform.

    • Rallying of the party around the pre-selected candidate.

    • Presentation of the nominee to the nation.

    • Projection of a vision for America.

  • The opposition party conducts its convention first to maximize exposure.

  • Convention Effects: Typically leads to a "convention bump" of around 6 points in public opinion polls.

The General Election

  • The general election campaign formally commences post-national party conventions.

  • Presidential campaigns strategically target the Electoral College to secure a majority.

The Electoral College

  • Total of 538 electors in the Electoral College.

  • State electors are allocated according to House of Representatives membership plus two Senators per state.

  • The 23rd amendment grants an additional three electors to the District of Columbia.

  • A minimum of 270 electoral votes are required to win the Electoral College.

Allocation of Electoral Votes

  • Most states assign all their electoral college votes to the statewide popular vote winner.

  • Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska allocate two electors based on statewide votes and distribute others according to congressional district wins.

Controversies Surrounding the Electoral College

  • Disproportionate Weight: Smaller states have an inflated influence because each state has a minimum of three electoral votes, regardless of population.

  • The total of 538 electors limits proportional representations; thus, larger states do not receive a fair number of electors.

  • The Electoral College tends to favor Republican candidates in certain battleground states, while Democrats carry larger, but less strategically significant states (e.g., CA, NY, IL, known for inefficient distribution).

Calls for Reforming the Electoral College

  • Reform is politically polarized; more Democrats favor altering the Electoral College compared to Republicans.

  • Proposals include entirely abandoning the Electoral College for a pure popular vote system, which would necessitate a constitutional amendment and potentially undermine federalist structures.

  • National Popular Vote: Legislation has been enacted in 15 states, equating to 195 electoral votes, agreeing to allocate their electoral votes according to the overall national popular vote winner.

    • This plan will only take effect when states representing the majority of electoral votes sign on.

National Bonus Plan

  • Would require a constitutional amendment to introduce an additional 100 electoral votes for a candidate winning the popular vote.

  • This plan aims to minimize the risks of 'faithless electors' altering election outcomes in narrow contests and ensuring that the popular vote victor secures the Electoral College outcome.

  • Proposes allocating electoral votes by congressional district rather than using winner-take-all.

    • States can decide their method of electoral vote allocation, similar to Maine and Nebraska's current approach where candidates may gain individual electoral votes by securing congressional district majorities. The statewide winner receives two additional electoral votes.

Factors Impacting Presidential Election Outcomes

  1. Incumbency:

    • Roughly 2/3 of incumbent presidents typically win reelection.

    • Advantages stem from experienced governance, the encompassing advantages of presidential prestige, and assured party nomination.

  2. War:

    • Initial rally around the flag mentalities often support presidents during conflict onset.

    • Prolonged conflicts usually diminish support and adversely affect the incumbent’s popularity.

  3. The Economy:

    • The state of the economy heavily influences electoral outcomes and candidate favorability.