June 17th Market Analysis and Trading Strategies
Market Overview and News (June 17, 9 AM ET)
FOMC announcement is scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM with a press conference at 2:30 PM.
Economic news scheduled for today includes:
Retail sales and export prices at 8:30 AM.
Industrial production at 9:15 AM.
Business inventories and housing market at 10 AM.
Trade deal talks with Canada and geopolitical issues in the Middle East may increase market volatility, including ongoing war.
Market Analysis
Monday's opening showed follow-through buying from overnight Sunday into Asia, London, and then the U.S. session.
A broad bear channel transitioned into a trading range, with rejection at the top.
A tight bull channel formed with about 12-13 bars, but momentum waned as bar sizes decreased at the top, indicating a potential trading range.
The market gapped up by 20+ bars, leading to sideways trading to determine the next direction.
An area marked at the top of the trading range was identified as a sell zone, considering Friday's sell-off and potentially stuck bears.
Price Levels and Bearish Scenarios
The current average price is around , approximately 10 points below a key level.
Bears aim to bring the market down to the moving average.
A bearish day would involve a bear body closing definitely below the close of a bear doji, closer to the low (or lower).
Target line for bears is projected, requiring a close below a specific high to sell into that target area. A wedge pattern is possible.
To confirm a bearish move, price needs to move underneath, retest, and then decline, with potential targets at lower levels.
Bullish Perspective
Bulls need to see a bar failing to move underneath certain levels to indicate buying strength.
If the market holds, it could lead to another trading range trading pattern with an opening around . Testing trading range lows would be expected.
A failure to close the entire gap around could lead to a reversal back up to higher levels.
Gaps do tend to close within trading ranges.
Hourly and Weekly Analysis
The market is below last week's range on the hourly chart (RTA chart).
Last week's range is a key area to monitor for contract sizes; failure to break out indicates sellers in this trading range wanting to bring the market down.
Potential buying area around 5,125 or lower, representing discount buying.
Bull/Bear Flags and Measured Moves
If a bull flag fails, it could lead to a measured move within the range, potentially heading towards a specific area.
Selling is expected in the morning, with attention to how the market handles the gap area.
The area could become resistance, indicating that the market is essentially stuck in a trading range.
After-Hours Market Analysis
Tim Stout's prediction of a move down to bar one lows materialized after hours.
Failure of bulls to buy led to a failed flag and a move down to the breakout point.
A brief bounce occurred after selling, but the situation evolved into a bear flag.
Sell stop orders underneath the bar, or limit orders above, could have been used.
Targets for bears were 1R or 2R down, or a breakout pullback.
Technical Formations and Strategies
A double top pattern or a lower high could lead to a neckline breakout and a measured move.
Bears are expected to take profit at the lows, given the presence of support.
Since the market crossed below the VWAP, strong selling is expected upon return to the VWAP.
If the neckline wasn't broken with a bear body, the flag is considered weak.
A large outside up bar signals the need to exit selling positions.
Target Lines and Market Reversal
Target lines indicate potential areas of interest; bears may attempt to swing but failure suggests a shallow move and potential takeover by bulls.
Bulls are looking for a higher low to reverse the market upwards.
Bears need to continue their downward momentum to maintain control.
The 66% level was noted, with potential for a reverse back up to the midpoint and higher if bears are unable to continue the downward momentum.
Trading Scenarios
Break-even for bears occurred after hours; a bullish reversal could lead to magnetizing toward yesterday's high.
If selling is strong, the first pullback could offer selling opportunities, with targets at the moving average and 6,000 area (round number magnet).
Yesterday's sideways movement suggests a potential similar pattern; however, after-hours activity has altered the dynamics.
Additional Technical Analysis
A double bottom was formed, and a neckline is being tested; position below a key level on the Globex.
If bulls gain strength above the key level (Mid Asia), targets include the Globex High and higher areas.
Resistance identified with wicks aligning, while buyers exist underneath.
Invalidation of channel sell occurs when bulls start to close above it.
Pre-Market Analysis and Opening Strategy
Bulls need strong bull bars and closes above the one-hour EMA to pull the five-minute EMA along.
A wedge top may form, pulling back, but the area could act as support.
If selling continues, the speaker will assess the gap area and potential bounce back, treating the area as resistance.
After-hours market analysis indicated potential for a move down to bar one lows and a bounce at the breakout point.
Mention of cup formation with handle and potential testing after the opening bell
Market Open and Initial Observations
Price opened near the predicted area (around a specific bar), offering bears a breakeven opportunity.
Market needs to demonstrate its intended path. A bearish turn in the first or second hour could make the daily bar bearish.
Critical zone on Gullabanx identified as a double top neckline sell; failure of bulls could lead to a revisit of the double bottom, with stops under equal lows.
Bulls want to hold gaps open and aim at new highs; bears want to close all gaps, aiming for Friday's close. Too early for definitive judgment.
Additional Notes
Hourly RTH five minutes are above the one-hour EMA. This means buyers might show up, and price could move back up to these levels.
Consecutive bear bars closing will drag the five-minute EMA downward into a crossover. Then we could see a lot of bear bars closing into the area of interest.
Short Term Targets
If the market becomes bearish the target is going to be $6058.25$. The target will also be the open of the bear bar, and the close of that bear bar, which is $3975$.
Snags. This area becomes support and could have two bottoms reversed. Bulls opening for the week, and today's open. They could move below it if bearish.
Opening of the week is more than today's open. Need to assess the closing location on where this bar closes.
Trading with a wedge. There could be a reversal or a double top.
Action Plan
Small trading range. So, bulls can enter at closing and aim towards breaking even.
Look for more than five reversals that could lead to a more sustained swing up or down.
ATR
*Current ATR indicating $20$ minimum swing.
*This means you should scale your orders, and if a breakout happens, it would lead into the $20$ mark.
Bar is at the neckline right now in a bear flag position.
Bulls need a bull bar to overtake it with a bullish trend set up.
Bears are owning the auction to continue down.
Bulls need a better body. If you are not seeing the clue in the market then need to go analysis the action.
Observations
The most recent bar is the strongest with momentum.
The target is going to be closed. Remember if the bar is extended they'll try to do average prices.
The wick size is too high, so not reliable. It only tells a story. Remember to measure range with bodies.
Trading Time
Always trade five or more reversals before swing up or down is set up.
After testing is over, then you can scale into the market for swings either up or down. If you have the momentum there.
News
News is causing the push and pull now.
Key Metrics
It needs to fall down this area to know. Market is trying to get a new high.
If you baught you already have scap.
If you are too slow you can still make a breakout.
Good momentum to look, and be cautious.
Watch this if is not shallow. Expect heavy buy and pushback into the area.
Bear and bulls are trying to get you out from different entries.
There is a trading range in the action.
Final Conclusion
*A lot of trades are still going to be getting break even trades.
*They haven't committed yet, and want to see how it all plays out at this moment.*
Breakpoints
Need to go around bar one. Remember if it gets the double top and rejects then will need to retest the lows again. But market has a lot of buyers.
This high could be 73 50, and high level 74 to 74 50.
A lot of buyers are wanting to bring up again. They need to continue to close, and get above the 74 area.
There are bears but are not getting anything there needs to be more bullish. See it more often.
But we need some better momentum is needed to reach it.
If buy above is above or the close and open of open three. The problem here, the set-up can work can break even.
If it goes over the middle great.
We are below bar 2.
After ATR scalping then can swing to $20$ swing. If you scalp nine to ten. This means you might need to reduce before it swings or retest.
Is like, the 1, 2, 3 push target for bear selling here? There might be more sellers than buyers and if the trade plays out you can sell now.
This is where they are getting trapped. 8:32
In the one and two many bars they made all the new sales is needed to lead. I need to see is below 3
Remember that some buyers below bar one. If the bulls close, then that means those are still in play.
Right now, in the testing the critical period. What happens it starts to move then down for this high.
Not a big green candle so be warey what's happening.
This might actually not work there are only one bar, so might be two pullbacks is better option here what is called for.
Remember: Two ATR IS FIVE AND TEN
4 pull bucks they did get. Then you restrategize from three
Look at 75 and 76 area as target is being created.
These are reversal in this area.
Remember, machines are trading bots with a 20 points with a stop underneath for a two hour win.
Market Analysis into Final Hour
If you can scale high, look what had. Then buy lower to get a the money. That's what happened.
You can check that out for this and how I managed.
Bear also have been trying and didn't go to have a lot through and Bulls bought and also. Made a lot of money.
Three bars and four momentum the targets.
The red like with bars on this you know what's the target. Make 1.R and more than two
Most markets might smart.
There are probably buyers getting more and more to continue.
A stop is placed to look better. There are bull bar they keep making for denied.
Market Overview and News (June 17, 9 AM ET)
FOMC Announcement: Scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This event is crucial as it provides insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
Economic News Today:
Retail Sales and Export Prices: Released at 8:30 AM ET, these figures indicate consumer spending and international trade dynamics.
Industrial Production: Announced at 9:15 AM ET, reflecting the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.
Business Inventories and Housing Market: Data released at 10 AM ET, offering insights into inventory levels and the real estate market.
Geopolitical and Trade Factors:
Trade Deal Talks: Ongoing discussions with Canada and their potential impact on market sentiment.
Middle East Geopolitical Issues: Continued war and regional tensions that may heighten market volatility.
Market Analysis
Market Opening: Monday's session began with sustained buying interest that originated from overnight trading in Asia and London, carrying into the U.S. session.
Channel Transition: The market transitioned from a broad bear channel into a trading range, facing rejection at the upper boundaries of this range.
Bull Channel Formation: A tight bull channel formed, characterized by approximately 12-13 bars. However, upward momentum diminished as bar sizes decreased near the top, suggesting a potential shift to a trading range.
Gap Up: The market opened with a significant gap of over 20 bars, leading to a period of sideways trading as participants assessed the next market direction.
Sell Zone: The area at the top of the trading range was identified as a potential sell zone, influenced by Friday's sell-off and the presence of potentially trapped bearish positions.
Price Levels and Bearish Scenarios
Current Average Price: Approximately , situated about 10 points below a key level, indicating a critical juncture for price action.
Bearish Objective: Bears are aiming to drive the market down to the moving average, a common technical objective.
Bearish Day Confirmation: A bearish day is confirmed if a bear body closes definitively below the close of a bear doji, ideally closer to the low or even lower.
Target Line for Bears: A specific target line is projected, contingent on a close below a specific high, which would trigger selling into that target area. A wedge pattern may also emerge.
Bearish Move Confirmation: To validate a continued bearish move, the price must move underneath, retest the level, and then decline further, setting potential targets at lower levels.
Bullish Perspective
Bullish Signal: Bulls need to observe a bar failing to move underneath certain support levels to signal renewed buying strength.
Trading Range Scenario: If the market maintains its position, it could lead to another trading range pattern with an opening around , with expected testing of trading range lows.
Gap Closure Failure: Failure to close the entire gap around could trigger a reversal back up to higher levels, with gaps tending to close within trading ranges.
Hourly and Weekly Analysis
Hourly Chart: The market is currently trading below last week's range on the hourly chart (RTA chart), a critical area for monitoring contract sizes.
Key Range: Last week's range is essential; failure to break out suggests sellers in this trading range are aiming to push the market down.
Potential Buying Area: The area around 5,125 or lower is viewed as a potential discount buying zone.
Bull/Bear Flags and Measured Moves
Bull Flag Failure: If a bull flag fails, it could lead to a measured move within the range, potentially heading towards a specific target area.
Expected Selling: Selling activity is anticipated in the morning session, with close attention to how the market responds to the gap area, which could turn into resistance, trapping the market in a trading range.
After-Hours Market Analysis
Stout's Prediction: Tim Stout's prediction of a move down to bar one lows materialized in after-hours trading.
Failed Flag: The failure of bulls to sustain buying interest led to a failed flag and a subsequent move down to the breakout point.
Bear Flag: A brief bounce followed the selling pressure, but the situation evolved into a bear flag formation.
Order Placement: Sell stop orders underneath the bar or limit orders above could have been strategically used.
Bear Targets: Bears aimed for targets at 1R or 2R down, or a breakout pullback scenario.
Technical Formations and Strategies
Double Top/Lower High: A double top pattern or a lower high could lead to a neckline breakout and a measured move, providing potential trading signals.
Bear Profit-Taking: Bears are likely to take profit at the lows, considering the presence of support in that area.
VWAP Selling: Since the market crossed below the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), strong selling is expected upon any return to the VWAP.
Weak Flag: The flag pattern is deemed weak if the neckline wasn't broken with a bear body.
Outside Up Bar: A large outside up bar signals the need to exit selling positions, indicating potential bullish reversal.
Target Lines and Market Reversal
Target Line Dynamics: Target lines indicate potential areas of interest; bears may attempt to swing but failure suggests a shallow move and potential takeover by bulls.
Bullish Reversal: Bulls are looking for a higher low to reverse the market upwards, regaining control over the trend.
Bearish Control: Bears need to continue their downward momentum to maintain control of the market.
66% Level: The 66% level was noted, with potential for a reverse back up to the midpoint and higher if bears are unable to continue the downward momentum.
Trading Scenarios
Bear Break-Even: Break-even for bears occurred after hours; a bullish reversal could lead to magnetizing toward yesterday's high.
Selling Opportunities: If selling is strong, the first pullback could offer selling opportunities, with targets at the moving average and the 6,000 area (a round number magnet).
Sideways Movement: Yesterday's sideways movement suggests a potential similar pattern, although after-hours activity has altered the dynamics.
Additional Technical Analysis
Double Bottom: A double bottom was formed, and a neckline is being tested; position below a key level on the Globex.
Bullish Targets: If bulls gain strength above the key level (Mid Asia), targets include the Globex High and higher areas.
Resistance and Support: Resistance is identified with wicks aligning, while buyers exist underneath, providing support.
Channel Invalidation: Invalidation of channel sell occurs when bulls start to close above it, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
Pre-Market Analysis and Opening Strategy
Bullish Conditions: Bulls need strong bull bars and closes above the one-hour EMA to pull the five-minute EMA along, indicating sustained buying pressure.
Wedge Top: A wedge top may form, pulling back, but the area could act as support, presenting potential buying opportunities.
Continued Selling: If selling continues, the speaker will assess the gap area and potential bounce back, treating the area as resistance.
After-Hours: After-hours market analysis indicated potential for a move down to bar one lows and a bounce at the breakout point.
Cup Formation: Mention of cup formation with handle and potential testing after the opening bell, a bullish pattern.
Market Open and Initial Observations
Opening Price: Price opened near the predicted area (around a specific bar), offering bears a breakeven opportunity.
Market Direction: Market needs to clearly demonstrate its intended path. A bearish turn in the first or second hour could make the daily bar bearish.
Critical Zone: Critical zone on Gullabanx identified as a double top neckline sell; failure of bulls could lead to a revisit of the double bottom, with stops under equal lows.
Bullish and Bearish Aims: Bulls want to hold gaps open and aim at new highs; bears want to close all gaps, aiming for Friday's close. It's too early for definitive judgment.
Additional Notes
Hourly RTH: Hourly Regular Trading Hours (RTH) five minutes are above the one-hour EMA. This means buyers might show up, and price could move back up to these levels.
Bear Bar Closures: Consecutive bear bars closing will drag the five-minute EMA downward into a crossover, potentially leading to more bear bars closing into the area of interest.
Short Term Targets
Bearish Target: If the market becomes bearish, the target is going to be $6058.25. The target will also be the open of the bear bar and the close of that bear bar, which is .
Snags: This area becomes support and could have two bottoms reversed. Bulls opening for the week, and today's open. They could move below it if bearish.
Opening Analysis: The opening of the week is higher than today's open. Need to assess the closing location on where this bar closes.
Wedge Trading: Trading with a wedge implies there could be a reversal or a double top.
Action Plan
Trading Range Strategy: Due to the small trading range, bulls can enter at closing and aim towards breaking even.
Reversal Signals: Look for more than five reversals that could lead to a more sustained swing up or down.
ATR
Current ATR: Current Average True Range (ATR) indicates minimum swing, implying traders should scale their orders. A breakout could lead to a move of approximately points.
Neckline Position: The bar is currently at the neckline in a bear flag position.
Bullish Requirement: Bulls need a bull bar to overtake it with a bullish trend setup.
Bearish Control: Bears are currently controlling the auction, aiming to continue the downward trend.
Clear Market Signals: Bulls need a better body. If you are not seeing the clue in the market, then you need to analyze the market action.
Observations
Strongest Bar: The most recent bar is the strongest with momentum, suggesting significant directional conviction.
Target Closure: The target will likely be closed. Remember, if the bar is extended, traders will attempt to achieve average prices.
Wick Size: The wick size is too high, making it unreliable. It only tells a partial story. Remember to measure range with bodies for more accurate assessments.
Trading Time
Reversal Confirmation: Always trade after observing five or more reversals before a swing up or down is established.
Scaling Strategy: After testing is complete, you can scale into the market for swings either up or down, provided you have the necessary momentum.
News
Market Influence: News events are currently causing push and pull in the market, affecting short-term price movements.
Key Metrics
Critical Area: The market needs to fall down to this area to establish a new high. If you bought, you already have scalp opportunities.
Breakout Strategy: If you are too slow, you can still capitalize on a breakout.
Momentum Caution: Monitor for good momentum but remain cautious.
Shallow Buy: Watch if the buy is not shallow. Expect heavy buying and pushback into the area.
Trader Traps: Both bears and bulls are trying to manipulate entries to get you out of your positions.
Trading Range: There is currently a trading range in the market action.
Final Conclusion
Break-Even Trades: A lot of trades are still likely to result in break-even scenarios.
Wait-and-See Approach: Market participants haven't fully committed yet and are waiting to see how the situation plays out.
Breakpoints
Bar One: The market needs to move around bar one. If it reaches the double top and gets rejected, it will need to retest the lows again. However, the market has a lot of buyers.
High Targets: The high could reach 73.50, with a higher level at 74 to 74.50.
Buyer Presence: Many buyers are looking to bring the market up again if they continue to close above the 74 area.
Bear Struggle: Bears are present but not achieving significant gains, indicating a need for more bullish momentum.
Momentum Requirement: Better momentum is needed to reach higher targets.
Entry Conditions: If a buy above occurs above the close and open of open three, the setup can still work but may result in break-even.
Additional Points
Midpoint: If the market moves over the midpoint, that is a positive sign.
Bar Two: The market is currently below bar 2.
ATR Strategy: After capturing Average True Range (ATR) scalps, consider swinging to a point move. If you scalp nine to ten points, you might need to reduce your position before it swings or retests.
Bear Selling Target: Is this a 1, 2, 3 push target for bear selling? Given that there might be more sellers than buyers, you can consider selling now if the trade aligns with your strategy.
Trader Traps: The 8:32 mark indicates where traders are getting trapped.
New Sales: In the one and two many bars, new sales are needed to lead the market. Watch if the market moves below bar 3.
Buyer Presence: Remember that there are buyers below bar one. If the bulls close, those buyers are still in play.
Critical Testing Period: The market is currently in a critical testing period. Watch what happens as it starts to move down from this high.
Additional Observations
Green Candle: There is not a big green candle, so be wary of what is happening.
Pullback Strategy: This setup might not be effective with only one bar, suggesting that two pullbacks might be a better strategy.
Remember: Two ATR IS FIVE AND TEN
Pullbacks Strategy: Four pullbacks did occur. Then you should restrategize from three.
Target Zone: Look at the 75 and 76 area as a target is being created.
Reversals: These are reversal areas within this range.
Remember, machines are trading bots with a 20 points with a stop underneath for a two-hour win.
Market Analysis into Final Hour
Scaling Strategy: If you can scale high, look at what has happened. Then buy lower to capitalize on the move. That is what occurred.
Money Management: Review this to understand how this was managed.
Bear and Bull Success: Both bears and bulls have been active, with bulls buying to make significant gains.
Momentum Targets: The targets are three bars and four momentum.
Target Identification: Identify the target using the red lines with bars. Aim for a 1R profit or more than two.
Smart Market: Most markets may behave intelligently.
Increasing Buyers: There are likely more and more buyers entering the market.
Stop Placement: A stop is placed to improve the setup. There are bull bars that keep forming, indicating continued bullish momentum.