Hurricane Forecasts/Hazards

Hurricane Terms

  • Tropical Storm: Winds above 39 mph.

    • These can be damaging and can carry as much rain as a hurricaine

  • Hurricane: Winds above 74 mph

    • Damage to structures is possible, storm surge may form

  • Major Hurricane: Winds above 110 mph

    • Significant damage to structures possible, large storm surge likely

  • Watch: Tropical storm (or Hurricane) force winds are possible- issued 26 hours in advance of arrival

  • Warning: Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) force winds are likely to be issued 36 hours in advance or arrival

Hurricanes Move

  • In the atmosphere, hurricanes move with the broad-scale flow

  • We can use the same models we use to predict the weather to predict hurricane's motion

Hurricane Forecast Charts

  • Forecast Cone: Gives likely path (and range) for the next 3 or 5 days

    • Effects are felt well outside the cone

  • Wind Probability: Gives the chance of experiencing Tropical Storm force winds in the next 5 days

  • Wind Arrival: Guves time of arrival of first TS winds

Hurricane Categories

  • The Saffir-SImpson scale

  • Tropical Depression: < 39 mph winds

  • Tropical Storm: 39-74 mph winds

  • Hurricane: (major hurricanes in blue)

    • Category 1: 75-95 mph

    • Category 2: 96-110 mph

    • Category 3: 111-129 mph

    • Category 4: 130-156 mph

    • Category 5: over 157 mph

Hurricane Season

  • Due to the dependence on warm water, Hurricanes are a summer-fall event, peaking August-October

  • Major Hurricanes peak in late August to September

  • Official Hurricane season is June 1 to November 30, although some storms happen earlier or later

Hurricane Alley

  • Warm water

  • Cyclonic (counterclockwise) wind shear

  • Tropical Waves

Know your Hazards

  • Wind

    • Trees and Buildings

    • Tornadoes

  • Rain

    • Flooding/Dam Evacuations

  • Storm Surge

Evacuation

  • Hampton is ver