Lecture 3. Jan 10. State Formation & Path Dependancy (continued)
Case Study: Nigeria
Population: 223.8 Million (2023)
Colonized by British in late 19th & early 20th century
British drew borders arbitrarily to bring together many ethno-linguistic and religious groups
Gained independence in 1960
Numerous coup d’etat, civil war (1967), repeated political violence since then
Very difficult to govern; patterns of violence and authoritarianism
Large diverse territory of many states, typographically, climatically, culturally, linguistically, ethnically
Oil rich
No particular ethnolinguistic group takes majority
Having vast ethnolinguistic groups in a state does not mean different groups will revert to violence against one another, but often does fragment a countri’s population, especially when political leaders and elites use ethnodiversity as a tool to benefit themselves by pitting groups against each other
Southern & central regions mostly Christian or Indigenous religions
Northern regions predominantly Christian
Correlation between distribution of Islam and distribution of wealth in that Islam heavy regions tend to receive the least wealth from the Nigerian government
Southern regions tend to receive more governmental support than North
When people who feel marginalized/short changed such as in this case, violence often occurs, which is why Nigeria has a violent history, more recently to emergant of radical Islam group Boko Haram
Boko Haram
Radical Islamic militant group in northeast Nigeria founded in 2002; split in 2015 but remains powerful
Began significant armed activity in 2009
Name translates roughly as “Western education is sacrilegious”
Perpetrator of many murderous attacks on civilians & high profile kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls from Chibok, gained international attention (2014)
Rejects Nigerian governments authority, want to establish own political system
Initially identified themself with Al Qaida
Has more switched its allegiance to ISIS, as ISIS gained more power than Al Qaida
Consider themselves a Nigerian branch of ISIS
Most attacks harm Nigerians in their own area, but also attacks capital and other major cities, government stations and police stations
Primarily located in Northern Nigeria, but because of weak borders (not patroled) Boko Haram spreads into Niger, Chad and Cameroon, often hiding in forests in northern Cameroon, hard to detect in the air
Attack communies in Niger and Chad, steal, pillaging & kidnapping (force victims to join their movement under threat of death)
There are many other radical Islamist groups in other parts of Sahelein West Africa
Leader: Abu Bakar Shekau
Boko Haram released video after kidnapping to mock weakness of Nigerian government and ability to respond to crisis despite large economy, land mass and population, affected Nigeria’s nobility and status in the region
De Facto vs. De Jure Statehood
Latin terms
De Facto statehood = State to exist in fact
De Jure statehood = State to exist in law
In international politics refers to whether or not a country has international recognition
Many De Jure states have weak systems/societies and many De Facto states have strong systems/societies
De Facto statehood: Somaliland case
Somaliland is a territory within the broader land formally under control of Somalia
Somalia was functional from independence in 1960s but collapsed (gov stopped working) into factional fighting (violent conflict) in 1989, no successful government since (just kind of started to work now in capital with UN and other international actors providing money & security in form of soldiers and guards, but still quite fragile)
1990-Present: Various armed groups have fought for territory, against each other & external states eg. Ethiopia, Kenya, African Union
Somaliland (Former colony of UK) Somolia (Former colony of Italy)
Does not have De Jure recognition
No formal (De Jure) independence, but informally (De Facto) independent since 1991
Somaliland is much a much more powerful de facto state than Somalia having an effective policeforce, collecting taxes, enforcing customs, border controls, strong centralized government, robust economy, effective security forces, popular legitimacy (citizens respect authority of their government) ect.
Somaliland works like a state but nobody recognizes it (De Facto but not De Jure)
Not many new states have recently emerged in the Global South
De Jure statehood: Somalia case
Strife-torn since 1989
Central government (est. 2012) exists only with external support
Lacks capacity
Lacks local legitimacy & has little capacity
Plagued by rebels, (in particular Al-Shabaab; declared allegiance to ISIS and acts as a branch of ISIS) & insecurity
Has international recognition (De Jure statehood recognition)
Dilemma, because if independence was given to states immediately when they became strong De Facto states, separatist regions of countries would demand to become a De Jure state (eg. Quebec, Catolonia)
Non-State Actors: Rebel Groups
Weak states may leave a vacuum for armed non state actors: rebels
Usually seek to control territory & overthrow governments
Sometimes more successful than actual governments
Successful rebel groups often behave like states: collecting taxes, setting & enforcing laws
Only a rebel group if willing to use violence to achieve goals
Rebel groups often emerge to challenge weak, illegitimate, ineffective, corrupt or brutal governments
Civil wars are more numerous than interstate wars because of the phenomenon of weak states combined with states that don’t have the support of majority/important subset of a population. Creates a cycle of division that I can’t understand right now because I’m too tired so I’ll come back later
According to Charles Tilly, war between states creates stronger states but war within states creates weaker states
Frequent war within states (civil) in global south since 1945 (when many of these states gained independence) created many weak states in that region