08 - Ethics of Population and Resources (sl)

Lecture Overview

  • Title: Engineering, Ethics and Society: Ethics of Population & Resources

  • Instructor: Dr. Gershon Weltman

  • Course: Engineering 183EW, UCLA

Lecture Content

  1. World Population: History, Factors, Projections

  2. Resources and Consumption: Water, Land, Energy

  3. Energy Sources and Evolution

  4. Viable Energy Alternatives

  5. Utilitarian Benefits of Affluence

  6. Utilitarian Costs of Affluence

  7. Ethical Dilemma: Today’s “Tragedy of the Commons”

  8. A Global Ethical Framework

  9. Ethical Duties of Engineers

  10. Difficulty of Predicting

Population History

  • Timeline:

    • Universe: ~13.8 billion years

    • Earth: ~4.5 billion years

    • Bacteria: ~2.5 billion years

    • Multicellular Biota: ~600 million years

    • Human Species: ~2 million years

    • Homo Sapiens: ~150,000 years

    • Cognitive Revolution: ~70,000 years

    • 1 Billion People: ~200 years ago

  • Rutger Bregman Quote: If life were condensed to a single day, humanity arrived at 11:59 PM.

Recent Population Dynamics

  1. Population Growth Over the Last 12,000 Years:

    • Growth from ~200 million to over 6 billion.

  2. Three Eras of Population Growth:

    • Tool Making Era: (5000 B.C.)

    • Agricultural Era: (10,000 B.C.)

    • Industrial Era: (1900 - 2021)

Factors Contributing to Population Growth

  • Agriculture:

    • Fixed locations and local food production

    • Domestication of animals

  • Urbanization:

    • Need for shelter, water, energy, sanitation, and health services

  • Industrialization:

    • Availability of products and global economic growth

  • Advancements in Medical Science & Technology:

    • Cleanliness, antibiotics, hospitalization, nutrition, and longevity

Impact of Industrialization

  • Economic Growth:

    • Sharp increases in per capita GDP.

  • Malthusian Trap:

    • Observation by Thomas Malthus (1798): Pre-industrial advances led to brief population boosts, not better living standards.

Fertility Trends and Projections

  • Fertility Rate: Average number of childbirths per woman:

    • Above 2.1: Growth

    • Below 2.1: Decline

  • Industrialized nations below 2.1

  • Developing nations: Still above, but dropping.

Current and Future Population Projections

  • Current World Population: ~8 billion

  • Projections for 2100: 5.5 billion - 14 billion; By 2300: 2.3 billion - 36.4 billion

  • Long-term uncertainties exist due to many unpredictable factors.

Resource Consumption

  • Current Trends:

    • High and increasing resource consumption faster than population growth.

Water Resources Management

  • Availability:

    • 33% base flow available (10% remote, 23% accessible)

    • 67% flood runoff

  • Exploit remote water, flood runoff, and local reclamation.

Technological Contributions by UCLA

  • Water Treatment and Desalination Technologies:

    • Including extraction of lithium from brines and CO2 sequestration from seawater.

  • Purification and Energy Extraction from Wastewater:

    • Innovative bioreactor designs and processes for wastewater treatment.

Land Resources Concerns

  • Land Scarcity:

    • Increasing agricultural yields necessary for sufficiency as available land is limited

    • Issues caused by cropland used for biofuels.

Energy Resources

  • Types of Energy:

    • Fossil fuels, nuclear, renewables (solar, wind, hydro, bioenergy).

  • Refinement in Energy Technology:

    • Historical shifts in energy consumption and development influenced by societal needs.

Consumption Patterns and Behavioral Change

  • Impact of Economic Growth:

    • Direct correlation between economic affluence and resource consumption.

  • Electric Vehicles:

    • Green technology with debates on environmental impacts depending on electricity generation methods.

Ethical Duties of Engineers

  • Engineers must:

    • Analyze and predict situations.

    • Innovate and develop new technologies.

    • Communicate transparently with various stakeholders.

Summary

  • Global Challenge:

    • Complex interplay between population growth, resource consumption, and ethical dilemmas.

    • Importance of science and technology in addressing these challenges while balancing environmental sustainability and social equity.

  • Future Considerations:

    • The next 50-75 years will be pivotal in determining resource sustainability.