Study Notes on "What Does China Want?" by David C. Kang et al.
Introduction to China's Aims
Examination of the topic "What Does China Want?"
Key arguments made by authors David C. Kang, Jackie S. H. Wong, and Zenobia T. Chan
The context of China as a perceived global threat in U.S. policy and academic discourse.
Economic Growth and Military Modernization
China's Economic Growth
GDP growth from $1.2 trillion in 2000 to $17 trillion in 2023.
Military Advancements
Modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Increase in stockpile of nuclear warheads.
Annual defense spending close to $300 billion.
Centralization of power under Xi Jinping, foreshadowing an indefinite rule.
Perception of China as a Threat
Concerns regarding Chinese firm practices:
Restrictions on data and intellectual property rights.
Allegations of cyber theft.
Human Rights Violations
Restrictions on personal freedoms.
Territorial Disputes
Land reclamation and militarization in East and South China Seas.
Conventional wisdom in U.S. circles:
Belief that China aims to dominate globally.
Perspectives from U.S. Policy Experts
Elbridge Colby's viewpoint on Taiwan's importance as a potential military target for China.
Rush Doshi argues that China aims to displace U.S. global leadership.
Aaron Friedberg warns of China's aggressive territorial claims.
Stephen Walt points to China's aim for regional hegemony and influence in Asia.
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley's position on China's project to alter global order.
Anthony Blinken's assertion of China's intent and means to reshape international order.
Policy Responses to the 'China Threat'
Calls for heightened military expenditures and resolve against China.
Advocacy for expansion of regional alliances, regardless of a country's democratic credentials.
The debate mirrors earlier strategies centered on deterrence and military confrontation.
Preservation of U.S. interests through enforcing deterrent strategies, especially concerning Taiwan.
Three Key Assertions: Understanding China's Goals
China is primarily a status quo power focused on regime stability and sovereignty.
China’s aims are unambiguous and regional in nature.
China's goals are enduring and limited, not expansive.
Nature of China’s Aims
Unambiguous Goals
China prioritizes:
Sovereignty over borders.
Economic relations with foreign countries.
Concerns about territorial integrity in regions like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang.
Evidence suggests little desire for expansive global leadership or hegemonic ambitions.
Enduring Interests
Core concerns rooted in a historical context, dating back to the Qing dynasty and earlier.
Identifications with past grievances over territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Limited Aspirations
Not a growing appetite for military expansion; instead, maintaining current territorial claims.
Lack of evidence for intent to invade or conquer neighboring countries.
Analytical Approach
Methodology of assessing public statements and rhetoric:
Analysis of People’s Daily, speeches by Xi Jinping, and related CCP publications.
Use of computer-assisted text analysis to evaluate frequency and context of key themes.
Rhetoric and International Positioning
Analysis of terms and phrases used in Chinese discourse:
The term “struggle” mainly relates to domestic challenges.
“Rise of the East, decline of the West” as a justification for strengthening state capability rather than an assertion of dominance.
Consistent refusal to claim intent to replace U.S. global leadership.
Common Misconceptions
Mainstream U.S. understanding often:
Perceives China’s rise as having aggressive territorial ambitions.
Falsely connects Taiwan’s issue with an overarching desire to expand into other nations.
Conclusion: Re-evaluating the China-U.S. Relationship
Proposal for a cooperative framework rather than a militarized focus.
Focus on climate change, health pandemics, and sustainable development.
Recognition that both nations can benefit from collaboration on key global challenges without seeking military confrontation.
Need to address misconceptions regarding China’s aims to avoid unnecessary hostilities that could harm U.S. interests in the region.
Further Considerations
Discussion about ongoing and upcoming trade agreements in East Asia that do not involve the U.S. but may influence global economics and politics.
Emphasis on China's economic resilience and the imperative to understand its position more clearly for effective U.S. foreign policy.