Study Notes on Russia's War in Ukraine

The Zelensky Phenomenon: Youth, Social Media, & Democratic Dialogues in Ukraine

  • Participants:

    • Maya Patel

    • Abigail Kuchek

    • Lauren Nyquist

    • Dr. Mary Neuburger

    • Dr. Oksana Lutsyshyna

    • Matthew Orr

    • Matt Maldonado

    • Dr. Kiril Avramov

Geographic Overview

  • Bordering Countries:

    • Countries directly bordering Ukraine include:

    • Belarus

    • Hungary

    • Moldova

    • Poland

    • Romania

    • Russia

    • Slovakia

Outline on Ukraine's History and War

  • History of Independent Ukraine

  • War

  • Build Up to Conflict

  • Putin’s Claims

    • De-Nazification of Ukraine

    • Response to NATO aggression

    • Liberation and Reunification

  • 3+ Years of War

  • Broader Considerations

    • Stolen Children

    • International Forces

    • Civilian Targets/Critical Infrastructure

    • Global Food Supply

  • Future Frontiers

  • What’s Next?

Historical Context

  • Key Historical Landmarks in Ukraine and Russia:

    • The Desiatynna Church, dating back to 996, symbolizes Kyiv's rich history.

    • St. Sophia's Cathedral, dating back to 1011, is a critically significant architectural work in Ukraine.

Political Leadership Post-Soviet Union Collapse

  • Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has attempted to break free from Russian influence and strengthen ties with the West.

  • Notable Political Figures and Events:

    • Boris Yeltsin (Jul 1991-Dec 1999): Resigned; Putin became acting president.

    • Vladimir Putin: Served as Prime Minister and President in various terms from 2000 to the present.

    • Major Events:

    • 11/21/2013: President Yanukovich of Ukraine refused to sign an EU Association Agreement.

    • 2/21/2014: Yanukovich fled to Russia; Ukrainian parliament voted for impeachment.

    • 3/21/2014: Russia annexed Crimea, leading to Ukraine's political turmoil.

    • 5/25/2014: Ukraine elected Petro Poroshenko as president.

    • 6/27/2014: Ukraine signed an Association Agreement with the EU.

War Escalation and Humanitarian Impact

  • February 2022: The conflict significantly escalated, following Russian troop build-up on the border in December 2021 and failed de-escalation talks with the US.

  • The status of Ukraine post-invasion highlights severe humanitarian crises.

  • Key areas facing severe conflict include:

    • Bucha, Vyshhorod, and other communities affected by bombardments.

    • Civilian displacement, as documented by the U.N. Human Rights Office (OHCHR), underscoring the dire conditions and human cost of the ongoing conflict.

  • Casualty Statistics:

    • As of recent reports:

    • Over 13,883 confirmed civilian casualties.

    • 35,548 civilians injured.

    • Approximately 300,000 Russian military deaths.

    • Approximately 75,000 Ukrainian soldier deaths.

    • Total estimated military casualties (Russian and Ukrainian) are close to 400,000.

Broader Implications of the War

  • Global Food Security Implications:

    • The war impacts global supply chains due to Ukraine's critical wheat and crop exports, which account for a significant share (9%) of global wheat exports. $$

    • The conflict has severely reduced the area sown by Ukrainian farmers by 22%, leading to significant reductions in global food supplies with worldwide ramifications.

Future Considerations

  • 'Forever War' Scenario - Three Possible Futures:

    • This section examines potential future outcomes based on current trajectories within the conflict environment.

    • The document also touches upon the geopolitical realities reshaping international alliances and Ukraine's future.

Conclusions

  • The analysis of the