Magaloni & Kricheli - Political Order and One-Party Rule Notes

Political Order and One-Party Rule

Overview

  • One-party autocracies have significantly expanded during the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

  • These regimes are now the most common form of authoritarian rule, exhibiting more stability and economic growth than other types.

  • The article reviews existing literature and suggests directions for future research (1950–2006).

Key Concepts

  • One-party regimes: Include single-party (no opposition allowed) and dominant-party (opposition allowed, but no power alternation).

  • Single-party regimes: E.g., China, Vietnam.

  • Dominant-party regimes: E.g., Malaysia, Zimbabwe, Mexico (before 2000).

  • Significance: One-party regimes comprise 57% of authoritarian regimes; only 24% of transitions lead to democracy.

Research Avenues Proposed

  1. Analyze how autocrats balance threats from elites and masses.

  2. Investigate conditions leading to the establishment and collapse of one-party regimes.

  3. Examine the relationship between authoritarian elections and democratization.

  4. Study global and international influences on the spread of one-party rule.

Introduction

Historical Context

  • By the end of the 20th century, after the third wave of democratization, optimism for democracy grew due to the collapse of many authoritarian regimes.

  • However, this period also saw a rise in one-party autocracies, even as democratic transitions slowed.

Political Order Distribution (1950–2006)

  • Figure 1: Shows the prevalence of different political orders over time.

    • Predominantly autocratic, with a notable portion as one-party regimes.

Advantages of One-Party Rule

  • One-party dictatorships are shown to last longer, experience fewer coups, manage better counterinsurgency, and achieve higher economic growth compared to other authoritarian types.

Mechanisms of One-Party Rule

Functions of the Ruling Party

  • Bargaining Function: Dictators use the party to negotiate with elites to minimize threats.

  • Mobilizing Function: The party is used to garner mass support and maintain public cooperation.

Challenges in Literature

  • Functionalist Challenge: Existing theories do not adequately explain why autocrats choose to rely on parties instead of other structures.

  • Endogeneity Challenge: There may be external conditions influencing the creation of ruling parties that also impact regime survival.

Political Transitions (1950–2006)

Regime Change Patterns

  • 43% of regime transitions were shifts from one dictatorship to another.

  • Transitions are categorically more often authoritarian-to-authoritarian rather than democracy-to-authority or vice versa.

Types of Transitions to One-Party Rule

  1. From Military Rule: Offers a top-down approach to regain stability by mobilizing support.

  2. From Anarchy: Revolutions or civil wars often lead to one-party systems.

  3. From Democracy: Recent examples include Chavez and Putin. Democratic fallouts often morph into dominant-party rule rather than military rule.

  4. Between One-Party Types: Transitions can also occur within one-party systems.

Global and Geopolitical Influences

Impact on Authoritarian Stability

  • Changes in global trends influence regime transitions and stability.

    • Historical Contexts: Different patterns emerge during decolonization, the Cold War, and post-Cold War eras.

  • Table 3: Provides simulated long-term regime distributions under varying geopolitical conditions.

Conclusion

Future Research Directions

  • A comprehensive theory should explore:

    1. Interactions between elite bargaining and mass mobilization.

    2. Causes of party creation versus maintaining personal networks.

    3. Democratic outcomes related to authoritarian elections.

    4. Influence of global forces on one-party regimes.

Final Thoughts

  • One-party regimes can strengthen autocratic stability through effective resource distribution between elites and masses, navigating the 'guns vs. votes' dilemma.