Magaloni & Kricheli - Political Order and One-Party Rule Notes
Political Order and One-Party Rule
Overview
One-party autocracies have significantly expanded during the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
These regimes are now the most common form of authoritarian rule, exhibiting more stability and economic growth than other types.
The article reviews existing literature and suggests directions for future research (1950–2006).
Key Concepts
One-party regimes: Include single-party (no opposition allowed) and dominant-party (opposition allowed, but no power alternation).
Single-party regimes: E.g., China, Vietnam.
Dominant-party regimes: E.g., Malaysia, Zimbabwe, Mexico (before 2000).
Significance: One-party regimes comprise 57% of authoritarian regimes; only 24% of transitions lead to democracy.
Research Avenues Proposed
Analyze how autocrats balance threats from elites and masses.
Investigate conditions leading to the establishment and collapse of one-party regimes.
Examine the relationship between authoritarian elections and democratization.
Study global and international influences on the spread of one-party rule.
Introduction
Historical Context
By the end of the 20th century, after the third wave of democratization, optimism for democracy grew due to the collapse of many authoritarian regimes.
However, this period also saw a rise in one-party autocracies, even as democratic transitions slowed.
Political Order Distribution (1950–2006)
Figure 1: Shows the prevalence of different political orders over time.
Predominantly autocratic, with a notable portion as one-party regimes.
Advantages of One-Party Rule
One-party dictatorships are shown to last longer, experience fewer coups, manage better counterinsurgency, and achieve higher economic growth compared to other authoritarian types.
Mechanisms of One-Party Rule
Functions of the Ruling Party
Bargaining Function: Dictators use the party to negotiate with elites to minimize threats.
Mobilizing Function: The party is used to garner mass support and maintain public cooperation.
Challenges in Literature
Functionalist Challenge: Existing theories do not adequately explain why autocrats choose to rely on parties instead of other structures.
Endogeneity Challenge: There may be external conditions influencing the creation of ruling parties that also impact regime survival.
Political Transitions (1950–2006)
Regime Change Patterns
43% of regime transitions were shifts from one dictatorship to another.
Transitions are categorically more often authoritarian-to-authoritarian rather than democracy-to-authority or vice versa.
Types of Transitions to One-Party Rule
From Military Rule: Offers a top-down approach to regain stability by mobilizing support.
From Anarchy: Revolutions or civil wars often lead to one-party systems.
From Democracy: Recent examples include Chavez and Putin. Democratic fallouts often morph into dominant-party rule rather than military rule.
Between One-Party Types: Transitions can also occur within one-party systems.
Global and Geopolitical Influences
Impact on Authoritarian Stability
Changes in global trends influence regime transitions and stability.
Historical Contexts: Different patterns emerge during decolonization, the Cold War, and post-Cold War eras.
Table 3: Provides simulated long-term regime distributions under varying geopolitical conditions.
Conclusion
Future Research Directions
A comprehensive theory should explore:
Interactions between elite bargaining and mass mobilization.
Causes of party creation versus maintaining personal networks.
Democratic outcomes related to authoritarian elections.
Influence of global forces on one-party regimes.
Final Thoughts
One-party regimes can strengthen autocratic stability through effective resource distribution between elites and masses, navigating the 'guns vs. votes' dilemma.