Lecture Notes on Global Environment Politics and Contemporary International Order

Announcements

  • Final exam details:
    • In-person, closed book.
    • 90 multiple-choice questions.
    • Covers lectures, slides, and readings from week 2 to week 12.
    • Sample questions will be posted on wattle.
    • Date: June 6, 9-11 AM.
    • Bring a pencil and your reader.
  • ISAY grading: Grading will be completed early next week with feedback provided.
  • Availability: No more Zoom Q&A sessions, but email Michael or the instructor with questions.
  • Self-survey: Open until June 15. Provide feedback on learning experience.

Politics of the Global Environment

  • Environmental issues require global cooperation.
    • Climate change
    • Auto layer depletion
    • Air pollution
    • Water pollution
  • Global cooperation successes and failures.

Australian Perceptions of Environmental Issues

  • French survey across 26 countries:
    • Climate disruption of anthropogenic origin:
      • Brazil: >85%
      • China: ~81%
      • Japan: ~76%
      • Global average: ~73-74%
      • U.S.: below global average, 64%
      • Australia: 60% (more skeptical).
    • Cost of climate disruption damage vs. investment:
      • China: >80% believe damage is greater than the cost.
      • Global average: ~66%
      • Japan and U.S.: below global average.
      • Australia: 52-53% (lowest).
  • Climate change denial higher in developed countries.

Climate Change Denial

  • Global trend: rising climate change denial.
  • Denial machine:
    • Network of contrarian scientists.
    • Fossil fuel corporations.
    • Conservative think tanks.
    • Front groups.
    • Damages credibility of climate science.
    • Opposes government environmental efforts.
    • Well-funded by the fossil fuel industry.

Major Environmental Issues

  • Climate Change:
    • Long-term increase in global average temperature.
    • Human activities: greenhouse gas emissions from population growth, industrialization, and burning fossil fuels.
    • More frequent extreme weather events: wildfires, rainstorms, flooding, droughts.
  • Ozone Layer Depletion:
    • Ozone layer protects from harmful UV radiation.
    • Deterioration due to chemicals like CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) from spring cans, refrigerators, air conditioners, and packaging (before 1990).
    • Hole over Antarctic: cataract and skin cancer risks.
  • Species Extinction and Biodiversity Loss:
    • Australia: unique ecosystems and endemic species.
    • Extinctions across most of Australia.
    • Higher extinction risks for Australian mammals compared to global proportions.
  • Air and Water Pollution:
    • PM2.5: tiny particles (30x smaller than human hair width).
    • Deep lung and bloodstream penetration: breathing issues, heart disease.
    • Air pollution in China (especially northern China).
    • Smoggy conditions, yellow-gray sky.
    • Masks and air purifiers used.
    • Improved air quality due to government intervention (strict regulations).
  • Depletion of Water Resources:
    • Expansion of irrigated land.
    • Extraction of underground water for irrigation.
  • Deforestation:
    • Conversion of forests to agriculture or urban development.
    • Logging, mining, charcoal production.
  • Land Degradation:
    • Permanent or temporary lowering of productive capacity of land.
    • Severe food shortage.
  • Depletion of Natural Resources:
    • Nonrenewable resources: fossil fuels and minerals.
    • Overexploitation caused by rapid population growth and industrialization.

Addressing Environmental Issues Requires Cooperation

Transboundary Nature
  • Most environmental problems cross national boundaries (climate change, auto layer depletion, air/water pollution).
  • International cooperation is essential.
Negative Externalities
  • Costs suffered by a third party from an economic transaction.
  • Factory example: pollutants affect nearby residents' health and environment.
  • Environmental issues easily spill over national boundaries.
  • Solution: countries cooperate and reach agreements.
Tragedy of the Commons
  • Individuals acting in self-interest exploit a shared resource, depleting it.
  • Common pasture example: overgrazing leads to exhaustion.
  • Without rules and corporation, shared resources are overused and depleted.
  • Environment as a shared resource: overuse leads to pollution and global warming.
  • International cooperation needed for sustainable use.

Difficulties in Maintaining Multi Asset Corporation

Collective Action Problem
  • Good environment: public good (non-excludable and non-rivalrous).
  • Free-riding problem: countries wait for others to act.
  • Climate crisis mitigation: costly transition from coal.
  • Every country has an incentive to free ride.
Distributional Conflicts
  • Uneven spread of costs and benefits.
  • Climate change example:
    • U.S. largest emitter (25% of historical emissions).
    • China: 12.7%, EU: 22%.
    • African countries: 3%.
  • Mismatch between responsibility and vulnerability.
Domestic Distributional Politics
  • Environmental regulations create winners and losers.
  • Fossil fuel industry example:
    • Denial machine undermines corporation.
    • Lobbying against climate change agreements.
    • Trump administration withdrew from Paris Agreement (protecting coal industry).
  • Trump's 2017 speech highlights negative impacts on the domestic coal industry.
  • Drill Baby Drill.

International Environmental Agreements (IEAs)

  • International treaties that facilitate cooperation on global environmental challenges.
  • Regulate/manage human impact on the environment.
  • Commissions (core treaties) and protocols (add-ons).
  • Conventions: meetings where agreement is reached.
  • Protocols: supplemental amendments to conventions.
Examples of IEAs
  • Climate Change:
    • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 1992.
    • Kyoto Protocol (1997): developed countries committed to legally binding emission reduction targets.
    • Paris Agreement (2015): limit global temperature rise, mandatory for all countries.
  • Auto Layer Depletion:
    • Vienna Commission for the Protection of the Auto Layer (1985): framework agreement.
    • Montreal Protocol (1987): phasing out ozone substances, especially CFCs.
  • Species Extinction and Biodiversity Loss:
    • Rumsar Commission (1971).
    • Commission on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (1973).
    • Commission on Biological Diversity (1992).
    • Cartagena Protocol (February).
  • Air Pollution:
    • Condition on Long Range Air Pollution (1979).
    • Helsinki Protocol (1985): sulfur.
    • Sofia Protocol (1988): nitrogen oxide.
  • IEA database project: comprehensive data set for international environmental agreements. (3,749 agreements)
Functions of IEAs
  • Standard Setting:
    • Specify goals, rules, and timeframes for signatory countries.
    • Paris Agreement example: overarching goal, nationally determined contributions (NDCs), transparency, and dynamic targets.
  • Information Provision:
    • Scientific bodies provide information on environmental practices.
    • Supervisory bodies observe environmental behaviors.
  • Reduction of Transaction Cost:
    • Create a multilateral forum for discussion and negotiation.
    • COP (Conference of Parties): annual meetings.
  • Reputation Management:
    • IEAs make it costly to break commitments by damaging reputation.
    • Emission reduction targets are transparent.
Success of the Montreal Protocol
  • According to Coffey Anon, it is perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date
  • Focuses on phasing out ozone-depleting substances like CFCs.
  • Measurable environmental impacts: reducing ozone-depleting substances.
  • Universal participation: all UN member states have ratified.
Failure of the Kyoto Protocol
  • The first addition to the UNFCCC.
  • Developed countries commit to a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Developing countries were not required to limit their emissions.
  • Goal of the Kyoto Protocol: achieve a collective reduction of 5.2%5.2\% in carbon emissions by 2012 relative to the 1990 level
  • Emission reduction was already well below the 5.2%5.2\%.
  • 12.5%, was not the result of proactive efforts.
  • the collapse of the Soviet Union
  • There was actually a substantial increase relative to the 1990 level.
  • The United States, never ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Direct Sanctioning Mechanism
  • Montreal Protocol, countries are required to reduce the production and consumption of CSEs. If countries fail to reduce or eliminate CFCs, trade restrictions would be imposed.

Contemporary International Order

  • Defined as a set of rules and power structures that establish patterns of interaction including.
    • Use of force.
    • Economic Exchange.
    • Legitimate regime Types.
    • Basic standards for human rights.
  • The Liberal International Order:
    • Led by The United States after World War II.
    • Promotes liberal principles: lower trade barriers, open borders, liberal democracies, human rights.
    • Institutionalized in international organizations and treaties (UN, GAT, WTO, IMF, NPT).
  • Under Pressure Today
    • Opponents: Iliberal states and non-state actors, workers harmed by foreign competition, cultural traditionalists.
    • Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine
  • The Rise of Populism

Populism

  • Political movement speaking for the people against elites
  • Divides society: pure people vs. corrupt elites (politicians, business leaders, intellectuals, media).
  • Bypasses/attacks established institutions.
  • Opponents framed as illegitimate enemies of the people.
  • Promotes The Us versus them rhetoric.
  • Focuses on grievances of the dominant group: native-born majority losing power due to elites, minorities, foreigners.

Democratic Backsliding

  • State-led debilitation/elimination of political institutions sustaining democracy.
  • Incremental erosion piece by piece.
  • Intentional concentration of executive powers.
  • Decline affects multiple essential qualities of democracy.
  • Elections become less competitive, political participation reduced.
  • Checks on executives are weakened.

Donald Trump

  • Populist leader: voice of the people against elites.
  • U. S. Democracy experienced backsliding during Trump's term.
  • Less respect for separation of powers, free press, independent judiciary, impartial justice, legitimacy of elections.

Shaping Foreign Policy

  • Trump's foreign policy promotes American first principles.
  • Trade Policy: trade barriers to protect workers, trading balances.
  • Disregards the force of markets (comparative advantage theory).
  • Trump also abandons multilateralism: international institutions are taking advantage of The United States.
  • Trump promotes transactional diplomacy: trades alliances as business deals taking what he can get from allies
  • Trump's immigration policy: not consistent with the liberal international order

The Rise of China

  • Worgansky: Soviet Union was not the real threat to The United States instead, the real threat was China.
    • Large Population
    • A potential for real economic efficiency
  • Explosive economic grown
    • From 1992 to 02/2008, China experienced a double digit annual GDP growth.

China's Economic Miracle

  • Significant shift in the global power structure.
  • Potential to overtake The United States as the world's largest economy.

China's Foreign Policy

  • Peaceful Rise: integrating itself into the international system through organizations.
  • Shift to Assertive Term: more confident, bold and more willing to challenge the existing international order.
    • aggressive in its territorial disputes, island building in the South China Sea and also increasing pressure on Taiwan.
    • Increased regional economic presence through the launch and implementation of the Build and Road Initiative.
    • increasingly opposed The United States in existing international institutions like UN, IMF and WTO.
  • Dual-Strategy: economic engagement and military deterrence
    • Maintain a large military presence in China in Asia through its military bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam
    • network of bilateral alliances and security partnership in the Asian Pacific region, which is called the hub and spoke system.

Trump's Policy Towards China

  • In 2017 there was a major shift in US policy towards China.
    • Trump moved away from economic engagement towards economic containment.
    • Trump moved away from multilateralism towards unilateralism.

Why it is so hard for The United States and China to reach a mutually acceptable compromise across so many issues

Bargaining Model for War
  • Rooted in power shift that can be explained by the bargaining model for war
  • (I introduced after the Tuition Break).
  • Because power shift creates commitment problems.
Difficult To Figure Out China's Intentions
  • Intentions can change unpredictably.
  • Changes in the leadership and in domestic socioeconomic structure can lead to changes in China's goals and interest.
  • Rising states have strong incentives to misrepresent their real intentions.
  • China may not be a hostile raising power at all.
  • The insecurity might motivate China to take proactive actions for defensive reasons.
    • Build up its military.
    • China feels very threatened, insecure.
    • It will develop domestic tech industries in order to reduce its dependence on the West.
    • It will control strategically important territory like islands in the South China Sea.
    • build up its military.
      *So assertive China could either indicate a revisionist China that intends to challenge the existing international order, that intends to reshape the existing international system or it could indicate an insecure China that intends to comply with the existing international system, but it's trying to protect itself.