2026 International Agenda and Global Outlook

January 2026: Euro Area Expansion and Global Leadership Changes

• Bulgaria Joins the Euro Area: On January 1, 2026, Bulgaria is set to become the 21st member state of the euro area.     * Accession Stages: The process progressed in distinct phases, with Sofia joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) in 2020. In July 2025, the Economic and Financial Affairs Council granted the final approval.     * Currency Iconography: Euro coins issued by Bulgaria will feature specific national symbols:         * The Madara Rider: A UNESCO-listed rock relief.         * Paisius of Hilendar: A Renaissance monk and the author of Slavo-Bulgarian History.         * Ivan of Rila: A monk regarded as the protector of Bulgaria.     * Convergence and Political Instability: Bulgaria met all required convergence criteria despite a volatile political climate. Following the seventh parliamentary election in 3.5 years (October 2024), the Zhelyazkov government formed in January 2025. By November 2025, mass protests against rising taxes and prices forced the withdrawal of the 2026 budget and the Prime Minister’s resignation. New legislative elections and a presidential election (to replace the ineligible incumbent, President Radev) are scheduled for 2026.
• Economic Forecasts: The OECD early December forecasts project the following growth rates for 2026:     * Euro Area: $1.2\%$ (down from $1.3\%$ in 2025).     * United States: $1.7\%$.     * China: $4.4\%$.
• World Economic Forum (WEF): Scheduled for January 19 to 23 in Davos under the theme "a spirit of dialogue." Donald Trump has confirmed his attendance following the removal of "woke" issues from the agenda.
• Other January Events:     * Start of the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the European Union.     * British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits China.     * Politician Hamza Mamdani becomes the Mayor of New York.

February 2026: Security Treaties and the War in Ukraine

• Fourth Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion: February 24, 2026, marks four years since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.     * Intensification of Negotiations: Efforts involve a 20-point plan drafted by Ukrainian, American, and European representatives. President Zelensky was received at Mar-a-Lago on December 28, 2025.     * Diplomatic Stance: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has labeled European capitals as the primary obstacle to peace. However, a resumption of dialogue is expected as Russia faces economic pressure and oil prices reach their lowest levels since the invasion began.     * Public Sentiment: A VTsIOM poll indicates $55\%$ of Russians believe the "special military operation" will conclude in 2026. Donald Trump reported a "productive phone call" with Vladimir Putin.
• Nuclear Arms Control: The New START treaty expires on February 5, 2026. Without an extension, the U.S. and Russia will have no legally binding limits or transparency obligations (inspections) for their nuclear arsenals.
• French Military Policy: February marks the 30th anniversary of Jacques Chirac’s 1996 announcement ending compulsory military service. In Summer 2026, France will launch a new 10-month "voluntary and purely military national service."
• Other February Events:     * Milano–Cortina Winter Olympic Games.     * Elections in Bangladesh.     * Chinese New Year: The Year of the Fire Horse.     * Munich Security Conference (February 13–15).

March 2026: China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and European Elections

• China’s Economic Framework: The National People’s Congress will formally adopt the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), initially unveiled by Xi Jinping at the Fourth Plenum in October 2025.     * Priorities: Focuses on "new high-quality productive forces," balancing growth with fairer income distribution, and improved labor productivity.     * 2035 Goal: Xi aims for China to reach the status of a "developed power" while maintaining "social stability" (often a euphemism for the repression of public protest).
• Elections in Europe:     * France: Municipal elections will serve as a test for the Rassemblement National and may clarify Marine Le Pen’s eligibility status.     * Germany: Elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.
• Cultural Event: The 98th Academy Awards ceremony.

April 2026: The Challenge to Viktor Orbán in Hungary

• Hungarian General Elections: Considered the most important election in Europe for 2026.     * The Rise of Tisza: A right-wing, pro-European party led by Péter Magyar (a former Orbán ally) has led the Fidesz party in polls since December 2024.     * Magyar’s Platform: Anti-corruption, investment in education and healthcare, and repairing relations with the EU to release frozen funds.     * Orbán’s Strategy: Potential move to assume the presidency and transform it into the country’s most powerful office to maintain control over state institutions and media.
• Other April Events:     * Elections in Peru.     * Donald Trump visits China.     * European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia.

May 2026: Lebanese Parliamentary Elections

• Electoral System: Based on the 1932 census (never updated), requiring parity between Christians and Muslims (64 seats each for a total of 128).     * Controversies: Debates over shifting to a single national constituency and the status of the diaspora vote.
• Political Climate: President Joseph Aoun (elected January 2025) has promoted a "new era of stability." The elections occur as Hezbollah’s influence wanes due to conflicts with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime.
• Other May Events:     * Presidential election in Colombia.     * Local elections in the United Kingdom and Welsh Parliament elections.     * 70th Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna.

June 2026: G7 Summit in Évian and World Cup Kickoff

• G7 Summit in France: Held from June 14 to 16 in Évian.     * Trade Focus: Rebalancing relations with China (whose 2025 trade surplus exceeded $1 \text{ trillion}$). Emmanuel Macron warned of protectionist measures if cooperation fails.     * Geopolitics: Discussions on Russia (potential return to G8 if peace is reached) and managing relations with Donald Trump.     * Economic Security: Following the Kananaskis 2025 summit, leaders will prioritize supply chain security and critical minerals.
• Other June Events:     * FIFA World Cup: Starts June 11, hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico.     * 10th Anniversary of the Brexit referendum (June 23).     * EU migrant solidarity mechanism enters into force (June 12).     * Elections in Ethiopia.

July 2026: Trade Renegotiations and Anniversaries

• USMCA Renegotiation: The trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico faces renegotiation. The U.S. is expected to demand stricter rules of origin and deeper supply chain integration.
• U.S.-China Tech Tensions: Structural tensions persist; China has banned its companies from purchasing Nvidia chips and continues to leverage its dominance in critical minerals.
• EU Diversification: The EU is pursuing trade agreements with India, Australia, Thailand, the Philippines, Mercosur, and Indonesia to offset U.S. tariffs and Chinese risks.
• Other July Events:     * 250th anniversary of the American Declaration of Independence.     * 75th anniversary of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.     * NATO summit in Ankara.     * Christopher Nolan’s film adaptation of Homer’s Odyssey is released.     * Irish presidency of the Council of the EU begins.

September 2026: Russian State Duma Elections and War Economy

• State Duma Elections: Russians will elect 450 seats in the State Duma.
• Economic Data: Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported that Russia devoted $5.1\%$ of its GDP to the war in Ukraine and $7.3\%$ to total "defense." Non-military spending dropped from $2.7\%$ to $2.2\%$ of GDP.
• Budgetary Focus: The total share of the federal budget for the army and security will reach $38\%$ in 2026 (down from a $41\%$ peak in 2024).
• Inflation Gap: A notable divide exists between perceived inflation and actual inflation reported by Rosstat and the Bank of Russia.
• Other September Events:     * Sweden Legislative Elections: Polls show Social Democrats ($34\%$), Sweden Democrats ($22\%$), and Moderates ($18\%$).     * German regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania.

October 2026: General Elections in Brazil

• Lula’s Bid: President Lula (age 81) plans to seek a fourth term.
• The Bolsonaro Opposition: Former President Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence and is barred from running until 2030. He has named his son, Flávio Bolsonaro (Senator from Rio de Janeiro), as the candidate.
• Internal Friction: Right-wing figures like pastor Silas Malafaia criticize Flávio’s lack of experience compared to Lula’s career, which began in the early 1980s. Flávio is also under judicial investigation for corruption.
• The Trump Influence: Flávio maintains a miniature likeness of Donald Trump on his desk and plans an international tour to meet with Trump and South American leaders like Chile's José Antonio Kast.
• Other October Events:     * Nobel Peace Prize.     * Elections in Israel, Latvia, and Denmark.     * India national census launch.

November 2026: U.S. Midterm Elections

• Congressional Composition: Republicans currently hold 220 of 435 House seats (the narrowest majority ever) and 53 of 100 Senate seats.
• The "Regularity in Defeat": Historical trends show the party winning the presidency has lost the last five midterm elections. Potential causes for Republican losses include radical immigration enforcement, cost-of-living issues, and an economic slowdown.
• Scope: All 435 House seats, one-third of the Senate, and 36 governorships are up for renewal.
• Other November Events:     * APEC summit in Shenzhen, China.     * COP31 in Antalya.

December 2026: G20 Miami Summit

• Venue: Trump National Doral Miami (December 14–15).
• Exclusive Guest List: Trump announced South Africa would not be invited (boycotting the boycott) while confirmed guests include Poland (the world’s 20th largest economy), Spain, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.
• Priorities: Refocused on unlocking economic prosperity by limiting regulations, reliable energy (U.S. LNG), and innovative technology.
• Online Presence: The G20 website currently features only a photo of Trump raising his fist and the slogan "the best is yet to come."