POLS102: How Does Democracy Emerge? How Does it Decline? 2

Introduction

The lecture will discuss the democratization process, focusing on democratic uprisings and their origins.
The People Power Uprising in the Philippines is highlighted as the first to be broadcast live on CNN and other network TV channels.
This uprising is considered significant because it occurred before social media's emergence, which has since added a new dynamic to such events.
The lecture aims to compare the pre-social media Philippines uprising with an Arab Spring uprising that occurred during the social media era.
The lecture will also explore how authoritarian governments have attempted to suppress social media as a tool for organizing uprisings.

Relative deprivation: A concept widely used in political science to explain various forms of revolutions, including democratic uprisings.
The five explanations for democratization will also be discussed.
The snowball effect, referring to the spread of democratic uprisings, will be examined.
The role of media in uprisings, particularly in the context of limited social media, will be explored.

Ferdinand Marcos, was the minister of defense in 1972.
In 1972, Marcos declared martial law, citing a communist gunman's attack on his defense minister as the reason.
The declaration led to military control and the end of democracy in The Philippines.
The United States did not intervene due to its involvement in the Vietnam War and domestic issues like Watergate.
Marcos ruled as a dictator for fourteen years before being overthrown.

Structural explanations: Modernization contributing to democracy, and relative deprivation leading to civil society uprising.
Culture.
Breakdown of a regime.
Civil society: The rise of opposition.
International influence.

Relative deprivation occurs when expectations are not met by what is actually received.
Revolutions are more likely in countries where people are somewhat better off, not in the poorest countries, due to relative deprivation.

When economic expectations are low and economic performance is poor, there is no revolutionary gap, because expectations are being met.
Economic performance does not meet expectations due to a recession which leads to a revolutionary gap aka relative deprivation.
The wider the gap between expectations and what people receive, the more likely an uprising is to occur.
Revolutionary gap can occur due to unhappiness about political changes.

Ferdinand Marcos was elected in 1965, promising land reform and gaining US support.
He was reelected in 1969, but by 1972, he declared martial law, using a staged attack as justification.
The United States initially remained silent, valuing its military bases in The Philippines.
Marcos used American aid to fight communism, but the communist population grew, which Marcos used to get more aid.
By the 1980s, American opinions on Marcos diverged, with the military supporting him for the bases and the State Department and CIA warning of a potential revolution.
President Ronald Reagan considered Marcos a personal friend, complicating the situation.

In the late 1970s, Jimmy Carter linked aid to human rights, leading Marcos to declare a policy of normalization to gradually eliminate martial law.
In 1981, Marcos held elections with the opposition boycotting, and he cheated to win.
In 1983, Benigno Aquino returned to The Philippines and was assassinated at the airport, an event widely blamed on the government, leading to huge protests.
Aquino's mother left his body as it was, uncleaned, so people could see what had happened to him.

Marcos appointed a judge to investigate Aquino's assassination and called an election in 1984 to appease Americans.
The opposition was divided, and Marcos cheated again to win.
The Agrava report implicated the military in Aquino's murder, but Marcos dismissed it and acquitted the military head in a friendly court.
Marcos called for another election which led to Corazon Aquino, Benigno's wife, stepped forward.
Conditions to run:
- Opposition has to unite.
- 1,000,000 signatures on a petition asking her to run for president.

During the election, Cardinal Sin supported Aquino, and the Catholic Church backed her.
The election results were monitored by the government and a private organization, with Radio Veritas broadcasting the independent counts.
When computer operators walked out due to discrepancies, it became clear Marcos was cheating again.
NAMPRO declared Aquino the winner, but Marcos claimed victory.
This led to soldiers planning a coup against Marcos.
The soldiers announced their support for Aquino on the radio.
Civilians, organized by the Catholic Church, surrounded the military bases to prevent Marcos' troops from attacking pro-coup soldiers.
Marcos sent troops, but they were met with flowers and prayers, halting their advance.
Radio Veritas was shut down, but Radio Bandido continued broadcasting.

Helicopter gunships turned in support of the rebels and began negotiating with the rebels all the way in.
Troops from the bases took over a TV station, announcing Marcos' defeat and Aquino's victory.
Marcos fled to exile in Hawaii, ending the dictatorship.

Cultural change: Not significant between 1972 and 1986.
Modernization: Uneven growth during the period.
Breakdown of the regime: The military and American supporters split.
Development of the opposition: Aquino mobilized a million supporters, with the Catholic Church playing a major role.
Relative deprivation: High levels of anger resulted from poor economic conditions and unmet expectations, and there was significant anger.

The Philippines experienced a recession in 1983 with negative growth.
The economic struggles contributed to a large gap between expectations and reality, fueling anger and protests.

Western Europe, Latin America, South Korea, and Taiwan experienced democratization.
Catholic countries fell apart.
The USSR and Eastern Europe followed suit.