Could there be an Election in 2022 or 2023_

Introduction

• Rishi Sunak is the 57th Prime Minister of the UK, currently facing pressure for a general election.

• The Conservative Party is behind in polls, making an election call seem risky for them.

• A general election can be called by the Prime Minister, Parliament, or the Monarch.

Calling an Election

By the Prime Minister

• After revoking the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the Prime Minister can now decide on the election date.

• Previously, the Act mandated elections every five years, limiting the Prime Minister's power.

• Historical prerogative powers allow the Prime Minister to call elections.

By Parliament

• During the FTPA era, Parliament could easily call an early election or require a two-thirds majority.

• Without the FTPA, Parliament cannot call elections directly, but can initiate a vote of no confidence.

• If the government loses this vote, it may lead to a general election if a new government cannot command confidence.

By the Monarch

• In theory, the Monarch can call an election but this would be unprecedented and likely trigger a constitutional crisis.

• Historical reluctance of the Monarch to engage in politics makes this option very unlikely.

Current Political Landscape

• The Conservatives are polling poorly against Labour.

• Sunak is likely aware of the risks of calling an election given the current polling situation.

• With a Conservative majority in Parliament, the likelihood of a vote of no confidence is minimal due to job security concerns.

Conclusion

• While there are mechanisms to call for an election, none are currently favorable for the Conservatives.

• The most plausible scenario is that they continue governing until the next scheduled election in 2024.