Study Notes on Aid Programs in Afghanistan

Introduction to Aid Programs in Afghanistan

  • Article: \"To win 'hearts and minds' in Afghanistan, some aid programs worked better than others\" by Jason Lyall and Rebecca Wolfe (Published February 19, 2018)

  • Context: Examination of U.S. aid effectiveness in Afghan conflict.

  • Budget Context: The 2019 White House budget allocated $16.8 billion for foreign assistance aimed at reducing conflict.

  • Importance of foreign assistance for U.S. security interests, particularly in conflict zones like Afghanistan.

Economic Interventions to Counter Insurgency

  • Objective: To win the “hearts and minds” of populations in conflict affected countries (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq).

  • Types of Interventions:

    • Livelihood training

    • Employment programs

    • Cash-for-work opportunities

    • Increasingly, unconditional cash transfers to specific populations.

  • Rationale:

    • Poverty leads to vulnerability to insurgent recruitment.

    • Improving economic prospects is believed to help redirect support towards the government and away from insurgents.

    • Economic development raises opportunity costs for joining armed rebellion.

Findings from the INVEST Program in Afghanistan

  • Researchers: Jason Lyall, Kosuke Imai, and Yang-Yang Zhou

  • Focus: Evaluated the Introducing New Vocational Education and Skills Training (INVEST) program in Kandahar, which provided vocational training and cash transfers.

  • Study Design:

    • Sample: 2,597 youths randomly assigned to four groups.

    • Group 1: Vocational training only.

    • Group 2: Cash transfer only ($75 via cellphone).

    • Group 3: Both vocational training and cash.

    • Group 4: Control group (no intervention).

    • Measurement of outcomes occurred two weeks after, and again seven to nine months post-program.

1. Economic Impact

  • Effect of Vocational Training:

    • Modest improvement: Participants reported more cash earned and more days worked compared to non-participants by the seven to nine month mark.

  • Effect of Cash Transfers:

    • Little to no increase in economic activity.

    • Those receiving cash with vocational training did not show additional benefits compared to training alone.

2. Support for Combatants

  • Hypothesis: Economic well-being improvement would reduce support for violence.

  • Findings:

    • Minimal relationship between improved economic conditions and support for the Afghan Government or Taliban.

    • No change in support for combatants post-program, irrespective of who received vocational training.

    • Cash transfer recipients expressed higher support for Taliban compared to non-recipients in the follow-up survey, showing a possible backlash against unmet job expectations.

3. Combined Intervention Insights

  • Combination of Vocational Training and Cash Transfers:

    • Reason for increased support for government:

    • Both economic signals likely demonstrate government responsiveness to immediate needs.

    • Participants showed:

    • 16.7% decrease in willingness to engage in pro-Taliban actions.

    • 20 percentage-point decrease in belief that using violence against the state is legitimate.

    • Increased belief in government competence and responsiveness.

Policy Implications

  • Importance of Multi-layered Policies:

    • Policy suggestions: Pairing short-term cash interventions with long-term vocational training for better results in counterinsurgency efforts.

    • Recognizes multidimensional reasons for reasons people support insurgents, addressing both short-term economic needs and long-term grievances.

  • Final Thought: Economic interventions should signal government commitment to welfare to effectively influence citizens' beliefs and behaviors towards supporting the state over insurgents.