China and Climatic Change

China and Climatic Change

Fanqi Lin, Department of Economic, SOAS, Week 10, Term 2.

Context

• China is the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and the largest producer/user of clean energy technologies.

• Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C is impossible without China (IEA 2021).

• Scholars debate China's role in the Green Transition, focusing on political economy dynamics and contradictions related to climate change.

Global Stocktake Report

• The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) report (September 2023) projects a 1.7-2.1°C global temperature rise by 2100 if national pledges are met.

• This projection is better than the 2011 projection of 3.7-4.8°C but still falls short of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target.

• Current emissions reduction pledges will result in only a 2% decrease below 2019 levels by 2030, significantly less than the 43% reduction needed to stay below 1.5°C warming.

Global Carbon Emissions and China

• China has been the largest carbon-emitting country since 2005, reaching 33% of global emissions in 2022.

• In 2022, developing countries (excluding China) accounted for 36% of global emissions, while developed countries (OECD) accounted for 31%.

• China, the rest of the developing world, and developed countries each contributed approximately one-third of global carbon emissions in 2022.

• China is positioning itself as a global leader in climate policy and clean energy development, becoming the largest producer/exporter of solar panels, wind turbines, EVs, and batteries.

• The US has increased tariffs on Chinese green technology.

Table 1. CO2 Emissions (excluding LULUCF, % of World Total)

• Sources: World Development Indicators.

• Notes: The 1960 and 1980 OECD figures are High-Income Economies data.

Principles of Global Carbon Emissions

• Factors to consider for identifying carbon emissions and reduction responsibilities:-

  • Global climate change results from both annual carbon emissions flow and accumulated stocks since the Industrial Revolution.

  • Developed countries' cumulative emissions far exceed those of developing countries.

  • Between 1850 and 2015, China's emissions were 12% of the world total, lower than the US (26%) or the combined emissions of the US, EU, and Japan (53%).

  • Carbon emission responsibility should focus on consumers more than producers.

  • China has been a large net exporter of industrial products during globalization.

  • Between 1850 and 2015, China's consumption-based carbon emissions were 11% of the global total, lower than the US (28%) or the combined share of the US, EU, and Japan (58%).

Table 2. Annual and Cumulative CO2 Emissions (Annual in 2015; Cumulative in 1850-2015)

• Sources: Hickel (2020)

Table 3. Cumulative (1850-1969) and Consumption-based (1970–2015) CO2 Emissions

• Sources: Hickel (2020)

Principles of Global Carbon Emissions

• Principle of Equality: Every human has an equal right to use the global atmosphere.

• Principle