invisible primaries and national party conventions
what is an invisible primary
Period before primary voting
Candidates build foundation of funding, public support + staffing
Goal: run successful primary campaign
narrowing the field
Fewer candidates in race due to poor public ratings/lack of campaign finance
Mike Pence dropped out Republican race in October 23 after strong debate performance but insufficient funds
Reducing candidates limits voter choices in primaries
Helps voters by narrowing the field to more viable candidates
If few candidates drop out, invisible primary has little effect
Early primaries may push more candidates to withdraw
2020: Democratic race narrowed during invisible primary but still offered many choices.
In 2016, only Sanders and Clinton made serious declarations, limiting choice.
Fewer candidates means less impact and more chances for a breakthrough.outsiders
outsiders
invisible primary helps establish candidate by developing media exposure, funding, campaign team
crucial for lesser-known candidates to visit states, attend debates, fundraise, build momentum
example: Barack Obama (2008)
emerged from being lesser-known against Hillary Clinton
eventually secured the nomination
Outsiders rarely succeed during invisible primaries
Dominated by well-known, well-funded, establishment figures
Invisible primary:
lengthens campaign
increases total resources required
better-known, financed candidates attract more funding
Obama (2008) is exception, not rule
2020, many lesser-known candidates failed to gain traction
determining winners and losers
Invisible primaries indicate likely winners/competitive candidates
Typically those leading in opinion polls + funding
Winner of invisible primary often becomes eventual primary winner
2016 examples:
Clinton + Trump were clear invisible primary winners
High fundraising
Strong public opinion polls
2020 example:
Biden had similar profile
Success in invisible primary helped him overcome weak start in actual primary
Invisible primaries donāt provide certainty about winners/losers
No voting occurs, making them less significant
2016 example:
Jeb Bush raised record amounts of money during invisible primary
Considered favorite but performed poorly in early primary states
Forced to drop out
2012 example:
Rick Perry experienced similar issues w poor performance
what about announcing the Vice President?
invisible primary stage is new, emerging in last 30 years.
historical context:
Until 1980: VP candidates chosen and announced at the national party convention.
Until 1956: Convention selected the running mate.
From 1960-1980: Presidential candidate selected and announced the running mate on the third day before the acceptance speech.
1984: Walter Mondale announced his running mate (Geraldine Ferraro) 4 days before Democratic Convention.
Subsequent Democratic nominees followed this practice.
Republican did not announce running mates early until 1996 (Bob Dole announced Jack Kemp the day before the convention).
2016: Both candidates announced their running mates three days before their national conventions.
strategies to choose a VP
balanced ticket
Balance in geography, experience, age, ideology, gender, race + religion
example: Obama chose Biden (aged 65) to balance his youthful 47 + 4yr Senate experience.
reverse example: Kamala Harris (aged 55) as Biden's running mate w only 4 years of Senate experience.
potential in gov
sometimes running mate chosen for what they might contribute to White House not campaign
ex: Bush (2000) selected Dick Cheney for Washington experience (White House Chief of Staff + Secretary of Defense).
ex: Trump appointed Indiana Governor Mike Pence in 2016.
party unity:
rarely adopted; nominee chooses a former rival as a running mate.
ex: Reagan (1980) selected George H.W. Bush to reunite the party after a bitter primary.
hypothetical: If Obama had adopted this strategy in 2008, he would have chosen Hillary Clinton; Trump might have selected Ted Cruz.
challenge: Former rivals often have incompatible political views and harsh exchanges make partnership implausible.
what are national party conventions
Starting Point for Presidential Campaign:
convention where party nominee for presidency is chosen + policy platform agreed upon
primary process (introduced in 1968) has made conventions more of a rubber stamp
poll bounce:
candidates aim for poll bounce from convention, often in swing state
examples:
2016: Trump in Cleveland (20,000 capacity).
2008: Obama in a Colorado football stadium (100,000 capacity)
do party conventions have any political significance
traditional roles
Convention Purpose:
formal meeting to select presidential + vice presidential candidates.
candidate needs over 50% of delegates to win.
Brokered Convention:
If no candidate achieves the 50%+1 threshold, delegates can switch votes, along w former presidents + party officials.
Delegate Role:
Delegates vote and determine the party platform.
2020 Democratic Policy Platform:
Universal public health insurance option.
Medicare negotiation for lower prescription drug prices.
Universal free COVID-19 tests, treatment, and vaccines.
Eliminate carbon emissions from power plants by 2035.
Increase federal minimum wage to $15 per hour.
convention outcome:
winner typically known well in advance of convention.
convention is stage-managed to support winner's chances of winning presidency.
platform selection:
winning candidate chooses own platform + not bound by floor policy votes.
brokered conventions:
has never been brokered convention
publicity + activism
Party conventions can be judged on impact ā positive publicity as a result of presenting themselves and policies or just by undermining the opposition. A poll bounce may also happen.
Party conventions can also enthuse activists and core supporters. Helps to ensure motivation to vote and that activists work hard during the campaign.
In 2020 the Democrats used key people and speech themes to attract publicity such as Barack and Michelle Obama.
Conventions are just a small cog in a big wheel. Other stages have bigger impacts and higher viewing figuresā¦
Many voters will be strong supporters of one party over another or have already made their mind up by this point.
The two conventions can effectively cancel each other out ā in 2020 there was no evidence of a poll bounce for either Biden or Trump.
reunite party
After the primaries which bring conflict, the losing candidates give speeches to declare their support for the winner. Effective āhealingā also boosts popularity.
Failing to reunite the party also can reveal divisions or make the winning candidate look weak.
In 2016, Ted Cruz gave a speech but failed to endorse Trump ā he urged people to āvote with their conscienceā instead. Whereas in 2020 the Democrat losing candidates all spoke in support of Biden, helping to show unity.
The impact on voting behaviour maybe limited. Voters may have developed support or opposition to certain candidates during the primaries. Any ongoing divisions are unlikely to sway voters. Cruz didnāt lose Trump the election after allā¦
People often vote for their party out of principle ā so conventions have a limited role.
In 2020 there were stronger views on the two candidates than at any other time since 1980. 69% of people in May 2020 stated they had either a strong favourable or unfavourable opinion of Trump. With less conventions because of COVID this does suggest the limited impact conventions have.