Deterrence Theory and Rational Choice

Rebirth of Deterrence Theory

• In the 1960s, the Beccarian model of offending was revived due to:
  • Scientific reviews showing minimal impact of rehabilitation programs on recidivism.

Four Waves of Modern Deterrence Research

• Aggregate Studies:

  • Use deterrence models to explain criminal behavior.
  • Highlight the importance of punishment certainty and severity, especially for homicide.

• Cross-sectional Research:

  • Studies perceptions of sanctions at one time point.
  • Uncertainty on whether perceptions affect behavior or vice versa.

• Longitudinal Studies:

  • Analyze perceptions of risk and severity along with behavior over time.
  • Introduced the Experiential Effect; an improvement over cross-sectional methodology.

• Scenario Research/Vignettes:

  • Addressed limitations of earlier methods by creating realistic hypothetical criminal scenarios.
  • Found to be the most accurate method for studying deterrence effects.

Formal and Informal Deterrence

• Formal Deterrence:
  • Effects from law enforcement, courts, and corrections.
• Informal Deterrence:
  • Influence of extralegal variables.

Rational Choice Theory

• Introduced by Cornish and Clarke in 1986 with "The Reasoning Criminal."
• Emphasized the psychological benefits of committing crimes (Ken Katz’s "Seductions in Crime").

Effects of Rational Choice Theory

• Studies from the late 1980s to mid-1990s indicated:
  • Official sanctions have some influence on criminal decisions; however, informal factors are more critical.
• Important variables:
  • Impact of behavior on loved ones' reactions.
  • Expected benefits, mainly pleasure from offending, crucially influence decisions to commit crimes.

Deterrence and Rational Choice

• Rational choice theory resonates with conservative perspectives but faces criticism from liberals.
• Significant research indicates informal social consequences are more influential than the formal justice system in deterring crime.